Why Is Islamic State Targeting Chinese Citizens In Afghanistan?

The bombing earlier this month on a Chinese hotel restaurant in Kabul, claimed by a regional affiliate of the Islamic State extremist group, has raised new questions about the its operations in Taliban-run Afghanistan and what analysts say is an emerging campaign targeting Chinese citizens.

The January 19 suicide attack on the Lanzhou Chinese Noodles restaurant in the heart of the Afghan capital killed at least seven people and wounded 13 others, including a Chinese citizen. The attack was quickly claimed by Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K), the regional affiliate of the extremist group, which said in a statement it "has placed Chinese nationals on its list of targets" due to Beijing's policies in Xinjiang, where at least 1 million Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other Muslim minorities have been put into mass detention camps.

"Extremist jihadists who believe China is an enemy of Muslims are still free and active under Taliban rule," Michael Semple, an Afghanistan expert and professor at Queen's University Belfast, told RFE/RL. "As a result, China will be forced to further strengthen security measures for its citizens."

Kabul Blast Targets Chinese Nationals; Islamic State Claims Responsibility

Chinese nationals have been targeted before in Afghanistan, including by IS-K, but the recent bombing comes amid a larger string of attacks against Chinese interests in neighboring Pakistan and Tajikistan that analysts say are also likely aimed at making China less willing to invest. Since the Taliban retook power in 2021, it has clashed with IS-K, viewing the extremist group's goals of establishing a regional caliphate as a threat to its own governance of Afghanistan.

"By creating fear, IS-K seeks to prevent Chinese companies from investing, doing business, and extracting natural resources in Afghanistan, thereby weakening the Taliban," Lucas Webber, a senior analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, a research group monitoring terrorist activity, told RFE/RL.

Chinese Citizens In The Cross Fire Of Taliban-IS Rivalry

Amid biting sanctions, China has become one of the Taliban's most important diplomatic and economic partners since the group returned to power, even without formally recognizing the government. That relationship has made Chinese citizens -- from engineers to restaurant owners -- visible symbols of Taliban legitimacy and attractive targets for IS-K militants seeking to expose cracks in the group's security claims.

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Semple says that in targeting Chinese nationals, IS-K may also be looking to send a message to the Taliban that it "still has the ability to successfully carry out attacks" despite ongoing efforts to push the extremist group out of Afghanistan and weaken it.

The recent attack also casts doubt on Taliban claims that Islamic State has no active presence in Afghanistan and has been eradicated.

In April 2024, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in an audio message broadcast by Taliban-controlled national radio and television that IS-K had been suppressed and no longer posed a threat in Afghanistan.

SEE ALSO: Who Killed The Chinese Workers? Questions Persist Weeks After Afghan-Tajik Border Attacks

Sami Yousafzai, a political analyst, says the Taliban's claims are only partly true, although IS-K currently lacks "bases inside Afghanistan, which limits its ability to carry out frequent attacks."

IS-K is also active in Pakistan and Tajikistan, where Chinese citizens have been targeted. Five Chinese workers were killed and five others wounded in two separate attacks in November in Tajikistan close to the Afghan border.

SEE ALSO: Pakistan Creates Special Security Unit To Protect Chinese Citizens Amid A Rise In Attacks

Tajik authorities said the attacks were carried out from Afghan territory, and Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi pledged to cooperate with Tajikistan in a joint investigation.

Following the attacks, a Taliban government official -- speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss ongoing investigations -- told Radio Azadi, RFE/RL's Afghan Service, that Taliban forces recently raided an IS-K hideout in northern Afghanistan near the Tajik border and that it is linked to the November attacks on Chinese workers.

An Ongoing Regional Campaign

IS-K emerged in 2015, largely formed by disgruntled Pakistani Taliban fighters led by Hafiz Saeed Khan, a former Pakistani Taliban commander, and later expanded operations into Afghanistan.

The group has also carried past attacks against Chinese nationals in Afghanistan -- including a 2022 bombing of a Chinese-owned hotel in Kabul -- and has stepped up its recruiting and propaganda efforts since the Taliban returned to power.

SEE ALSO: Labor Disputes, Security Fears Test China's Economic Projects In Tajikistan

"In the lead-up to the Taliban's return to power, various unofficial IS-K-linked media outlets released videos, pamphlets, and online posters criticizing and threatening China," said Webber, who is also a senior fellow at the Soufan Center. "These activities were largely tied to the Taliban's diplomatic relations with China."

He says IS-K is continuing with those efforts and is poised to keep targeting Chinese nationals as the group's rivalry with the Taliban deepens and its regional ambitions grow.

"[IS-K] has previously talked about bombings, and its propaganda branch has issued warnings in Uzbek about possible attacks on Chinese energy lines in Central Asia," said Webber. "Cross-border attacks are also possible, as insurgent and criminal groups have increasingly targeted Chinese nationals."