General Jack Keane, a retired four-star general and former Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, says the US-Israeli military campaign launched against Iran on February 28 is a calculated effort to dismantle the Islamic Republic’s political and military architecture.
General Keane, who now serves as chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, told RFE/RL in an interview the strikes, and reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation made for a “historic day of tremendous significance.”
Keane said the first phase of the operation has exceeded expectations, pointing to strikes that targeted senior leadership, missile systems, drone infrastructure, and key elements of Iran’s military command structure.
The campaign was designed to “strip away the entire political leadership and the structures that support it,” including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and to continue for “two to three weeks if necessary,” depending on how the regime responds, he added.
RFE/RL: General, first, what are your thoughts on this extremely busy day, including President Trump's confirmation that Khamenei has been killed?
General Keane: Well, I think it's an historic day of tremendous significance because President Trump and [Israeli] Prime Minister Netanyahu have made a decision that they're not going to permit the Iranian regime to continue to destabilize the Middle East, to continue to conduct proxy wars, to continue the ballistic missile development program and their nuclear program.
They have decided that they want to put the Iranian regime on a pathway to its collapse and return to a democratic form of government at some point. That is the decision that has been made and it's being reflected in this brilliant military operation that is being executed today.
So we're stopping the Iranians from having the capability to impose their will in the region, number one, and number two, setting the conditions so that the regime will collapse and eventually the people of Iran will take their country back.
RFE/RL: General, what is your assessment of this military operation, your sense of how day 1 has gone and what's going to happen next?
General Keane: In talking to our US Military leaders and Israeli military leaders, which I have been doing all day, the operation is exceeding their expectations in a couple of areas.
Number one, on the offensive side of it, the fact that we have killed 40 leaders to include the Ayatollah is exactly what we expected, but we absolutely did not anticipate that much success.
And I think what happened, so our audience understands, is this: Today was Ramadan; it was also Shabbat Saturday. There were also meetings taking place during the daytime. The Iranian military regime certainly is alert at night, believing the Israelis and the Americans would come for them at night. So the operation was actually planned for later tonight, and they accelerated it because of the opportunity to take down these leaders. So that opportunity was seized upon and very successful.
The second thing is we have had significant success against Iran's ballistic missile launchers and systems, rockets and drone storage, as well as defending against those attacks.
As of this interview, there's been no US casualties, despite the significant numbers of attacks. And there's been some Israeli casualties, I believe. I'm aware of one person killed and light casualties in terms of minor injuries. So the defensive systems by and large are working.
So the operation is moving on. We have planned this to go for two to three weeks if necessary. A lot depends on whether the regime stays intact or not or begins to fall apart.
If they capitulate and surrender and is willing to turn power over, then likely we would make a deal with them. But without that, we're going to continue to conduct this operation and pursue our military objectives.
RFE/RL: What challenges do you see lying ahead?
General Keane: I think there's two challenges. One, the defensive challenge of protecting so many bases in the region that the United States has, and certainly that is a formidable challenge. And all of those bases as you know, are in close proximity to Iran and particularly to the drones that they have.
The Iranian military is very good at producing drones. So our audience understands these drones that they hear about being used in Russia, the Shahed drones that attack the Iranian people, five, six, hundred every night, they're all Iranian drones made in Russia.
And that is what the Iranians are using. We call them the killer drones because it doesn't fly back. It's a weapon system and that's what they're using against the US bases. So that's a challenge. But so far we've been doing well with it. And certainly the Israelis are concerned about Iran's ability, can they mass a ballistic missiles attack and overwhelmed their defensive systems? They have not been able to do that.
And then the other challenge is it just takes time. Our plan so our audience understands we are not taking lightly how the regime holds on to power. So we have deliberate and methodical plans to strip away the entire political leadership and the structures that support it, the parliament, different agencies, the National Security Council, and then on the military and security side to strip away the IRGC. I'm not just talking about the leaders, I'm talking about the whole infrastructure that supports it, the technology that supports them. I'm not just talking about leaders. We're talking about everybody in the system.
The Basij militia, the police enforcement and also the defense industrial base, those firms that are out there, the manufacturing capability - this is a very comprehensive plan to take down all that the regime uses to sustain itself. And that is a challenge, but we are absolutely committed to it. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump have said yes to that plan and we are about executing that and we're in the very early stages of it.
