Iranian Filmmaker Jafar Panahi: Fall Of The Regime Is 'Inevitable'
Renowned Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi has said that after the bloody suppression of protests in Iran, the regime will no longer be able to control society.
In an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian on January 16, the director, whose work includes Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, Taxi, and The Circle, said:
"It is impossible for this government to sustain itself in this situation. They know it too. They know that it will be impossible to rule over people. Perhaps their only goal right now is to bring the country to the verge of complete collapse and try to destroy it."
According to Panahi, the fall of the Iranian regime is "inevitable," but its timing cannot be predicted.
“The regime will collapse, 100 percent. It is what has happened to dictatorship governments throughout history. When it will collapse, no one knows. We want it to be as soon as possible, in the next few minutes, but there are many factors that have to come together for it to happen."
The 65-year-old filmmaker warned Western governments about treating the clerical regime as rational actors. "Unfortunately in this system there is no rationality," the director said. "All they can think of is crackdown and how they can stay in power even just one more day. The last thing they’re thinking about is the people.”
Panahi, who has been promoting It Was Just an Accident abroad, has been persecuted by the Iranian regime for years due to his films dealing with issues of social injustice, gender oppression, and state repression. He has spent time in prison and has been prevented by the Iranian authorities from traveling abroad.
The filmmaker recognized that some people in Iran were supporting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah, saying:
"As Reza Pahlavi as said himself, after the transition there must be a referendum in Iran, and that is when people will decide what type of government they want and whom they want to rule over them. During this period of transition, we should all be united.”
Asked whether Pahlavi could be trusted to oversee a transition, Panahi said:
“Whether we agree with Pahlavi or not, we know that the overwhelming majority of the population of Iran want the current regime to go.”
The Internet In Iran Seems To Be Slowly Coming Back
Good morning from our teams in RFE/RL's Radio Farda and in the Central Newsroom. Starting the morning with the news that Iranians are slowly getting back online.
Internet monitoring data from NetBlocks shows that on the morning of January 17, after more than 200 hours of internet shutdown in Iran, the number of connected users has increased, albeit by a small amount.
According to NetBlocks, despite the slight uptick, nationwide internet connectivity in Iran remains at just 2 percent of normal levels, with no indication of a broad or sustained restoration.
Some experts say this limited improvement is due mainly to parts of government infrastructure and some specific networks getting back online -- with general access for ordinary users still incredibly limited.
Meanwhile, reports and user anecdotes indicate that some Iranian users are getting back on social networks but in a limited and scattered manner. A few unstable calls have been made through messenger apps, but widespread access is still not available to the public.
The internet shutdown in Iran, which began on the evening of January 8, is one of the longest nationwide internet shutdowns in the world, in terms of its duration and scale. It is thought that the only complete and nationwide internet shutdown in the world that lasted longer was related to the October 2021 coup in Sudan.
The Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, announced on January 14 that "it seems that the final decision on greater access to the internet will be made in the next week or two by the relevant institutions."
However, more pessimistic assessments suggest that the Iranian people may not have access to the global internet for months -- or even that the internet will be nationalized.
We are now closing the live blog for today. We'll be back again tomorrow morning to follow all the ongoing developments in Iran at 9:00 a.m. Central European time.
'Kidnapped From Hospitals': An Iranian Doctor Describes Brutal Crackdown
An Iranian ophthalmologist who spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda from Europe said hospitals are struggling to treat all the wounded as authorities try to crush anti-government protests.
Doctors have been overwhelmed by the number of eye injuries in particular, she said, adding that there have also been reports of security forces taking injured patients from hospitals and bodies from morgues.
Trump Thanks Iran For Canceling 'Over 800 Executions'
US President Donald Trump thanked the "Iranian leadership" for what he called the cancellation of "over 800 executions."
Trump posted on social media on January 16, writing: "I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!"
On January 15, a White House spokeswoman announced that Iran had halted the executions of 800 death sentences under pressure from Trump.
At the same time, White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt announced that all options remain open for dealing with Iran if repression and killings continue.
Pahlavi Confident Protests Will Succeed In Toppling Regime
On January 16, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, who was ousted from power in 1979, said he was still confident the Islamic republic and its regime will fall in the face of mass protests.
"The Islamic republic will fall -- not if, but when," he told a news conference in Washington. "I will return to Iran."
The former crown prince has emerged as a leading opposition figure during the current unrest, with the broader opposition as a whole fragmented and unorganized.
In recent weeks, Pahlavi has repeatedly called for intervention by US President Donald Trump. At the news conference, he once again appealed for greater international pressure to aid protesters and ratchet up pressure on Tehran.
"Iranian people are taking decisive actions on the ground. It is now time for the international community to join them fully," he said.
Witkoff: US Wants Diplomacy Over Military Action In Iran
US President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, says Washington would prefer a diplomatic solution to a military one in dealing with Iran and its multiple crises.
Speaking at the Israel-America Council in Florida on January 15, he said a potential diplomatic deal with the Islamic republic would cover four issues: uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, and Tehran's support for its proxies.
Citing Iran's dire economic situation, Witkoff said the Islamic republic could be willing to compromise on the issues.
“If they want to come back to the league of nations, we can solve those four problems diplomatically, then that would be a great resolution. The alternative is a bad one,” he said.
Witkoff also said, in response to a question about what message he had for Iranians who want the current regime to fall: "They're incredibly courageous people, and we stand with you."
US astronaut Jasmin Moghbeli, whose parents left Tehran in 1980 after the Islamic Revolution, has posted a message of support for protesters in Iran.
Putin Talks With Pezeshkian
Russian Vladimir Putin has been talking by phone with his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkian. The Kremlin said on January 16 that during the call the Iranian president briefed Putin on Tehran's "sustained efforts to normalize the situation" in Iran amid a violent and deadly state crackdown on widespread anti-government protests that has left thousands dead, according to human rights groups,
The Kremlin said the two leaders also "confirmed their mutual commitment to further strengthening the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran and implementing joint economic projects in various fields."
And on that point, here are a couple of recent articles on the impact recent events in Iran might have on Moscow's complicated relationship with Tehran:
A little bit of background and context now: RFE/RL's graphics department has produced an interactive timeline of anti-regime demonstrations in Iran since deadly student protests in 1999.