Middle East
Israel Presses Ahead With Lebanon Incursion After Strikes On Beirut Kill 9
Israel's incursion into south Lebanon continued on October 3 hours after a strike on an apartment building in downtown Beirut killed 9 people while a separate action in the West Bank eliminated a Palestinian militant who was once involved in the lynchings of Israeli reservists.
The Israeli Army also urged the immediate evacuation of more than 20 towns in south Lebanon including the provincial capital, Nabatieh, a move that apparently indicates the Israeli operation against Hezbollah is about to be expanded.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
The Lebanese Health Ministry said the strike on Beirut killed 9 people, in what was the first attack on the center of the Lebanese capital since 2006 as Iran's military warned it would launch broader strikes if the Jewish state responds to its October 1 missile attack.
Israel said its air strike on Beirut was a precise operation, while a security source said the target was an apartment building in the capital's central district of Bachoura near the Lebanese parliament.
A Hezbollah-linked civil defense group said seven of its members, including two medics, had been killed in the Beirut attack.
A separate missile attack on a building in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil killed 15 Hezbollah members, while another strike targeted the southern suburb of Dahiyeh, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week, according to Lebanese security officials.
Hamas media and medics, meanwhile, said Israel has killed Abdel-Aziz Salha, a West Bank militant from the U.S. and EU terrorist-designated group who had once been jailed for life for taking part in the lynching of two Israeli reservists in Ramallah in 2000 but was later deported to Gaza in a prisoner swap.
Also on October 3, Israel's military announced that it had "eliminated" Rawhi Mushtaha, the head of the Hamas government in Gaza, along with senior security officials Sameh al-Siraj and Sami Oudeh in strikes three months ago.
Earlier, an Israeli strike on Syria's capital, Damascus, killed four people, including Hassan Jaafar al-Qasir, Nasrallah's son-in-law, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor.
The latest Israeli strikes came a day after Israel reported that eight of its soldiers were killed during its incursion in south Lebanon -- the deadliest day for the Israeli military since launching the cross-border raid this week.
The Lebanese Army reported on October 3 that two of its soldiers were killed over the past 24 hours by Israeli fire, while Health Minister Firass Abiad said that a total of 1,974 people have been killed, including 127 children, and 9,384 wounded since the start of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon over the past year.
Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the German and Austrian ambassadors on October 3 after their governments rebuked Tehran over its missile attack on Israel, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.
The move came in response to "unacceptable measures" by Germany and Austria in summoning Iran's envoys over the October 1 attack.
Tehran launched a massive ballistic-missile attack on Israel on October 1, its largest so far, in retaliation for the campaign started by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah, prompting warnings of countermeasures from Israel and its main ally, the United States.
Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, though some landed in central and southern Israel.
On October 2, Iran's military chief, Major General Mohammad Bagheri said the missile attack launched by Tehran had been limited to military targets, but claimed that in case of an Israeli response, larger Iranian strikes would follow.
"If the Zionist regime is not controlled and takes action against Iran, we will target all of its infrastructure," he said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said in a message on X that the attack targeted "solely military and security sites" involved in what he said was the Israeli "genocide in Gaza and Lebanon" and was conducted by Iran in "self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter."
Bagheri's statement came after Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian also warned Israel against retaliating and promised a strong response.
"We are not looking for war. It is Israel that forces us to react," Pezeshkian said after arriving in Qatar for a summit with Asian countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he would strike back at Iran following the October 1 missile attack as fears grow of a full-blown regional war, while Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, told CNN that the response to the Iranian attack will be "very strong, painful," and will come "soon.”
There has been speculation that Israeli might attack sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program, but U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support that.
Biden's comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven (G7) leaders spoke by phone on October 2 to discuss coordinating new sanctions against Iran.
The G7 leaders "unequivocally condemned Iran's attack against Israel" and Biden reiterated the United States' "full solidarity and support to Israel and its people," a White House statement said.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on October 3 thrashed the G7 statement, saying that the West's condemnation of its attack on Israel was "biased and irresponsible."
Moldovans Who Survived Air Strikes On Lebanon 'Left With Nothing'
A group of Moldovan citizens who had been living in Lebanon say they had to flee with their children, leaving nothing behind, in the wake of Israeli air attacks targeting Hezbollah. The 11 returnees, mostly mothers, sons, and daughters, were flown to safety in Chisinau by aid organizations and arrived on October 3. Hezbollah is both a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
- By dpa
Iran Summons German Ambassador Over Remarks About Attack On Israel
Iran summoned the German ambassador on October 3 over differences concerning the situation in the Middle East, the Iranian state news agency IRNA reported. Alongside German Ambassador Markus Potzel, the head of Austria's diplomatic mission in Tehran was summoned separately to the Foreign Ministry, IRNA said. The step comes after Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry in Berlin on October 2 in response to Iran's attack on Israel. The ambassador was out of town so the charge d'affaires of the embassy was made aware that the German government condemned the attack in the strongest possible terms.
