WASHINGTON -- Efforts to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine have slowed to a crawl as the United States focuses on a widening conflict with Iran, leaving Ukrainians and their allies weighing what comes next for diplomacy -- and the battlefield.
Both Kyiv and Moscow confirmed on March 12 that another round of trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States has been postponed.
The discussions -- already held three times this year to discuss territorial questions and security guarantees following a potential cease-fire -- had been expected to resume in early March, according to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that scheduling the negotiations has become difficult because it is unclear when US officials will be able to participate.
Attention Shifts To The Middle East
The pause comes as the administration of US President Donald Trump directs major resources toward the conflict with Iran, including the redeployment of air-defense systems and other military assets to the Gulf region.
The shift has raised concerns in Washington that Ukraine could temporarily slip down the list of strategic priorities.
At a March 12 hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, lawmakers questioned whether the crisis in the Middle East could indirectly strengthen Russia’s hand.
“The clear winner is Vladimir Putin in Russia,” said Angus King, an independent senator from Maine.
Military officials acknowledged the strategic trade-offs.
Alexus G. Grynkewich, commander of US European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told lawmakers that resources -- including air-defense capabilities -- have been redirected toward the Middle East as Iranian drones and missiles threaten US forces and regional allies.
“There are always global trade-offs to the amount of security assistance that we can provide,” Grynkewich said, describing the level of support for Ukraine as ultimately a policy decision for the White House and Congress.
Rising oil prices linked to the crisis could also benefit Moscow, he noted, since Russia’s war effort is heavily funded by energy revenues.
With the price of oil above $100 per barrel, the Trump administration on March 12 loosened sanctions on the Kremlin by announcing a 30-day waiver on Russian oil stranded at sea.
“This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction,” according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Some analysts, however, say they expect more waivers and exceptions in the coming weeks if global oil prices remain high.
A Pause Or An End?
Former US diplomats who served in Ukraine under multiple Republican administrations say the shift in focus is likely just temporary.
William B. Taylor Jr., who led the US Embassy in Kyiv under both George W. Bush and during Trump's first term, told RFE/RL in an interview that it is realistic to expect the US administration would prioritize the Iran conflict for now.
“But when the Iran operation is over, then it will be very important for them…to make another attempt at forcing Putin to stop the killing,” Taylor said.
He emphasized that, for the moment, the White House’s focus is unavoidable. “I think the administration is going to be focused very clearly on Iran for the next several days or week,” he said.
Taylor argued that the United States still holds significant leverage over Moscow.
He suggested that renewed sanctions on Russia’s energy exports and expanded military support to Ukraine could pressure the Kremlin to halt the fighting -- even if a formal peace agreement remains unlikely.
“Putin is not going to sign a cease-fire,” Taylor said. “But he could be forced to stop the killing.”
Russia Losing Allies?
Another former ambassador says the Middle East crisis could ultimately weaken Moscow’s strategic position.
John E. Herbst, who served as US envoy to Ukraine during the presidency of George W. Bush, told RFE/RL that the Iran conflict is currently the dominant security issue for Washington.
“It’s pretty simple. The number one issue at the moment is the war on Iran,” Herbst said, noting that US troops are involved and energy markets are under pressure.
But Herbst also pointed to potential advantages for Ukraine.
Iranian drones -- long used by Russia against Ukrainian cities -- are now posing serious challenges for US and allied defenses in the Middle East. That has drawn new attention to Ukraine’s experience countering such weapons.
“The world now is talking in a very serious way about how good Ukraine’s drones are,” Herbst said.
Countries in the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are now exploring Ukrainian drone technologies and defenses, he said.
Ukraine’s Drone Leverage
Kyiv has already sought to highlight that advantage.
Zelenskyy recently said Ukraine had previously proposed a large-scale drone production and defense partnership with the United States, but the agreement never received final approval from the White House.
After Iranian drone attacks intensified in the Middle East, Zelenskyy renewed the offer -- suggesting Ukrainian experience in drone warfare could help protect US forces and allies.
Western officials increasingly describe Ukraine as a global center for innovation in drone warfare, shaped by years of fighting Russia.
Herbst said demonstrating those capabilities -- and assisting US partners facing Iranian drones -- is the best strategy for Kyiv while negotiations remain stalled.
Ukraine’s support could also carry political weight in Washington.
“Ukraine actually helps the United States,” Herbst said. “Ukraine helps our allies and partners in the Middle East.”
Meanwhile, the crisis could may also further complicate Russia’s relationship with Washington.
US and allied intelligence agencies have suggested Moscow may be providing Iran with information or technology used in attacks across the region -- allegations the Kremlin denies.
In the Senate, Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, said growing cooperation between Russia and Iran shows how global conflicts are increasingly interconnected.
Speaking on the Senate floor on March 12, he said Moscow’s access to Iranian drones has already shaped the war in Ukraine and warned that reports Russia may be assisting Iran’s attacks in the Gulf highlight the alignment among US adversaries.
“Iranian drones in Ukrainian skies have already made the connections between America’s adversaries crystal clear,” McConnell said.
For now, analysts say Ukraine faces a period of uncertainty.
The battlefield war continues, Russia’s economy remains mobilized for long-term conflict, and US diplomatic attention is fixed on Iran.
But former diplomats say the pause in negotiations may only delay the next phase of diplomacy.
Taylor said that when the Middle East crisis subsides, the administration will again face the same strategic challenge: ending what remains the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
Whether through negotiations, economic pressure, or expanded military support to Kyiv, he argued, Washington will eventually have to return to the question of how -- and when -- Russia’s war in Ukraine might finally be brought to an end.
