Middle East
- By Mike Eckel and
- Riin Aljas
The Horrors Of Syria's 'Human Slaughterhouse' Spill Into Public View
Some shuffled out of the Syrian prison’s gray concrete corridors like zombies rising from a graveyard. Some sobbed as they reunited with long-unseen relatives. Some exulted, crying at newfound freedom from an institution whose brutality earned it the moniker “the human slaughterhouse.”
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad opened a Pandora’s Box of revelations about the cruelty of the country’s hated internal security services. Exhibit A is the Saydnaya prison, the military-run complex north of Damascus where tens of thousands of prisoners have been held, tortured, and executed over many years.
Between 2011 and 2018, more 30,000 detainees were executed or died of starvation, medical neglect, or from torture, according to estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based war monitor.
Saydnaya – whose name is sometimes spelled as Sednaya -- was decidedly a Syrian creation, said Philip Luther, head of research for Amnesty International, to jail and punish alleged Islamic extremists initially, and later, political prisoners or anyone perceived to be a threat to the regime.
Since Assad’s flight over the weekend, activists have flocked to the facility throwing its doors open, releasing people, some of whom reportedly have been held for decades, hammering down walls, and unearthing the horrifying details of the facility’s operations.
“In short, I’m not aware that the design or operation of Saydnaya prison was guided or inspired by outside entities such as Iran or Russia,” Luther told RFE/RL. “The operation of the prison seems to have responded to the particular security objectives of the Syrian authorities.”
In the hours after the prison’s gates were breached, thousands of people flocked to the facility, many looking for news of relatives.
Other videos verified by RFE/RL showed people, some appearing to be rebels or insurgents, scouring through paper administrative files, while scores of men thronged corridors of the complex celebrating their release.
Other men appeared confused and befuddled inside the complex's first floor, apparently not understanding they had been freed.
"Don't be scared! The regime has fallen! Don't be scared! You are free!" says the narrator of another video verified by RFE/RL. "Leave, old man! Thank God you are safe! You are free!"
"I haven't had a biscuit in 9 years," another man said joyfully, as he also fed another inmate.
Rumors that the complex contained vast, subterranean cell blocks drew people with engineering and demolition equipment, to sledgehammer concrete walls. The White Helmets, a well-known humanitarian organization, brought in jackhammers to drill into floors.
The group issued a statement on December 9 saying that it had not discovered any “unopened or hidden areas in the facility.”
In 2017, the U.S. State Department publicly accused the Syrian government of building a crematorium at Saydnaya, and prison officials killing as many as 50 people day, mainly by hanging, the bodies being dumped in a mass grave. U.S. officials accused Syria of apparently conducting the killings with “unconditional support of Russia and Iran", though officials later qualified that there was no evidence that Russia or Iran were involved with the crematorium.
"This is from Saydnaya prison. This is the food that they're serving. "Those are the cells," one man narrates in another unverified video as he films the interior of the prison. "They feed them cabbage."
Prisoner survivors, relatives, and activists have reported that some inmates had been held in Saydnaya for years -- if not decades. One video that circulated widely but RFE/RL could not independently verify purported to show one man who was incapable of speaking and who had been held in the facility for 13 years.
The jubilation at Saydnaya was echoed elsewhere around Damascus and other cities, in scenes of other prisoners being released and exulting at their freedom.
“Ten years in prison! Ten years!” one newly freed prisoner yelled on December 8, as a crowd of men ran past the Ministry of Energy in Damascus.”
In one video that circulated widely on social media, an unnamed woman who purportedly spent years in various Syrian prisons is shown sobbing as she is reunited with her two young children.
Riyad Avlar, who spent 12 years inside the prison and is now the co-founder of the Turkey-based Association of Detainees and The Missing in Sednaya Prison, likened the facility to what he’s read about North Korea prisons.
“What people should understand is the Assad regime was like Hitler, like the Nazis. Absolutely as bad,” Avlar told RFE/RL.
More News
- By Frud Bezhan
With Top Brass Dead, Iran Deploys Decentralized 'Mosaic' Strategy To Boost Defenses
Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has decentralized its command-and-control structure, handing junior ranks more power to respond to the massive US-Israeli aerial bombardment of the Islamic republic.
The joint air campaign that began on February 28 has killed numerous senior military and political leaders, including IRGC chief Mohammad Pakpour and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had the final say on all matters of the state.
With its leadership decimated, Iran has activated a so-called mosaic defensive strategy, which is designed to empower local IRGC commanders during wartime. While boosting the resilience of Iran's armed forces, the strategy also raises the risks of miscalculation, experts say.
"It is designed to help the local provincial IRGC and their accompanying Basij elements to defend against an outside invading force," said Farzin Nadimi, a defense specialist at the Washington Institute.
The IRGC, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces and the backbone of the country's theocracy, is believed to have around 150,000 troops, with army, navy, and air units. It also commands the volunteer Basij paramilitary force, which is estimated to have around 1 million members.
Decentralization has been a key part of the IRGC's doctrine since around 2009, when the force was reorganized. Each of Iran's 31 provinces has its own IRGC headquarters, command-and-control structure, and chain of command.
"Every province is a mosaic, and the commanders have the ability and power to make decisions," said Nadimi. "So, when they are cut off from their command in Tehran, they can still be able to function as a cohesive military force."
Speaking to Al Jazeera TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 1 that "our military units are now independent and somehow isolated, and they are acting based on instructions -- general instructions -- given to them in advance."
Doctrine Holding For Now
The approach appears to be working for now. Iran has responded to heavy US and Israeli bombardment by firing unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones at Israel, US military and diplomatic facilities across the Middle East, and critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
"That implies the command-and-control system is still functioning, at least for now," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there."
But it is unclear if the IRGC can maintain cohesion as the United States and Israel strike the country's military infrastructure, including its stockpiles of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, and target mid-ranking provincial commanders.
If the IRGC runs out of missiles or if most of its facilities are damaged or destroyed, the force has "few capabilities beyond their strategic deterrents," said Bruchmann.
Iranian forces rely heavily on missiles and drones, and "with their production facilities above ground hit, the capacity to replenish stocks is at least in doubt," he added.
'Double-Edged Sword'
Iran's mosaic strategy is designed to make the IRGC more resilient. But the decentralized command-and-control structure could also fuel chaos, experts say.
"Decentralized military units will be more difficult to find and finish off" for the United States and Israel, said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank. "But they will also be less impactful because they won't achieve critical mass."
"Some of the more disciplined and elite units will be able to stay in the fight, while other, less experienced units will fall victim to confusion and disorder," added Clarke. "I would also suspect that the US and Israel are waging a psychological operations campaign that will exacerbate this issue for the IRGC."
US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and called on the country's armed forces to lay down their weapons or face "certain death." He said those who surrendered would be granted immunity.