RFE/RL: General, can this mission be accomplished without boots on the ground?
General Keane: Yes, in terms of what we want to do. I mean, people make too much out of this. The fact that the day after is ambiguous. When we put boots on the ground in Panama in ‘89 and Haiti in ‘94, Afghanistan 2001, and Iraq in 2003, the mission was to change the regime, to change the political order.
And we did that. But we also struggled in all four cases except Haiti, where we returned (Jean-Bertrand) Aristide to power, who was deposed. And the three of the other four cases, we still struggle in terms of who's the new government, how effective are they going to be, what kind of help do they need from us? What is the deposed regime going to do as a result of that? Are they going to continue to attack us?
So boots on the ground doesn't necessarily make it all that easier. There are still challenges there. I'm not dismissing the challenges that are facing us here without having boots on the ground. But in our judgment, we can accomplish what we want to do without taking the added risk to do that, which would mean we would have to occupy the country as a result of it. And we do not want to do that.
We want the Iranian people to occupy their own country and to run it.
So our audience understands, mostly authoritarian regimes when they turn over, they turn over to another authoritarian regime, admittedly, maybe less ideological, which I think may happen here, a little bit more nationalistic, but something that we'll be able to work with and bend to our will and then put that regime on a path to transition to elections and a democracy. That won't happen immediately, certainly. It's not happening immediately in Venezuela, although that's a different case study, to be sure, but it's a useful illustration.
So, yes, I'm not dismissing the challenges here, but if we're successful in taking down the leadership of this regime and decapitating the ability to sustain itself where it's negative in terms of its military capability and it's stripped of its power over the Iranian people, then I think we have really accomplished something. And we'll go through a process and a transition that will take some time. But look back at where we're coming from and where we're going and how marvelous that will be for the Iranian people.
I know they're sheltered, but I also suspect they're very celebratory. Certainly they want to make certain they're not harmed by what is going on by the Israelis and the US Military, and we have no intent to harm them whatsoever. But human beings make mistakes in war, and so do machines.
So people have to protect themselves and stay sheltered. But when this is over, they can rise, and rise they will, and I'm totally confident about that. And what a joy that's going to be when the world witnesses the rise of the Iranian people, supported by what Israel and the United States have done.
And credit, credit the Iranian people for their steadfastness and what they did to push back on the regime, taking to the streets by the hundreds of thousands, even though they were being wounded and killed by this diabolical regime, what bravery they have displaced. And as they take to the streets once again at the termination of hostilities, I know they will carry in their heart the message that their predecessors did as they were out on those streets and got bloodied doing the very same things the Iranian people would do again. Freedom for Iran is what we want, and we're on the pathway.
RFE/RL: General, your personal reflections, if this is indeed the end of the Islamic Republic, it's been 47 years. You've seen with your own eyes the dangers posed by this regime. What are your own personal views right now? Is there anyone who you're thinking about now?
General Keane: Well, I am thinking about my fellow Americans and my fellow soldiers and Marines that have been killed by this regime, starting back in 1983 when they took down the Marine barracks, 241 Marines and some civilians, and then the US embassy in Lebanon, the US embassy in Kuwait in ‘84, and then the Khobar Towers, which was an Air Force barracks that existed in Saudi Arabia. And they killed us and wounded us there. And then the Iranians designed a special enhanced IED (Improvised Explosive Devices) that penetrated our tanks and our most armoured fighting vehicles. At a minimum, they killed 600American troops that they targeted. And the reality is, the last commander we had, I asked him: What do you think the real number?”
This is General Lloyd Austin, who became Secretary of Defense under President Biden. He said, “General Keane, I think the number is closer to 2,000.” So they have killed thousands of Americans, and obviously they've killed considerably more, tens of thousands of Iranians. I sense of relief for Americans who sacrificed their lives and the families out there, as well as the Iranian families who have been tortured and killed and maimed by this regime and equally important, denied the freedoms and the way of life that people want to have for their children and their grandchildren.
We are knocking on freedom's door here. We're not there yet, but we're getting close and a sense of relief is coming as a result of it. Sometimes you just have to use military force to stop evil and to stop something that's bad. That is what drives President Trump. He's a peace president. That's his mantra. But he's not afraid to use force to stop evil from imposing its will on others, and that is what we're seeing happening here.
