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Smoke rises from Dubai International Airport after a drone-related incident sparked a fire there early on March 16.
Smoke rises from Dubai International Airport after a drone-related incident sparked a fire there early on March 16.

live Trump Warns Of 'Very Bad' Future For NATO If Allies Fail To Help US In Strait

As the US-Israeli war with Iran continues to impact and shape the region, journalists from RFE/RL deliver ongoing updates and analysis.

Key Takeaways:

  • US President Donald Trump warned that NATO faces a "very bad" future if member states fail to help open the critical Strait of Hormuz.
  • Earlier, Trump said he is not ready to make a deal to end the war with Iran, despite what he claims are inquiries by Tehran for a settlement.
  • Israel’s military said it has begun “limited and targeted ground operations” in southern Lebanon, aimed at Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure near the border.
  • A UAE-loaded tanker sailing under the Pakistani flag crossed the Strait of Hormuz on March 16 with its tracking signal active, suggesting that some cargo ships may be receiving negotiated safe passage despite the recent shipping disruption.
  • EU foreign ministers will discuss extending the bloc’s Red Sea naval mission to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on March 16.
  • Oil-loading operations have again been ⁠suspended at ⁠the ‌United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah after a drone attack sparked a fire in a petroleum industrial zone
  • A drone-related incident also caused a fire near Dubai's international airport, the second-busiest airport in the world.
  • The Iranian women’s soccer captain, Zahra Ghanbari, has withdrawn her asylum request in Australia and will return to Iran, state media said, becoming the fifth member of the national team delegation to reverse a bid for sanctuary.
  • Iranian security officials say they have detained more than 500 people in connection with the war, including people who have provided photos and videos to outside news organizations.
02:27

Country-By-Country Casualty Tolls From Middle East War

The French AFP news agency has assembled casualty figures from around the Middle East since the United States and Israel launched its air strikes on Iran on February 28.

AFP said the figures are based on numbers released by governments, militaries, health authorities. and rescue organizations in the affected countries. It cautioned that it has not been able to independently verify all of the figures.

IRAN

The Health Ministry on March 8 said more than 1,200 people had been killed, including around 200 women and 200 children under the age of 12, with more than 10,000 civilians injured.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) on March 11 said at least 1,825 people had been killed, including 1,276 civilians -- among them at least 200 children -- as well as 197 military personnel and 352 people whose status had not been classified.

Due to reporting restrictions, AFP and other news agencies have not been able to access the sites of strikes or independently verify the tolls.

ISRAEL

Israeli authorities have reported 14 people killed.

First responders and local authorities say Iranian missile fire has killed 12 people inside the country, including four minors, since the start of the war, AFP reported based on their announcements.

Israel's military separately confirmed the deaths of two soldiers in combat in southern Lebanon.

LEBANON

The Health Ministry on March 14 said Israeli strikes have killed 850 people, including 66 women and 107 children, since the start of the war with Hezbollah, adding that 2,105 others were wounded.

The ministry said 31 paramedics were among the dead.

The aftermath of an Israeli strike on a building in central Beirut.
The aftermath of an Israeli strike on a building in central Beirut.

Lebanon's has said three of its soldiers have been killed.

Hezbollah has not revealed its losses.

THE GULF

Gulf state authorities and the US Central Command have reported 26 people killed -- 13 of them civilians. The rest of those killed were military or security personnel, including seven US service members.

Kuwait reported six deaths: two soldiers, two border guards and two civilians, one of them an 11-year-old girl.

The United Arab Emirates reported six deaths: four civilians and two military personnel who died as a result of a helicopter crash blamed on a technical malfunction.

Saudi Arabia said two civilians had died, as did Bahrain.

Oman reported the death of a mariner at sea and two other people in a drone attack on an industrial area.

Qatar reported 16 injuries and no fatalities.

IRAQ

Armed groups and officials have said at least 49 people have been killed in Iraq since the start of the conflict, according to an AFP tally based on their announcements.

France said an Iranian drone killed a French soldier in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.

The US military said a refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, killing all six crew members, in an incident not caused by hostile or friendly fire.

Pro-Iran armed factions and security sources say 35 Iran-backed fighters were killed in strikes they blame on the United States and Israel.

Kurdish rebel groups said at least five Iranian Kurdish militants were killed in strikes attributed to Iran on their positions in the north.

Kurdish security sources said one airport guard was killed in a drone attack on Erbil airport.

Officials said one civilian was killed by rocket shrapnel following a strike southeast of Baghdad.

JORDAN

Security officials said 28 people have been injured by falling debris from Iranian missiles and drones in various parts of the kingdom.