Experts warn that the decentralized wartime conditions increases the risk of uncoordinated drone and missile strikes and navigation errors that could trigger unintended escalation.
That could help explain Iranian missiles and drones hitting civilian areas like hotels and shopping malls in the Persian Gulf, analysts said.
NATO-member Turkey said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile in its border region on March 4. Another of Iran's neighbors, Azerbaijan, accused Tehran of firing drones at an airport in its Nakhchivan region on March 5. In both cases, the head of Iran's armed forces issued unusually direct denials.
- By RFE/RL
Iran War Ripples Across Middle East, Caucasus With New Attacks
The war in Iran is widening across the Middle East and beyond, with incidents stretching from the Persian Gulf to the South Caucasus and raising fears the conflict could escalate into a broader regional confrontation.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward a base housing US forces on March 7, while Azerbaijan accused Iran-linked operatives of plotting sabotage targeting a major oil pipeline and Jewish sites.
Heavy air strikes were reported in Iran overnight and early on March 7, with Tehran's Mehrabad Airport and the nearby town of Ekbatan both being hit, among other targets.
At the same time, cross-border strikes between Israel and Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon continued and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had attacked a Maltese-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz using an "explosive drone" as Tehran looks to broaden its response to the US-Israeli military campaign.
The string of developments underscores how a war that began with coordinated US-Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28 is rippling across neighboring regions, threatening energy infrastructure and raising the possibility of new fronts as the war enters its second week.
Analysts say Tehran's strategy appears aimed at raising the cost of the conflict for Washington.
"The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there," Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told RFE/RL.
But Iran also appears to be moving to quell any regional backlash. In a rare apology on March 7, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said in a video message that he would like to "personally apologize to neighboring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions" as he urged them not to join the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
He said Iran's temporary leadership council had agreed to suspend attacks on nearby states unless strikes on Iran originated from their territory, but hours later the IRGC Navy launched a drone attack on the US al-Dhafra airbase in the UAE, according to the Tasnim news agency, a semiofficial news agency associated with the IRGC.
The report claims that a US satellite communications center and early-warning and fire-control radars were hit, but RFE/RL was unable to independently verify the attack. The UAE's Defense Ministry said it responded to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran but has not confirmed the attack on the US airbase.
Pezeshkian also rejected US President Donald Trump's demand for "unconditional surrender," saying that "the Americans can take their demand of a surrender of the Iranian people to their graves."
Shortly afterward, Trump announced in a message on his social media that the US military is considering expanding the range of targets inside Iran, including areas and individuals, or "complete destruction and death."
Alleged Iranian Plot To Target Oil Pipeline
Azerbaijan said it had thwarted a plot linked to the IRGC to attack several targets inside the country.
According to a statement from Azerbaijan’s State Security Service released late on March 6, the alleged plan included attacks on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Israeli Embassy in Baku, an Ashkenazi synagogue, and a prominent member of Azerbaijan's Mountain Jewish community.
Authorities said two Iranian citizens and one Azerbaijani national were involved in smuggling more than 7 kilograms of C-4 explosives into the country under instructions from the IRGC. Investigators said international arrest warrants had been issued for four suspects.
Iran hasn't publicly responded to the accusations but said earlier this week, after a drone incident, that it isn't seeking to target Azerbaijan.
Any disruption to the pipeline could tighten global energy supplies already rattled by the expanding war.
Tehran has threatened to "set ablaze" any Western tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides a vital trade route for about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. At least nine vessels have been attacked since US-Israeli strikes began, according to Lloyd’s List, a maritime intelligence firm.
The BTC pipeline runs through Georgia and Turkey and transports Caspian crude to Mediterranean export terminals, supplying European markets. The route also accounts for roughly a third of Israel's oil imports.
The plot follows another incident earlier this week that heightened tensions between Baku and Tehran. Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones struck infrastructure in the country’s Nakhchivan exclave on March 5, injuring civilians and damaging an airport.
As Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, the United States condemned it, describing the strikes as a "needless escalation" of aggression.
Attacks Ripple Across The Middle East
Saudi Arabia said on March 7 that it had intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh, which hosts US military personnel. The Saudi Defense Ministry said the missile was destroyed before reaching its target.
In a separate attack, Saudi air defenses shot down six drones targeting the Shaybah oil field near the border with the United Arab Emirates, according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency. Officials said the drones were intercepted over the Empty Quarter desert in the south of the country.
The attacks follow several earlier drone strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure this week, including attempted attacks on the Ras Tanura refinery on the kingdom’s eastern coast.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman warned Iran against further “miscalculations,” saying such actions threatened regional security and stability.
The rising attacks have rattled global energy markets. Brent crude prices surged more than 8 percent in a single day this week and have climbed nearly 30 percent since the conflict intensified.
Elsewhere, Israel has continued to exchange fire with Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon as Tehran's network of regional allies -- often referred to as the "axis of resistance" -- weighs how far to escalate the confrontation.
Iran itself has responded to the US-Israeli strikes by launching waves of drones and missiles at Israeli targets and striking US military facilities across the region, including in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all reported drone and missile attacks over the past week.
- By Ray Furlong
After A Week Of War, Israel Sees Progress But Long Road Ahead
TEL AVIV -- Hidden away on a small street in a central district of town, the ruins of war come as something of a surprise. On nearby streets, hipsters fill outdoor cafes, Lime scooters clutter the sidewalks, and children play in parks. But turn a corner and you'll see blackened walls, smashed windows, and rubble-strewn cars.
This is almost the only site in Tel Aviv that bears the scars of war, following an Iranian strike on the first night of the conflict. As such, it bears witness to the destructive power of Tehran's ballistic missiles. But the lack of other such sites underlines Israel's ability to shoot them down.
It's an aspect of the war so far that is having a profound impact on how Israel approaches what comes next.
"The Israeli point of view is that, well, things are going back to normal here, more or less. We just have a few sirens a day. I mean, we are used to it. We can tolerate it," former lawmaker Ksenia Svetlova told RFE/RL.
The implication? For Israel, the long game is an easy choice.
"The Iranians right now are running low on ballistic missiles and specifically on launchers, but they still have drones. The drones cannot hurt Israel much. We know how to intercept them," said Svetlova, now executive director of an NGO called ROPES -- the Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security.
There is indeed an air of routine rather than alarm as people here make their way down to underground shelters whenever alerts sound on their phone apps.
Israel's capacity to intercept incoming drones and missiles is measurable by the civilian casualty toll, with 12 fatalities after a week of conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli and US forces have decapitated the Iranian leadership and appear to have massively downgraded Tehran's military capabilities.
"We are striking the enemy, its leadership, its oppressive regime, and different targets," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6, while visiting Beersheba, where some 20 people were injured in an Iranian strike earlier in the week.
