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China In Eurasia

Chinese President Xi Jinping tours a competition venue for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing on January 4.
Chinese President Xi Jinping tours a competition venue for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing on January 4.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China’s resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I’m RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here’s what I’m following right now.

Against the backdrop of diplomatic boycotts, the prospect of war in Ukraine, and strict COVID protocols, the Beijing Olympics are set to kick off on February 4 and present an opportunity for world leaders in attendance to get some rare face time with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Finding Perspective: The last time Xi left China was January 2020, on a visit to Myanmar only days before he ordered the lockdown of Wuhan, the city where COVID-19 emerged, and his last known meeting with a foreign official took place in Beijing in March 2020, with Pakistani President Arif Alvi.

While Xi and Chinese officials have been active, holding virtual summits and multiple phone meetings, it’s not a substitute for face-to-face diplomacy, especially when it comes to an authoritarian and increasingly personalistic regime like China’s.

According to a provisional list put forward by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, world leaders from 32 countries will be attending the Olympics.

While many Western nations aren’t sending dignitaries as part of a diplomatic boycott against China over its human rights record, the list of attendees is mostly composed of China’s neighbors and political partners.

Perhaps the most notable guest will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was the first to confirm his attendance, and comes to Beijing with tensions high over Ukraine, along whose border Moscow has massed more than 100,000 troops.

Beyond Putin, Xi will also notably have time to meet with leaders from Pakistan, all five Central Asian countries, Poland, and Serbia.

Why It Matters: In the COVID-19 era, China has isolated itself with a zero-tolerance policy and hosts the Olympics now as a more powerful, more authoritarian, and more contentious country on the international stage compared to when it last hosted the games in 2008.

Beijing will be keen to show that its diplomatic bonds are still strong and to counter the image that China has turned inward, with its officials preoccupied with protecting Xi’s health and the country’s internal political machinations, including a Communist Party congress later this year where Xi is expected to claim another five years as the country’s leader.

Expect many photo ops with Xi and statements of support for China, as well as using the games as an opportunity to announce long-planned initiatives with friendly countries that have been delayed due to the pandemic.

Read More

● A recent report from the Foreign Correspondents Club of China said that media freedom in China is declining at “breakneck speed.”

● In his first one-on-one interview since assuming his post in July, Qin Gang, China's ambassador to the United States, warned to NPR that the United States could face “military conflict” with China over the future status of Taiwan.

● China is changing, but what is the correct way to describe its system? Is it authoritarian, totalitarian, or something else? Melissa Chan explores this question for The Washington Post.

Expert Corner: The Message Behind the 2022 Olympics

Readers asked: “When Beijing hosted the Olympics in 2008, it was a coming out party for China as a global power. What do these Olympics represent for China?”

To find out more, I asked Isaac Stone Fish, author of the forthcoming book America Second: How America's Elites Are Making China Stronger and a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council:

“This Olympics symbolizes Beijing’s retreat from the world and despite it being used as a justification, COVID is not the main reason for this retreat. Beijing has been doing so much over the last two years in terms of controlling its citizens at home and also removing them from the international space with travel bans and restrictions on movement, which is symbolized by how closed off these Olympics will be.

“This isn’t permanent, but it’s hard to know where things will stand in a few years. Making sure that there are minimal distractions ahead of the Communist Party congress this year and a view within the leadership that the United States wants to destabilize and overthrow the Party are all factors contributing to Beijing closing itself off and adopting a greater bunker mentality.”

Do you have a question about China’s growing footprint in Eurasia? Send it to me at StandishR@rferl.org or reply directly to this e-mail and I’ll get it answered by leading experts and policymakers.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Why China Is Watching Ukraine

Beijing is closely following Russia’s military buildup along the Ukrainian border, viewing it as a litmus test for political unity in the West and using the mounting tensions as an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Moscow, I reported here.

What It Means: Beijing was relatively mute amid the buildup of Russian troops, but China has begun to offer more explicit support.

The German Marshall Fund’s Alliance For Securing Democracy has been monitoring both Chinese state media and officials’ comments around Russia and another potential invasion of Ukraine and found some interesting results that they shared with me for this newsletter.

Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine's border was one of the most discussed topics by Chinese state media, their analysis shows, but received far less attention from Chinese officials in statements and social media posts.

Beijing has also recently struck a balance by shying from comments specifically on Ukraine but backing Russia’s calls for security guarantees from NATO and attacking the United States as an aggressor in the tensions.

“Diplomats’ overt attacks on NATO and the United States, loud commitments to the relationship with Russia, and Chinese state media’s more overt embrace of Russian talking points about Ukrainian aggression suggest that China would side with Moscow should things escalate further,” Etienne Soula, an analyst at German Marshall Fund who compiled the data, told me.

For China, tensions over Ukraine have many layers. It’s an opportunity to chide the United States and boost its relationship with Moscow, but Beijing also sees it as a crucial test for American resolve and the strength of transatlantic ties as it digs into its own rivalry with the West.