No deaths have been recorded so far.

With reporting by AFP
02:11

Drone Incident Ignites Fire At Massive Dubai Airport

A drone-related incident sparked a fire near Dubai's international airport, the second-busiest airport in the world prior to the outbreak of the Middle East war.

"Authorities are currently responding to a fire resulting from a drone-related incident in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport," the Dubai Media Office posted on X on March 16.

The Dubai airport, one of the busiest in the world before the Middle East war.
The Dubai airport, one of the busiest in the world before the Middle East war.

"Civil Defense teams continue their efforts to bring the fire under control. No injuries have been reported so far," it added

"All necessary measures are being taken to ensure everyone's safety," it said, adding that "the drone crash "resulted in damage to one of the fuel tanks."

Iran has fired some 1,800 missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates, more than any other country targeted by Tehran in retaliation for the US-Israeli air strikes that began on February 28.

The crisis has devastated the emirates' tourist industry and disrupted its crucial oil-sector operations.

Iran claimed that the recent US air strike on Kharg Island originated at an American base in the UAE, which denied the accusation.

01:32

Iran Women’s Soccer Captain Becomes Latest Player To Drop Asylum Bid In Australia, Say State Media

The Iranian women’s soccer captain, Zahra Ghanbari, has withdrawn her asylum request in Australia and will return to Iran, state media said, becoming the fifth member of the national team delegation to reverse a bid for sanctuary.

Seven players and staff initially sought refuge after being branded “traitors” at home for not singing the Islamic republic's national anthem before a game during the Women’s Asian Cup.

'Save Our Girls': Five Iranian Female Soccer Players Reportedly Seek Asylum In Australia
'Save Our Girls': Five Iranian Female Soccer Players Reportedly Seek Asylum In Australia
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Iranian authorities hailed Ghanbari’s decision, announced on March 15, as patriotic, but opposition media and others say players were pressured to change course through threats against their families.

Australian officials said the team members were given opportunities to pursue asylum but faced "incredibly difficult decisions."

With several already leaving for Malaysia en route to Iran, only two members of the delegation are now expected to remain in Australia.

With reporting by AFP
01:15

Interview: Iran's Use Of Chinese Doctrine And Tech Under The Spotlight

Eran Ortal
Eran Ortal

TEL AVIV -- The Iran war offers huge lessons for the effectiveness of Chinese military doctrine and hardware, both used by the Iranian military, according to Eran Ortal, a reserve Brigadier General in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Speaking to RFE/RL from a location near Tel Aviv late on March 14, Ortal said Iranian tactics around the Strait of Hormuz were very similar to those that China would be expected to employ in a future conflict around Taiwan.

The US and Chinese military would be “taking notes” as the current conflict played out, he added.

Ortal was previously commander of the IDF’s Dado center, a military studies unit at the General Staff. He is now head of the military program at the Begin-Sadat center (BESA) at Bar-Ilan University and a visiting scholar at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC).

RFE/RL: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Is there a military solution, and if so, what does it look like?

Eran Ortal: Well, that's the nature of asymmetric warfare. You can take out the Iranian fleet and the entire Iranian Navy, and the Fifth Fleet has done that. But the asymmetric capabilities, the speed boats, the unmanned boats, the mines and the coastal missiles will still be there. And this is a threat you cannot just totally remove. It's just like we have the anti-tank missile problem in Lebanon. You can take some of them out, you can have countermeasures, but they will always be able to snipe away.

You can protect the vessels going through the Hormuz Straits and you can win the war. That's basically the tactic and the strategy to maneuver around this problem. And I guess this is the American strategy.

Read more here.

01:12

Trump Warns Of 'Very Bad' Future For NATO If Allies Fail To Help US In Strait

US President Donald Trump warned that NATO faces a "very bad" future if member states fail to help open the critical Strait of Hormuz, the oil transport lane that has been effectively closed by Iran amid the war with the United States and Israel.

In an interview published on March 16 by The Financial Times, Trump said that just like the United States has helped Ukraine in the war with Russia, he expects Europe to help on the strait.

The disruptions to shipping in the strait has sent oil prices soaring around the world, raising the cost of living for hundreds of millions of people.

"If there's no response or if it's a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO," Trump said in the brief interview.

Asked what specific help he was seeking, Trump told the FT he sought minesweepers as well as "people who are going to knock out some bad actors that are along the shore [of Iran]."

"I think China should help too because China gets 90 percent of its oil from ⁠the Straits," Trump told the newspaper.