The bullish tone in his remarks on the progress of the war matched the iconography of resolve that lines the streets here: Israeli and US flags can be seen everywhere, as can billboards depicting a Roaring Lion -- this country's military codename for the operation called Epic Fury by Washington.
Netanyahu has long called for regime change in Iran, as well as the destruction of its nuclear and missile programs. He has said the aim of this operation is "to crush the regime of terror completely."
Opinion polls show Israelis overwhelmingly support the war. Longstanding Netanyahu critics do, too.
Veteran opposition politician Avigdor Liberman told RFE/RL the war was going "very well" but that the "final result" was the key issue. This, he said, had to be "to topple this regime."
Liberman, who has served as ministers of defense, foreign affairs, and finance in various governments over the years, said he was confident this could be achieved but did not explain how.
The "worst case" would be Iran descending into "chaos" he said.
"It's really a huge question because what we saw in Libya, Iraq, Syria, it's real turmoil. But from all alternatives...the worst alternative is if [the clerical authorities] will continue to rule Iran," he said.
But reserve Major General Yaakov Amidror, a former national-security adviser for Netanyahu who clashed with him over policy on the West Bank, suggested the talk of regime change may not be serious.
"The goal of the war is a very strong agreement" between Israel and the United States, he told an event held by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JSIS) this week.
"First, to eliminate totally any ability which is connected either to the missiles or to the nuclear project. Any guy who was there, any building which was connected, any place which was connected, any capability which is needed, everything should be totally destroyed…. I think that both sides understand regime change is something that cannot be guaranteed," he said.
Given this, he added, the main aim was simply to cause as much damage as possible.
"What should be ensured by the operation, by the war, is that any regime, this one or another one, will be very, very weak," Amidror said.
The Israeli government has also not explained in detail how regime change could be achieved. There has been speculation in recent days about Iraqi Kurdish militias crossing the border and sparking an uprising.
Svetlova, who as a Knesset legislator was closely engaged in relations with Kurdish groups, said they would be "skeptical" of the idea, at least in the short term.
Which brings us back to the long game. On March 6, US President Donald Trump gave a timeframe of four to six weeks to achieve Iran's "unconditional surrender."
The Israeli government hopes "that the war will, first of all, last long enough" to sufficiently degrade Iran's defense and security capabilities, Svetlova said.
"In the end of the day, there will be maybe a beginning of civil war in Iran, between the various minority militias, the Basij [militia] forces, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)of course, the Iranian protests will resume, and then the regime will have to fight on many fronts rather than just one.... I think that's the hope."
- By Ray Furlong
Israeli NGO Head Ksenia Svetlova: Iran Still 'Firing Like Crazy'
TEL AVIV -- Israel has made an impressive start to military operations against Iran but may be not much closer to its goals than a week ago, former Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova told RFE/RL in an interview at her home in Tel Aviv on March 6.
Svetlova, who is now executive director of an NGO called ROPES (Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security), said there were few examples of "regimes that fall just as a result of air strikes" and was skeptical of the idea that Iraqi Kurdish militias would want to get involved in the fight.
RFE/RL: We are almost a week into the conflict. From an Israeli perspective, where are we? How do things stand after a week?
Ksenia Svetlova: In a military sense, the IDF [Israeli Defense Force] briefs us regularly that there are fantastic achievements and that there is less [Iranian] rocket potential, that a lot of the launching stations were destroyed. And, actually, we do see less fire, less volume of fire here in Israel.
I am absolutely sure they are achieving the goals that they put ahead of them, in the military sense. Whether that will bring us to the ultimate goal [as far as] Israel is concerned, the ultimate goal is the downfall of the regime. There is nothing else there. No agreement will be good enough. No alternative Iranian regime will be good enough within the frame of the Islamic republic.
Are we closer now to this goal than the week before? I'm not sure of that at all.
RFE/RL: What gives you pause then? What makes you hesitant about that?
Svetlova: I know a little bit about the history of trying to collapse regimes. There is some confusion here about the nature of the Iranian regime. I'm not sure if this confusion derives from the lack of expertise currently in the American administration or some other reason, or perhaps some hubris that, with this amazing armada and this firepower, what else can happen?
They are [bound] to fall. But the Iranian regime, from what we know -- and again, I'm not an Iran expert, but it's a multilayered, very well-structured revolutionary regime that prepared for this moment for 47 years. And we have very [few] examples of regimes that fell as a result of just air strikes. And even a ground invasion doesn't always promise this kind of outcome.
That's why we hear from the White House right now mixed signals about the possibility of some ground operation there, because they understand that they cannot achieve this very specific goal of collapsing the regime as we speak.
For now, the Iranian regime [is] probably weakened by the strikes, but they're firing like crazy, involving more and more states every single day. They are still controlling the streets, from the little, scarce information that we get from Iran. Here, from Israel, looking at Iran, I do not see yet any signs of collapse of the regime.
RFE/RL: The Israeli government launched these air strikes. Those air strikes were the first thing we heard about this war. Does the Israeli government have a strategy to bring down the regime beyond air strikes?
Svetlova: This is a combination of Israeli prowess and expertise and firepower and American might. It's not an Israeli operation per se.
While the Israelis definitely know how to do the first strike and to overwhelm completely the systems there and to assassinate who was assassinated there -- this is of course a great achievement. But rather than that, I think that the war is being planned in the Pentagon, not in Israel. Whether Israel has its own plans for collapsing the regime, that I don't know.
RFE/RL: What's the hope, then, in Netanyahu's government that the Pentagon's planning to do?
Svetlova: I think they hope the war will first of all last long enough, that it will not end in five days or in six days, because it will definitely take much more if you want to completely destroy physically the basis of the regime. You cannot destroy the institutions per se, but you can destroy the Basij bases and the police stations and all of that. So they're doing it right now, every single day.
Then there will be, maybe, the beginning of a civil war in Iran, between the various minority militias and Basij forces, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps). Of course, the Iranian protests will resume, and then the regime will have to fight on many fronts rather than just on the military front. Eventually it will be so weak that it will just collapse with perhaps some push from some security agencies here and there.
That's the hope, realistically. Whether it's achievable or not [is] yet to be seen. But at least for now, if somebody thought -- and this is perhaps a bit of a bold comparison, to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's hope to take over Kyiv in three days, which didn't happen, obviously, and he's there for four years.
If anybody thought that just as a result of air strikes, and I think that in Israel at the level of the public, there was this kind of hope -- well, they are hitting them so hard, how could they not collapse? And also Trump…was astonished, like, wow, they're not raising the white flag…. Well, I think that anybody who deals with the Middle East understands exactly why it's not happening.
RFE/RL: What, then, are the implications of all this for the broader region, the Persian Gulf in particular?
Svetlova: Specifically for the Arab countries, it's the loss of security. They bill themselves as this safe hub, a wonder, a miracle in the desert. They've practically positioned themselves as not so much a part of the Middle East: We are something else, we are something different. And yet the Middle East came to them, to their doorstep.