2. Gathering Central Asia

Xi held a virtual summit with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan on January 25, pledging aid and vaccines and promising to bolster the region’s economies and security, my colleagues in RFE/RL’s Central Newsroom reported.

What You Need To Know: The virtual meeting was officially held to celebrate 30 years of diplomatic relations between Beijing and the region after it became independent following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

But China used the meeting to continue to deepen its relations with Central Asia, offering $500 million in aid over the next three years and Xi vowing to open China’s domestic market to more Central Asian goods, which have been cut off amid pandemic border controls. (You can read Xi’s full comments here).

The gathering should also be seen as a precursor to all five Central Asian leaders heading to Beijing to attend the Olympics’ opening ceremony and getting some face time with Xi and other high-ranking Chinese decision-makers.

One leader to watch will be Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, who has been trying to get the long-delayed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway up and running and will head to Beijing with new contracts and a financing plan, my colleagues at RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported.

3. India Has Entered The Chat

Two days after Xi hosted China’s virtual summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted his own with the region’s leaders, RFE/RL reported.

The Takeaway: The meeting was largely symbolic, with fewer actionables than the Chinese summit, but the outreach comes as Central Asian countries are eager to diversify their partnerships with the region increasingly cornered by China and Russia.

New Delhi, which has increasingly tense relations with Beijing, has long been trying to build up its ties with Central Asia and has done so with uneven results so far.

Perhaps the most noteworthy thing to come from the Indian meeting is that Modi and the five leaders decided to set up a joint working group on Afghanistan to focus on aid and the issue of international recognition of the Taliban.

For a deeper dive on India’s relationship with Central Asia, my colleagues Bruce Pannier and Muhammad Tahir, who run RFE/RL’s Majlis Podcast, had a recent episode unpacking the summit. You can listen to it here.

Across The Supercontinent

Watching Pristina: Surveillance cameras from Chinese companies Dahua and HikVision, which are blacklisted by the United States, have been installed on government buildings in Kosovo, RFE/RL’s Balkan Service reported.

Sending Signals: In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Gabit Koishibayev, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to China, praised his country’s ties with Beijing and said that Kazakhstan supports China’s anti-terrorism efforts, although he refrained from mentioning Xinjiang specifically.

On The Border: Beijing has announced its roster for its 25-member men's ice hockey team and it is mostly composed of foreign-born players. Of the 15 foreign-born players on China's roster, 11 were born in Canada, three in the United States, and one in Russia.

Year Of The Tiger: 2022 is the Year Of The Tiger in the Chinese zodiac and the endangered animal is making some modest gains in northeast China.

According to the latest monitoring data in 2021 released by Chinese officials, there are 10 newborn Siberian tiger cubs, and the big cats' population has reached more than 50.

One Thing To Watch

As attention shifts to the Olympic Games this week, more and more athletes are testing positive as they arrive in China.

A total of 200 positive tests for COVID-19 have now been recorded at the Olympics since January 23. Of those 200, 67 were athletes and officials.

The Chinese government is pursuing a zero-tolerance public health strategy. While it appears to be holding up in the early days, athletes and team officials are testing positive for COVID-19 at much higher rates than other people arriving for the Beijing Olympics and the strict rules could lead to several athletes missing out on their events.

That’s all from me for now. I’ll be off in two weeks time, so you won’t hear from me again until the beginning of March.

Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox on Wednesdays twice a month.

A giant screen broadcasts news footage of a virtual meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a shopping mall in Beijing in December.
A giant screen broadcasts news footage of a virtual meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a shopping mall in Beijing in December.

Beijing is closely following Russia’s military buildup along its border with Ukraine, viewing it as a litmus test for political unity in the West and using the mounting tensions as an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Moscow, analysts say.

In a call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the United States and its allies not to “hype up the crisis” around Ukraine and called for a peaceful resolution to the escalating crisis, saying Russia’s “reasonable security concerns should be taken seriously.”

“Regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs,” Wang said, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, in reference to demands issued by the Kremlin that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO.

Beijing was relatively mute amid the buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops, but Wang’s remarks, which echoed messaging from Russian President Vladimir Putin, were China’s most explicit so far in support of the Kremlin, reflecting a growing bond between the two countries’ governments and a shared opposition towards the United States.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov greet each other on the sidelines of a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Dushanbe in September.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov greet each other on the sidelines of a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Dushanbe in September.

While not part of a formal alliance together, Beijing and Moscow have nurtured diplomatic and defensive ties into a strong partnership that looks set to deepen as Putin heads to China to hold a summit with Xi and attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics on February 4.

Beyond watching the situation in Ukraine for opportunities to chide the United States and boost relations with Moscow, analysts say China also sees it as a crucial test for American resolve and the strength of transatlantic ties, which could have long-term consequences for how Beijing approaches its own geopolitical flash point in Taiwan.

“China is always watching and seeing how Western alliances like NATO are holding up under pressure,” Theresa Fallon, the director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies in Brussels, told RFE/RL. “That makes this crisis about much more than just Ukraine. It’s also a broader stress test for the West from Beijing’s point of view.”

