Russian and Ukrainian officials held a second day of US-brokered talks aimed at ending Moscow’s all-out war on Ukraine, as negotiators grappled with major sticking points about Ukrainian territory and security guarantees.
In a small sign of progress, the two sides agreed to another exchange of prisoners of war, something that has happened periodically over the course of the nearly four-year-old Russian invasion. Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy who has led the US-led talks, said on February 5 that 314 prisoners in all would be released.
Ahead of the Abu Dhabi meetings, both Russian and Ukrainian officials also hinted at glimmers of optimism to end the war, which Russia launched on February 24, 2022, and which has now killed or wounded nearly 2 million men on both sides.
Kirill Dmitriev, who is the Kremlin’s lead negotiator, said on February 5 there had been "progress" and positive movement. Ukraine's lead negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said the first day of discussions had been "meaningful and productive, focusing on concrete steps and practical solutions."
Despite the hints of progress, Russia continued to barrage Ukraine with drones and missile. On the eve of the talks, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks of the war, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and deepening misery for civilians suffering through a bitterly cold winter.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia's position remains unchanged and that it is "absolutely clear and well understood by both Kyiv and the American negotiators."
Markus Ziener, a former Moscow-based correspondent who is now a fellow with the German Marshall Fund said the prisoner swap signaled some progress.
"But I'm rather skeptical if we get to the nitty-gritty, actually, of the whole negotiations," he told RFE/RL. "So far, there is not really much that gives us hope that a settlement of the war is within reach."
After initially holding face-to-face talks in months immediately following February 2022, Moscow and Kyiv did not hold direct negotiations until May of last year. President Donald Trump has been frustrated that the war continues to rage, despite his making resolution of it a top foreign policy priority.
In addition to Witkoff, who has met seven times with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the past year, Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was also attending the talks. The meetings include current and former intelligence agency officials from both countries, and have focused narrow topics.
The gap between two sides’ positions has narrowed somewhat, with the main sticking point being the question of territory in Ukraine’s Donbas region that Kyiv controls but Moscow claims.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed setting up a demilitarized zone, possibly with European peacekeepers. Russia has decidedly rejected that option.
Kyiv is also seeking binding security guarantees from the United States and other Western allies, that would obligate outside countries to come to Ukraine’s aid if Russia were to attack again in the future.
Ukrainian political analyst Ihor Reiterovych urged the West to offer stronger guarantees for Ukraine—and to avoid a repeat of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. That agreement, signed by the United States, Russia, and Britain, guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for Kyiv eliminating its nuclear arsenal.
"I would put myself in the shoes of the Russian president: if I want to negotiate a peace settlement, I would not hammer Ukraine and pound them the way they do," Ziener said. "I would actually try to create a situation where you can reach a settlement."
"Given all the sacrifices Ukraine has [made] so far. I think it's very difficult for Ukraine to say, OK, well, we'll cede to the Russian demands and [then] so many lives have been lost in vain," he said. "So I believe that it's difficult really to find a settlement that would ask Ukrainians to make major concessions at this point."