If it continues, the implications will be very broad for energy markets, of course, but also for the positioning of these countries as safe hubs. They attracted so much human capital and also financial capital, under the promise that…they will be safe.
They are not safe anymore. And if the Iranian regime survives -- and there are significant chances that they will survive -- they will continue to terrorize these states, not only through drone attacks and so on, but also physical terror.
We heard yesterday that the Saudi officials are cutting their interviews and public appearances and so on for fear being targeted. This is something they did not experience for a long, long time. It's like going back to the '80s, beginning of the '90s in this sense.
Israel is much more prepared for that, but the broader Middle East is not. Europe is not prepared for that at all, for the halt of supplies of gas, LNG in Qatar and so on. The Middle East cannot tolerate this international crisis. It's not a Middle Eastern crisis.
RFE/RL: Can't tolerate it -- but can't do anything about it.
Svetlova: I don't know what they can do. I'm looking at the Gulf states, with all the brand-new weapons they acquired from the US and Europe and other countries. They don't much have an army, a real army. So they can join or not join Donald Trump. It will be perhaps significant symbolically, but not in any other sense.
What can they do? Can the US right now be pushed through the UN Security Council? No, the answer is no. So then, what can anybody do about that? When Donald Trump will feel that he [has realized] some of these goals, then it will stop, but not before that.
RFE/RL: One of the things that's being discussed quite a lot over the last couple of days is the idea of Kurdish militias from Iraq being the ground forces, effectively. When you were a member of parliament, you were involved in outreach, in contact with Kurdish organizations and Kurdish communities, including in Iraq. How do you rate the likelihood of such a scenario?
Svetlova: We have to differentiate between the two things. You can support Kurdish independence, the right to self-determination. I support the Palestinian right to self-determination. I also support the Kurdish right to self-determination, just like I support for my own people, the Jewish people, the right for self-determination.
How can it be achieved? For now, Kurds were disappointed time and again, cooperating with the United States.
Many Kurds will be hesitant about engaging in something like this, which might be extremely risky, given the regime is not collapsing yet. It's a very different thing, arming and participating in the armed struggle when you have the first signs that the regime is almost done -- you need a little push, but then it will be gone. This is not the case with the Iranian regime yet. This is first.
Second, I don't think that only by arming the ethnic minorities…the West will be able to have an advantage significantly in overwhelming the Iranian regime. I think it will actually give the Iranians more pretense to use this rally around the flag thing. And given the rising nationalism among the Iranians who are Persians, it can actually distract them from struggling with this regime because they will say, well, these are not our goals.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
'A Dangerous Situation': Azerbaijan Fears Becoming Embroiled In Widening Iran War
Fears are growing in Azerbaijan, Iran's northwestern neighbor, that the South Caucasus country could become embroiled in the US-Israeli war on Tehran that is widening in scope.
Baku accused Iran of firing drones that struck an airport and school in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region on March 5, calling it an "act of terror" and vowing to respond. Tehran denied it fired the drones that injured two people.
The incident has heightened concerns in Azerbaijan -- which has close military, economic, and energy ties to Israel, Tehran's archenemy -- that it could become a target of the Islamic republic's expanding response to the massive US-Israeli air campaign launched on February 28.
Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Tehran's aim, experts say, is to expand the war and increase the cost of the conflict for Washington and its allies.
"This is a dangerous situation," said Jasur Mammadov, a Germany-based Azerbaijani military analyst. "Azerbaijan has a long border with Iran," and if Turkey, Baku's closest ally, is not involved, "it would be very difficult to defend the country," he added.
Much of the concern in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country of around 10 million people, is centered around fears that Iran could target its energy infrastructure, including pipelines and production facilities.
"Iran has developed drone technology capable of flying as far as 1,000 kilometers," said Mammadov, referring to a long-range version of the Shahed drone that can travel around 1,500 kilometers. "That means it could easily reach Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, as well as any city."
Experts say Baku's close ties with Israel make it a potential Iranian target. Azerbaijan, which shares an around 700-kilomter border with Iran, is a major supplier of oil to Israel. Israel, in turn, is a seller of arms and drones to Baku.
"If Iranian energy infrastructure is struck [by Israel], Tehran could look at Azerbaijan's energy facilities as potential targets, given that the Israelis get so much of their energy from Azerbaijan," US-based Iran analyst Alex Vatanka said before the war began.
Despite its growing ties with Israel ties, Baku has repeatedly said it will not allow its territory or airspace to be used by any country to launch military operations against Iran.
Iran has long been critical of Israel's presence in Azerbaijan. Tehran has accused Baku of cooperating with Israeli intelligence -- allegations Azerbaijan denies.
A day before the drone attack in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region, President Ilham Aliyev made a rare visit to the Iranian Embassy in Baku to offer his condolences on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in Tehran on February 28.
But on March 5, Aliyev's sentiment shifted.
"Iranian officials must provide an explanation to the Azerbaijani side, an apology must be offered, and those who committed this terrorist act must be held criminally liable," Aliyev said during a meeting of his security council.
Tehran denied it launched a drone attack on Azerbaijan. "The Islamic republic of Iran... denies its armed forces launched a drone toward the Republic of Azerbaijan," the general staff of the armed forces said in a statement, according to state TV, which blamed Israel.
Farhad Mammadov, an analyst close to the Azerbaijani government, said the drone attack will force Baku to take measures for its defense and begin consultations with Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Turkey share deep historical and cultural ties. In 2021, the sides expanded their "one nation, two states" partnership, under which both sides pledged to help the other if attacked.
During Azerbaijan's wars with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Turkey supplied weapons to Baku, including advanced drones. Yerevan accused Turkey of direct involvement in the conflict, which Ankara and Baku denied.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry on March 5 condemned the drone attacks on Azerbaijan, calling for such attacks to end "immediately."
A day earlier, Turkey said a NATO defense system intercepted a ballistic missile in its border region. Iran rejected accusations that it launched a ballistic missile toward NATO-member Turkey.
"Turkey itself could feel threatened and may align closely with Azerbaijan," said Ata Mohammad Tabrizi, an Iranian analyst based in Turkey.
RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service contributed to this report.
Waiting Out The War: Stories Of Kyrgyz Citizens In Tehran
For Mamatmusa Ukubaev, the first explosions on February 28 were unnervingly close.
"There are military bases and facilities 1 or 2 kilometers away from us. They are being hit, too. The buildings usually have at least two floors for parking. They can be used as bomb shelters, and the authorities have made them open to the public," Ukubaev said, describing life in Tehran after the US–Israeli strikes began.
He noticed a strange mix of fear and curiosity among residents.