Litmus Test?

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the area that separates the island from mainland China, have grown in recent years, with Beijing routinely sending jets to buzz Taiwanese airspace and holding military exercises close to the island.

Beijing considers Taiwan to be a province of China and “reuniting” with the island has become a legacy issue for Xi. While the Chinese leader repeatedly talks of an eventual peaceful unification with Taiwan, he has said that Beijing would retake it by force if necessary.

With China’s territorial ambitions in mind, the Western response to Moscow’s security demands on NATO and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are being watched closely by Beijing.

“Ukraine is a place where Russia and China’s interests are converging,” Jessica Brandt, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told RFE/RL. “They have very different long-term objectives, but in the near term they are united in denting the power of the United States and European cohesion.”

The United States has been vocal in its opposition to Russia’s military movements near the Ukrainian border and Blinken told RFE/RL during a January 27 interview that Russia would face “massive consequences” if it chooses “the path of aggression” with Ukraine.

RFE/RL Interview: Blinken Warns Russia Not To Choose 'Path Of Aggression'
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But Kremlin demands for a moratorium on NATO expansion and a pullback of the alliance's troops and weaponry away from Russia have also exposed gaps in the Western response.

The United States and its allies have reportedly assembled a punishing set of financial, technological, and military sanctions against Russia that would go into effect shortly after a renewed invasion of Ukraine. But divisions over how to enforce such measures, especially in Germany and France, could lessen their impact.

The lack of cohesion on how best to go about deterring Russia or what measures to take in the event of an attack on Ukraine was also on display following Germany’s refusal to grant reexport licenses to Estonia to send German-made artillery to Ukraine.

“Both China and Russia can press and grow those fissures that already exist in the transatlantic alliance,” Brandt said. “It's a ripe opportunity for them to pursue these goals.”

But while analysts say the tensions in Ukraine are an important test that China is monitoring and that Western disunity could embolden Beijing in the future, the Kremlin's designs on Ukraine are unlikely to shift China’s calculus about using force against Taiwan.

A Taiwanese flag is carried by a Chinook helicopter during a rehearsal for the Island’s National Day celebration in Taipei on October 7.
A Taiwanese flag is carried by a Chinook helicopter during a rehearsal for the Island’s National Day celebration in Taipei on October 7.

Unlike Ukraine, the United States is committed by law to protect Taiwan, with the Taiwan Relations Act requiring Washington to ensure the island can defend itself and to treat all threats toward it as matters of “grave concern.” Moreover, many experts believe Beijing prefers to use economic and political tools, rather than military ones, to influence Taipei and allow China to take control of the island.

“There are certainly implications from Russia invading Ukraine that affect China’s calculation in its own context for Taiwan, but that’s just one element among many,” Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a fellow at National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan and a former adviser to the European Parliament, told RFE/RL. “Ultimately, what China does in Taiwan won’t be decided by what Moscow does in Ukraine.”

A New Kind Of Partnership

Amid Russia’s renewed push against Ukraine, Russian-Chinese bonds appear to be growing to levels that seemed unlikely even a decade ago.

Andrei Denisov, Russia’s ambassador to China, said Moscow regularly updates Beijing on progress in its security talks with the United States, and Chinese state media personalities and diplomats have begun echoing Russia’s talking points over tensions with Ukraine and NATO that portray the alliance as an aggressor and Washington as using the situation for political gain.

Chinese goodwill toward Russia was also on display on December 15, when Xi and Putin talked up their partnership in the face of growing confrontations with the United States and a shared hostility toward the West.

The call highlighted the ways in which Russia and China are drawing on each other for mutual support, with Putin criticizing the AUKUS (Australia, the United States, and Britain) partnership in the Pacific and Xi supporting Moscow’s demands for security guarantees to limit the West’s influence across the former Soviet Union.

Putin meets with Xi via video link from his residence outside Moscow on December 15.
Putin meets with Xi via video link from his residence outside Moscow on December 15.

The Kremlin said security in Europe is also set to be on the agenda as Putin heads to China. The summit marks the Chinese leader’s first face-to-face meeting with a head of state in nearly two years and the pair will look to cement their partnership amid the rivalry with Washington.

But while the Russian and Chinese leaders will continue to show “a united front” and although Beijing favors the pressure that Moscow has mounted against the West, Ferenczy says it is unknown if China would be fully supportive of another Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“A Russian invasion would have wider implications for other parts of the world,” she said. “For China, it’s a question about whether that’s good for their interests or if it’s better that Russia holds back.”

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About The Newsletter

In recent years, it has become impossible to tell the biggest stories shaping Eurasia without considering China’s resurgent influence in local business, politics, security, and culture.

Subscribe to this weekly dispatch in which correspondent Reid Standish builds on the local reporting from RFE/RL’s journalists across Eurasia to give you unique insights into Beijing’s ambitions and challenges.

To subscribe, click here.

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