Trump said he has spoken to seven countries about securing shipping in the strait, without identifying them. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US administration is close to announcing the coalition, although when it would begin escorting traffic is still to be determined.

The US president said that Israel is working with Washington on means to protect shipping in the strait.

23:53 15.3.2026

Macron Tells Pezeshkian To Cease Attacks On Regional Countries

French President Emmanuel Macron told his Iranian counterpart to put an immediate end to "unacceptable" attacks against countries in the region, including Iraq, where a French soldier was killed last week in a drone strike.

Macron wrote on X on March 15 that he "recently" spoke with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian and "asked him to immediately put an end to the unacceptable attacks that Iran is carrying out, whether directly or through proxy groups, including in Lebanon and Iraq, against countries in the region."

France's President Emmanuel Macron.
France's President Emmanuel Macron.

"I reminded him that France intervenes within a strictly defensive framework to protect its interests, its regional partners, and freedom of navigation, and that targeting our country is unacceptable," Macron added.

He said the "unchecked tensions" are "driving the entire region toward chaos."

Tehran has launched missiles and drones toward US Arab allies and Israel in retaliation for a massive US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began on February 28.

On March 12, a French officer was killed and at least five soldiers were wounded in a drone attack in the Makhmour area of Iraq. It was not clear if the drones were launched by Iran or its proxy groups in Iraq.

22:59 15.3.2026

German Foreign Minister Makes Clear: Berlin Will Not Participate In Escort Duty

Amid talk of a possible coalition of nations to protect shipping in the all-important Strait of Hormuz, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on March 15 said his country does not plan to take part in such an international military operation. "Will we soon become an active part of this conflict? No," Wadephul told German media. Wadephul said Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius have made Berlin's position clear. "We will not participate in this conflict," Wadephul said. US President Donald Trump had sought military assistance from other concerned nations to secure shipping through the strait, a vital for global oil transport. Shipping there has virtually ceased since the start of the US-Israeli air strikes on Iran beginning February, driving up oil prices.

22:31 15.3.2026

Iran Says More Than 500 People Detained In Connection With War

Iranian security officials say they have detained more than 500 people in connection with the war, including people who have provided photos and videos to outside news organizations.

Ahmad-Reza Radan, commander of the Iranian security forces, said about one-half of those detained were "significant cases," the state-run Fars news agency reported on March 15.

Iran has detained hundreds of people since the start of the war on February 28, many for passing photos of damages to outside sources.
Iran has detained hundreds of people since the start of the war on February 28, many for passing photos of damages to outside sources.

Radan said the detained include individuals who passed information to broadcaster Iran International -- which is run by Iranian exiles based outside the country -- and people who took photographs of locations hit during US-Israeli air strikes since February 28.

The Iranian judiciary has declared that photographs of sensitive facilities and damages may constitute a breach of security and that severe penalties may be imposed.

There is no way to confirm the number of those detained, whether they are still being held, or the condition of those taken into custody.

During mass antigovernment protests earlier this year, tens of thousands of people were arrested and thousands were killed a brutal crackdown.

US President Donald Trump warned the government not to kill or execute protesters prior to the February 28 US and Israeli air strikes on Iran and rights groups assailed the regime in Tehran for the brutality.

21:53 15.3.2026

Kyiv Vows To Continue Attacking Russian Energy Infrastructure Amid Rising Oil Prices Impacted By Iran War

Ukraine would continue attacking Russian energy infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, days after the United States moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil to stabilize global markets amid its military campaign against Iran.

Zelenskyy told CNN in an interview published on March 15 that the Russians "certainly have no intention of stopping the war," as he reiterated Kyiv's stance on sanctions against Russia.

"I believe that lifting sanctions on Russia will not help the world; it will only help Russia," Zelenskyy said. "In just these 14–15 days, they earned roughly $10 billion," he added.

Zelenskyy also said he spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron and others "about halting and confiscating Russian oil."

The interview was released a day after Ukrainian military hit the Afipsky oil refinery and the Kavkaz port in Russia's southern Krasnodar region in response to deadly strikes that killed six people across Ukraine.

With reporting by CNN.
21:14 15.3.2026

Starmer Discusses Strait Of Hormuz With Trump, Carney

A file photo shows British Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving an update on situation in the Middle East.
A file photo shows British Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving an update on situation in the Middle East.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with US President Donald Trump about the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in order to stop disruptions to global shipping, a Downing Street spokesperson said on March 15.

Starmer also held a conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, during which they discussed how the ongoing closure of the strait is affecting international shipping. Leaders agreed to continue their discussions on the Middle East conflict during a meeting scheduled for tomorrow.

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