"People in Iran live on the streets. If bombs fall, they go up to the roof and watch. You don't see people running to shelters. I didn't leave the house for the first two days. But we ordered food from restaurants. There are fewer couriers, fewer taxi drivers, but they are still working."
Despite the danger, Ukubaev and his family have decided to stay, for now. He knows that if the situation worsens, there is a plan in place.
"The embassy weighed three or four options: Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia. They decided the most convenient was via Baku. That's our plan. If it becomes serious, we need to drive to the border. They tell us which crossings are open. From there, we go to Baku and then fly to Kyrgyzstan."
While Ukubaev waits, another Kyrgyz citizen has already been evacuated.
Elmira Nurgaziyeva, who has lived in Iran for several years and works for an international organization, described her journey out of the country.
"Early yesterday, we left Tehran by buses. There were about 100 Russian citizens; I was the only Kyrgyz. The rest were from Russia and Belarus," she said. "The Russians escorted us to the Azerbaijani border town of Astara."
"I had official permission from Kyrgyzstan's embassy in Baku. I was allowed to cross the Azerbaijani border, so I had no problems. The Azerbaijani government transported us from Astara to Baku for free. I arrived in Baku on March 3," she said, reflecting on the long overland evacuation that brought her to safety.
According to Kyrgyz Ambassador Akylbek Kylichev, there are currently about 100 Kyrgyz citizens in Iran.
"Most of them are our women who married Iranian citizens many years ago. They now have families here and are settled. Some of them left after last year's war [in June 2025]. When the situation became dangerous, the embassy contacted all registered citizens and urged them to leave if possible. In the past few days, two citizens reached out to us. We evacuated them to Azerbaijan [on March 4]," the ambassador told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service.
As the conflict has escalated, Central Asian governments have been urging their citizens to leave Iran. Between February 28 and March 5, a total of 1,317 people from 45 countries were evacuated through the Azerbaijani border. Among them were 109 citizens of Tajikistan, three Uzbeks, three Kazakhs, and two Kyrgyz.
The Tajik ambassador to Iran, Nizamuddin Zohidi, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Turkmenistan had opened the Sarakhs crossing to help foreign citizens, including Tajiks, leave Iran. He added that embassy staff were working around the clock, with a hotline for citizens, and that Iranian authorities were assisting by transporting evacuees toward the border.
According to officials, the embassies of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have been coordinating evacuations, with diplomats stationed at key border crossings in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to assist their citizens. These routes are essential because air travel has been completely halted.
Michael Knights: Gulf Region On The Precipice Of Fundamental Change
With the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran now into its sixth day, both sides continue to launch attacks amid fears the war could spill over into a broader regional conflict.
Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York–based strategic advisory firm and an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute, spoke with RFE/RL's Vazha Taberidze about the likely objectives in the conflict for both sides and what may happen if those aren't achieved.
RFE/RL: What's at stake in this confrontation? What are the strategic objectives of each side?
Michael Knights: The minimal US-Israeli objectives are that Iran's offensive military capability to affect environments outside of Iran has to be reduced to an absolutely maximal extent.
That means that the missile program is crippled for the long term. There's no aircraft available, as few helicopters as possible, no navy, no major long-range rocket systems, [and] ground force capabilities are greatly degraded. That's the minimum.
The bonus would be if the regime begins to crumble and there is ideally an inside-out change of government, meaning a change of government starting in Tehran, not a change of government starting in the provinces. This is why the president of the United States has been essentially begging Iranians to take over institutions and rise up within the cities.
But what we're starting to see is the other alternative happening, which is the crumbling of the regime from the outside, from Iranian Kurdistan, from the edges. That's not as attractive an outcome for anybody because it can start to break the country up and result in significant civil war-type conditions.
I don't think the Trump administration is going to back off without achieving its minimum objectives, which is an unprecedented destruction of the Iranian regime's military war machine and repressive institutions.
RFE/RL: Does the United States have a Plan B if the chosen strategy to achieve those objectives doesn't yield the desired results?
Knights: I think Plan B is to do the destruction and then to stop the operation and to leave the Israelis to continually go back and mow the grass as if Iran is a new Lebanon.
If you look at the Israelis after they defeated Hezbollah, they go back whenever they want and they prevent reconstitution. At this point, that would be a feasible option for the Israelis.
So one end point here is that the US only achieves its minimum objectives of taking down Iranian military capabilities. And from that point onward the Israelis just conduct an endless campaign between the wars over Iran, entering whenever they want, destroying any target that they detect. They do a sort of death of a thousand cuts against the regime over a longer period of time, and they foment uprisings at the edges of the Iranian state.
That objective doesn't sound so attractive to the US and to the Gulf states. So they're wondering: Is it just worth carrying on right now and pushing all the way through to the end and seeing if we can get a change of government right now? And it's done and dusted within weeks instead of months or years.
In Venezuela, it was very rapid. We had the Delcy government stepping up after Maduro stepped down, and they demonstrated subservience to the US. The US is recognizing that this option doesn't seem to be available in Iran. And as a result, if you can't overthrow this government, you are stuck with this situation for the long term.
RFE/RL: How big are the advantages that the US and Israel possess?
Knights: In conventional military terms, Iran is a house with no roof right now. The Israelis and the US will have full freedom of movement for the foreseeable future, maybe forever at this point.
Once it's at this point, the Israelis will never stop going back on a monthly basis until that regime is gone. It is bigger than Lebanon, but it's also very important to the Israelis. And they now have the capability to keep intervening for the foreseeable future.
What's at stake here is really the whole future of the region. We're at a dividing line right now where the post-1979 experience of the region can be fundamentally changed. And President Trump, you can tell he's obsessed with the idea that Iran can become a friend. I think the Trump people see Iran as a tragic waste of an amazing market and an amazing potential partner. So they want it over because they think that there's a lot to do there potentially.
RFE/RL: If Iran, maybe at a modest rate, is still able to continue firing, and if it adds even more drones to the mix, it could turn into a longer-term regional war. What would be the implications of that?
Knights: It's a scenario, for sure. At this point, what seems to be happening to try and head off that scenario is two things: The Gulf states themselves, instead of being noncombatants, which is what they're aiming to be, are coming to combatant status, and they themselves are now starting to police further out the counter-drone line.
What they're also likely to do is bring US manned aircraft forward from Jordan. That will provide a much thicker defense screen, particularly against drones over the Gulf itself. So there are things we haven't done yet which can still be used.
At the moment the Gulf states are using their most expensive assets to shoot down Iranian missiles. But there are a lot cheaper assets we haven't utilized yet because the Gulf states chose to tell us: No, go base over Jordan and Israel and Cyprus. Don't be in the Gulf littoral itself. Please don't bring your combat aircraft forward. So we might all see a change in that regard.
But let's just assume the worst-case scenario and that doesn't happen. The Iranians have deeper magazines than us. They manage to keep shooting, which is quite possible. The Huthis certainly did.
A couple of things then. One is that it's going to get very expensive to use Hormuz. It already is. The US is going to have to commit to something like the reflagging system from the Iran-Iraq War era and ensuring individual cargoes. So it's going to get expensive. Trump is not going to like that.
And the Gulf states are not going to like ongoing strikes that last for weeks instead of days. So it's fair to say that we're in a race right now.
RFE/RL: Finally, what's at stake for Russia and China?
Knights: Easy: same as with Venezuela. The problem with Russia and China's great power competition is they don't have power-projection capabilities. As a result, when something is happening far away, like Venezuela, or even as far away as Iran, they simply have no hard-power capability to affect the result. There's still a US hard power advantage at a continental range that the Russians and the Chinese don't have. Their soft power is extraordinary. But in this case it doesn't help a partner.
And everyone can see that Assad in Syria went down despite Russian support. Iran went down despite Russian and Chinese support. Venezuela, Maduro went down, as well. That's the reality.
Trump Says US To Play Role In Choosing Iran's Next Leader As Conflict Widens
President Donald Trump said Washington will help choose the next leader of Iran as US and Israeli forces continued air strikes amid growing concerns of a broader conflict after drones launched from Iran struck Azerbaijan and Israel pushed into southern Lebanon.
With the United States and Israel currently engaged in a sixth day of war against Iran, the number of countries in the region to suffer Tehran's retaliatory strikes, which have targeted both military and civilian infrastructure, grew again on March 5.
Trump, speaking to Reuters in a phone interview, said he wants to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader, while ruling out Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - a hardliner who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father.
"We want to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future," he was quoted by the agency as saying.
"We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again...Somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country."
The supreme leader was killed last weekend in air strikes as US and Israeli military operations pummeled the country.
Since then, a steady barrage of strikes have decimated Iran's military, communications infrastructure, and other key facilities across the country.
Iran has retaliated with attacks on US military bases across the Middle East, dragging Arab Gulf states -- and others such as Turkey and Azerbaijan -- onto the frontlines of a war they have long tried to avoid.
Iran's neighbor Azerbaijan, which has longstanding ties with Israel, reported attacks launched from Iranian territory on March 5.
Two people were injured after drones have struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region, with one damaging the region's airport and a second landing near a school, according to Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry.
President Ilham Aliyev said that "Iran committed an act of terror against the territory of Azerbaijan, against the state of Azerbaijan" with the attack, while the Foreign Ministry said Baku "reserves the right to respond."
Later in the day, Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that the country had targeted Azerbaijan.
Millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran. Azerbaijan is also one of the main oil suppliers to Israel, while Israel has been a key defense partner for Baku for years.
Many in Azerbaijan see Israel's military supplies as critical during country's campaign to regain control of the Karabakh region from Armenia.
A day earlier, a ballistic missile launched from Iran was heading toward Turkish airspace and was intercepted by NATO air defense systems, according to Turkish officials.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte condemned Iran but said the incident does not provide immediate reason to trigger the alliance's mutual defense clause, Article 5.
"The most important thing is that our adversaries have seen yesterday that NATO is so strong and so vigilant, and even more vigilant, if possible, since Saturday," Rutte said on March 5, referring to when the US-Israeli strikes began on February 28.
Earlier, a State Department spokesman said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss recent developments and had pledged "full support" for the NATO ally.
Ukraine To Provide Expertise Against Iran's Drones
As air travel disruptions continued across the Middle East with Iran firing missiles and drones against Israel and other regional countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his offers to provide support in countering Tehran's Shahed drones were accepted.
"We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against Shaheds in the Middle East region," Zelenskyy said on his social media on March 5.
Tehran has long been an ally of Russia, supplying it with military equipment and technology and fueling Moscow's war effort against Ukraine. Zelenskyy said earlier that Russia's military had used at least 57,000 Shahed drones in attacks on his country, including against its civilian and energy infrastructure.
Now, the Ukrainian president said Kyiv will help its partners with expertise: "I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security."
Ukraine, which has just entered the fifth year of repelling Russia's full-scale invasion, has been suggesting to share its experience in defending against Iranian-made drones since the first Iranian attacks across the Gulf.
Asked on the matter, US President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized some of the European leaders for failing to provide enough support for US military actions said he'll take "any assistance from any country."
Trump: US Holds 'Strong Position'
Trump on March 4 vowed that there would be no let up with the joint air campaign that has killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other security, military, and political leaders.
He added that Tehran's arsenal of ballistic missiles was being "wiped out rapidly."
Trump has said he ordered the attack on Iran to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon but has also said he wanted Tehran to cease its ballistic missile program and to end violence against anti-government protesters, thousands of whom were killed in a brutal crackdown in recent weeks.
Seeking to counter concerns of American '"boots on the ground" in the war, the White House on March 4 said deployment of US ground troops in Iran is "not part of the plan for this operation at this time."
Instead, Trump backed the Kurds in launching their own offensive, saying he thinks it’s "wonderful that they want to do that." Asked by Reuters if the United States would offer air cover for such an operation, Trump refused to answer.
Earlier in the week, sources told Axios that the president spoke with Kurdish leaders, who sought consultation on whether and how to attack Tehran's security forces.
Netanyahu Claims 'Historic Gains'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the two allies had made "historic gains" in their war against Iran, which is in its sixth day.
"Israel and the United States have together made historic gains to protect our citizens and the civilized world," government spokeswoman Shosh Bedrosian said in a video message.
As Bedrosian also claimed the attack on Iran was necessary as Tehran was rebuilding its nuclear weapons program in "new underground bunkers" and that there were signs it planned "to attack Israel and US forces in the region," without providing details.
Separately, Israel stepped up its attacks on strongholds of Iran-allied Hezbollah forces in Lebanon after the group launched missiles into northern Israel. According to Israeli military, Tel Aviv's goal was to create "a buffer...between our residents and any threat,"
French President Emmanuel Macron on March 4 said he urged Netanyahu to refrain from launching a ground offensive in Lebanon.
"I reiterated the necessity for Hezbollah to immediately cease its attacks on Israel and beyond. This escalatory strategy is a grave mistake that puts the entire region at risk," Macron wrote on X.
"I also called on the Israeli Prime Minister to preserve the integrity of Lebanese territory and to refrain from launching a ground offensive. It is crucial for the parties to return to the ceasefire agreement," Macron added.
Reports indicate that Israeli ground forces have already crossed the border into Lebanon, although details remain unclear.
On March 5, Israeli military warned residents in Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate immediately. "Save your lives and evacuate your residences immediately," Israel's military forces spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, RFE/RL correspondent Alex Raufoglu in Washington
- By RFE/RL,
- Ray Furlong and
- Current Time
Israeli Purim Celebrations Defy Iranian Missiles
Israelis were celebrating Purim with singing, dancing, and costume parties on March 4. When the festivities in Jerusalem were interrupted by an air-raid alert, people headed for the shelters and kept partying there -- determined to maintain normal life amid war.
- By Ray Furlong
In Bunkers And On Streets, Israelis Celebrate Purim Amid Repeated Missile Strikes
JERUSALEM -- Crowds of civilians in costumes were literally dancing in the streets as they marked the Purim holiday here when air-raid sirens rang out. Immediately, people streamed toward the shelters -- some clutching babies, others drinks.
On this occasion, the shelter was a nearby underground parking lot where revelers continued the party, spinning around with arms linked and singing vigorously. One man was attached to an inflatable horse. A child was dressed as a chick, a parent as a penguin.
It was a jarring moment where a high-spirited party collided with war.
"It's definitely scary but I think that we know we're going to be OK. It's happened before," said Rebecca, a 20-something American woman with a 1-year-old child in her arms who moved to Israel three years ago.
"This is part of living in Israel. You know, you got to just take the punches," she told RFE/RL.
Her husband, Daniel, said the incoming Iranian ballistic missile attack was "symbolic" given that Purim marks a failed attempt to wipe out Jews during the Persian Empire.
"We have rockets raining down on us. It's very comforting to know that God is on our side and that history repeats itself, and we're going to be redeemed again," he said.
Israel marked day five of its conflict with Iran with intermittent alarms but no reported injuries or fatalities. During an earlier attack, sheltering in a different bunker, low thuds and booms were heard as air defense intercepted missiles.
On each occasion, it was not long before people's phones buzzed with all-clear messages on their warning apps. The party in the parking lot simply moved back upstairs and into the late afternoon sunshine.
Within minutes, the streets were again filled with hooting car horns and inebriated cries of greeting. There was a heady mix of alcohol, adrenaline, relief, and defiance.
"The war is a little bit crazy. With the war and everything, we're just trying to celebrate and we're being bombed -- we've got to run into the shelters every couple of minutes," Jerusalem resident Shimon Barenen told RFE/RL.
"We're just trying to keep up the spirit," he added.
Later, at a roadside Lebanese restaurant on the road toward Tel Aviv, there was a more sober mood as around 20 people crammed into a tiny bunker. A woman cried softly, her husband cradling her in his arms. A family of American tourists worried how they would get out of Israel and home to California. Again, there was the thud of missiles being intercepted overhead.
The mood only lightened when an Indian TV journalist backed into the room, speaking excitedly into a phone on a selfie stick, drawing groans and laughs in equal measure.
On this occasion, the remains of the Iranian missile were nearby. Emergency services fought their way past early evening traffic heading to and from Purim celebrations, with police officers frantically gesturing to drivers to clear a path. A roadblock to stop people driving in the direction of the crash site snarled the traffic further.
Once again, this incident passed off without any injuries or deaths. Israel's air defense are largely holding firm so far against missiles from Iran and rockets and drones fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
Israel's wars with its regional neighbors have usually been characterized by asymmetrical levels of casualties, offensive capacity, and air defenses -- in Israel's favor.
This time is no exception. As of March 4, the country had suffered 12 civilian fatalities, mostly in a single strike at Beit Shemesh that was a direct hit on a housing block.
The HRANA human rights group, which monitors events in Iran, says that more than 1,000 Iranian civilians have been killed in the Israeli and US air campaign that began on February 28.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 4 that US and Israeli air forces had now achieved close to "uncontested" control of Iranian air space.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said any new leader appointed in Iran to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader after his death in an air strike on February 28, the first day of the campaign, "would be an unequivocal target for elimination."
The military balance is clearly in favor of Israel and the United States. Yet Iran retains, for now, the ability to hit back.
As night fell on March 4, there were yet more sirens. Israelis have lived through this for years, especially during the war in Gaza with Hamas -- also regarded by the United States and Israel as a terrorist group.
But, said a 37-year-old engineer who gave her name only as Anna, "we are not used to it." Anna told RFE/RL she doesn't have a shelter in her building, so she comes to a building across the street to seek safety.
When it was Hamas attacking, she said, she stopped bothering. But Iran, she said, is a much greater threat. "It's really scary."
US Confirms Sinking Iranian Ship, Says Tehran Firing Fewer Missiles
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed a US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka as military officials said Iran is firing fewer missiles at targets around the Gulf region due to its decimated capabilities to wage war.
Speaking at a briefing on March 4, Hegseth called the attack -- which left at least 87 seamen dead with dozens of others injured or missing -- "quiet death." Sri Lankan authorities said 32 Iranian sailors were rescued.
"An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo," Hegseth said.
Hegseth said the United States has the resources to continue the campaign, which started on February 28 in tandem with strikes by Israel, indefinitely if needed, saying Washington would take "all the time we need" to secure victory.
In response, Iran has launched missile and drone barrages at states around the Persian Gulf that have fanned fears the war could spread throughout the region.
Highlighting those fears, a ballistic missile launched from Iran headed toward Turkish airspace before being intercepted by NATO air defense systems.
The military alliance, to which Turkey is a member, condemned the incident, saying it "stands firmly with all Allies."
At the same briefing as Hegseth, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran was launching some 86 percent fewer ballistic missiles than it did on February 28, the first day of the conflict. Drone launches were down almost as much, he added.
"We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense," Caine said.
Hegseth echoed those comments, adding that coalition forces expect to gain complete control of Iranian airspace within about a week, which would allow expanded bombing operations across the country.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign.
She told RFE/RL in an interview in Warsaw on March 4 that "Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them."
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives," Kallas said.
Kallas Says Iranian Capacity To Target Gulf States 'Unsustainable'
WARSAW -- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign launched against it over the weekend.
"We have to understand that the Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them," she told RFE/RL in an interview conducted in Warsaw on March 4.
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives."
Expanding on the answer about Tehran's allies, the former Estonian prime minister was quick to point out that Russia, which has long been seen as a key ally of Tehran, hasn't rushed to aid the Islamic regime.
"What we have to see is that when Iran is fighting, they are fighting alone with their proxies. Russia is not supporting them," Kallas added.
US President Donald Trump said on March 3 that Iran "is going to be in for a lot of hurt" in the coming days, adding that "the big-scale hitting goes now."
Operation Epic Fury, as the mission is called by US military officials, represents the largest US buildup in the Middle East in a generation with over 50,000 US troops and 200 fighter aircraft. According to the US military, 17 Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed and nearly 2,000 targets across Iran hit in the last four days alone.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has estimated that nearly 1,100 Iranian civilians, including 181 children, have been killed in the air strikes.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at US military bases and key commercial sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar -- all American allies -- since the conflict broke out.
The European Union, meanwhile, has struggled to keep a unified position on the war. The E3 -- France, Germany, and the United Kingdom -- have indicated they might assist the United States militarily if necessary, while Spain has questioned the legality of the strikes on Iran.
When asked about what outcome the EU sees after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the air strikes, the EU top diplomat was cautiously optimistic that things eventually could improve for the country.
"Now the question is, of course, what comes next? Is it possible that there's going to be a democratic Iran? I mean, not necessarily immediately, but still there's opportunities for the people if the repressive regime is weakened," she said.
With the EU's foreign ministers set for an online meeting with their counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council on March 5, Brussels is likely to have to grapple with more immediate challenges to the bloc such as already soaring energy prices and potential waves of refugees.
"There are threats to disruption of supply chains and trade routes, there are also risks for migration pressure that is coming toward us because people will want to flee war. These are all the risks that we have to really take into account," Kallas said.
- By Frud Bezhan
A New Front In Iran War? US Considers Arming Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, in a move that could open a new front in the war on Iran and risks igniting a civil war in the Middle East country.
Several Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years. Some have demanded autonomy within Iran while others are fighting for secession from the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdish groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in the western part of the country comes as the United States and Israel wage a massive aerial bombardment of Iran.
The US aim, experts say, would be to stretch Tehran's military resources, weaken the state's grip on power, and foment an uprising inside Iran, a multiethnic country of some 90 million people.
Iran's clerical rulers, despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military leaders, have not capitulated or fragmented and maintain control of the country since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28.
"The main goal is to make sure the Islamic republic starts losing control of some areas of the country," said Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel.
"The assessment may be that by doing so, other minorities as well as the broader opposition may be inspired. Some elements within the regime who may be tempted to defect or flee may also see this as a sign that they should do so now, before the situation spins fully out of control."
Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran's population and primarily live in the country's west along the border with Iraq. Iran has long been accused of suppressing and discriminating against the country's ethnic minorities, including Kurds.
Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said possible ground incursions by Iranian Kurdish groups into western Iran could stretch Tehran's military resources.
"If the Kurdish factions were to stage a concerted series of attacks, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] would have to seek reinforcements," said Bruchmann, referring to the elite branch of Iran's armed forces.
"However, that would weaken their posture in core cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, or Karaj. It would thus create a dilemma for the regime where to send sparse reinforcements in times when coordination is also more difficult. It is this dilemma and thinning out of forces that is the operational goal."
The risks of the United States possibly arming Iranian opposition Kurds groups are considerable, experts say.
"Washington could trigger a civil war and the fragmentation of the country, which could have lasting consequences," said Horowitz.
Many of these groups were previously armed but have since laid down their weapons.
"If they engage in a long-term war against Iran, and the US support disappears, this will prove very dangerous for them," said Horowitz.
The United States recently cut support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that was a key US partner for years in the war against the Islamic State extremist group.
Longstanding Disputes
In anticipation of a US attack on Iran, five Iranian opposition Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan announced a new political coalition last month aimed at overthrowing the Islamic republic and ultimately achieving Kurdish autonomy.
The new coalition includes the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat), and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan. The coalition does not include several Kurdish political heavyweights such as the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan.
Iran has sporadically conducted military strikes against the exiled Kurdish groups, which Tehran has designated as terrorist organizations and accused them of serving American and Israeli interests. Those attacks could intensify if the United States arms the groups.
On March 4, Iran launched rocket attacks at a camp near the border operated by the PAK, the group said, adding that one person was killed and three wounded. A day earlier, drone strikes struck a base run by the PDKI in northern Iraq.
Experts say it is unclear if the various Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq can settle their deep differences and have the willingness and ability to fight against the Islamic republic.
"There are longstanding disputes, and they need to prove solidarity on the field," said Bruchmann. "It is less about the potential impact of some better or more weapons from the US, but rather the will to fight the Iranian regime decisively and coordinate military attacks among them that will decide whether the Kurds will add a ground element to the US-Israeli air campaign."
- By Frud Bezhan
Iran War Descends Into Regional Conflict With Global Spillovers
In just a few days, the United States and Israel's massive bombardment of Iran has sprawled into a regional war that has dragged in key America allies in the Middle East and sent global energy prices soaring.
Iran has responded to the joint US and Israeli campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, by unleashing unprecedented barrages of missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
Fighting an existential threat, experts say, Tehran is aiming to raise the economic, political, and military pain of the conflict for the United States and secure an end to hostilities.
"Tehran appears to be wagering on [US President] Donald Trump's reluctance to become entangled in messy and costly wars, seeking to demonstrate that it possesses the capability to prolong the conflict and make it increasingly complex and expensive," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Incurring Direct Costs On US
Iran is imposing direct costs on the United States, which has so far lost six service members in the war.
Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have hit at least six of the estimated 19 US military facilities across the Middle East that house around 40,000 American troops. That includes sites in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Tehran has also targeted US diplomatic facilities in the region. The US Embassy in Riyadh was struck by two suspected Iranian drones on March 3, causing a fire. A fire was also reported near the US Embassy in Kuwait on March 2 following Iranian drone attacks.
Global Energy Rattled
Iran is also pressuring the United States by targeting Washington's Arab partners. Iranian attacks on the Gulf states have not been limited to US military installations. Major airports, luxury hotels, and key energy facilities have also been struck.
Iranian drones targeted a power plant and energy facility in Qatar on March 2, leading one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas to stop production. A key oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was partially shut down after Iranian drones targeted the facility.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, and vessels have rerouted since the start of the war. About a fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
The combination of attacks on key energy facilities and disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf, a region that produces around 40 percent of the world's oil, has sent the prices of oil and natural gas soaring and raised fears over global supplies.
New War Front
Iran's key nonstate ally, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, opened a second front in the war when it launched rocket and drone attacks on Israel on March 2. Israel has retaliated with air strikes that have killed scores of people and sent in additional forces into southern Lebanon on March 3.
Other members of Iran's so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran's regional network of armed proxies and partners -- have pledged to join the war, including Yemen's Huthi rebels and pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq.
The Huthi rebels have threatened to withdraw from a cease-fire deal reached with the United States last year. The armed group agreed to halt their missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. In exchange, the United States pledged to stop air strikes targeting the group.
"The potential entry -- or deeper engagement -- of Hezbollah and possibly the Huthis would significantly expand escalation boundaries," said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University on March 2.
"Such involvement would both increase pressure for de-escalation internationally and raise the economic and security costs for Israel and Gulf states. This aligns with Tehran's longstanding doctrine of expanding the geographic scope of confrontation in order to dilute direct pressure on the Iranian homeland."
Kian Sharifi contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL
Explosions Seen In Multiple Middle East Cities As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran
Smoke rises from an explosion in Tehran.
Images captured on February 28 show blasts in Iran, Israel, and several other Middle Eastern countries as US President Donald Trump says "major combat operations" are underway against Iran.