Iranians Fear 'War Is Coming' After Tehran's Missile Attack On Israel
Hundreds of people celebrated on the streets of Tehran after Iran launched its biggest-ever attack on Israel on October 1.
“This attack showed Iran’s power and authority,” Abbas, who was among the crowd in the Iranian capital, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
But many Iranians who spoke to Radio Farda expressed fear of Israeli military retaliation and the prospect of an all-out war with Israel.
“We’ve been in a state of fear and stress for months,” said Naghmeh, a resident of Tehran. “Now we look to the skies to see when [Israel] will attack.”
Israel has vowed a severe response to Iran’s massive missile attack on October 1.
The assault was bigger and bolder than Iran’s unprecedented strikes on Israel in April, when Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at its archenemy. Israel retaliated by hitting an air-defense radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
Experts have warned of a stronger Israeli response, and media reports say Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or critical infrastructure, a prospect that has alarmed Iranians.
“This time, the prospect of war is more serious,” Parastu, a journalist in Tehran, told Radio Farda.
She said many Iranians have stocked up on food and medicine following Iran’s attack. There have been long lines at gas stations in the city, she said.
'People Live In Fear'
Maryam, who saw missiles being launched at Israel from Iran on October 1, said ordinary Iranians will pay the “highest cost.”
“While the officials and their families live in peace, people live in fear,” she said.
Alireza, another Iranian, told Radio Farda that he was considering selling his assets and moving abroad because “it seems that this time, war is coming.”
Several younger Iranians who spoke to Radio Farda appeared unfazed by the prospect of war. That has surprised the generation of Iranians who witnessed the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
“They have no understanding of war and its consequences,” said Fereshteh, who is from Khuzestan Province, one of the worst-hit areas during the war with Iraq. “It looks like we’re going to be displaced again.”
The fear is not just limited to Iranians.
Members of Iran’s sizeable Afghan community, some of whom fled Taliban rule in Afghanistan, are scared that they might be forced to leave the Islamic republic.
“We had no choice but to flee Afghanistan for Iran out of fears for our lives, but today the rising tensions between Iran and Israel suggest that the region is on the brink of war,” Afghan women’s rights activist Halima Pazhwak told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.
“We don’t know where to go from here,” she added.
Written by Kian Sharifi based on reporting by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda and Radio Azadi. The full names of the people who spoke to Radio Farda have been withheld for their safety.
- By Yassin Jaber and
- Frud Bezhan
Sleeping On Beaches, In Cars: Lebanon's Displaced Have Nowhere To Go Amid Israeli Bombing
Mahmoud sleeps on a blanket with his wife and 2-year-old son on a beach in Lebanon's capital, Beirut.
They are among the tens of thousands of people who have sought refuge in Beirut after fleeing Israel's devastating air raids across Lebanon.
"We came to Beirut because we thought the city would be safer," Mahmoud said. "But now we sleep here, on the beach, with nothing."
Mahmoud and his family fled the town of Ghaziyeh in southern Lebanon, one of the worst-hit areas, after Israeli air strikes damaged their home. After boarding a packed bus with only three backpacks, they arrived in Beirut after a 20-hour journey through traffic-choked roads.
Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon and its ongoing air strikes targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, has taken a huge toll on civilians.
Lebanese officials say more than 1,100 people have been killed since Israel launched its aerial bombardment on September 23. Around 1.2 million people have been displaced, a fifth of the population, in the biggest displacement in the country's history.
In Beirut, schools, universities, mosques, and even soccer stadiums have been converted to shelters for the displaced. Even then, thousands have nowhere to go and are sleeping on beaches, in parks and squares, or in their cars.
Mahmoud and his family have spent the last four days at Beirut's El Manara beach. They have been surviving on food donations from locals.
"We don't know what to do," Mahmoud said. "All the shelters are full."
The family fear that soon they may be forced to relocate again. Beirut, a densely populated city of some 2.5 million, has been the scene of deadly Israeli air raids that have left parts of it in ruins.
"We are terrified," Mahmoud said. "Every day the bombs drop closer. But we don't know where to go next."
Brewing Humanitarian Crisis
Lebanon's caretaker government, overwhelmed by the scale of the displacement in the country, is already struggling to help everyone in need. Shelters have been overwhelmed, despite the local authorities converting some 500 schools into temporary lodgings.
The World Food Program has launched an emergency operation to provide food for the over 1 million people affected by Israel's escalating offensive in Lebanon.
The organization, which warned that Lebanon was at "breaking point," said it was distributing meals and cash to shelters across the country.
Israel on October 1 launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, a move that is likely to aggravate the brewing humanitarian crisis in the Middle Eastern country.
Soon after Israeli forces crossed the border for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006, the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of dozens of communities in southern Lebanon.
'Nobody Feels Safe'
Even in Beirut, thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes as Israeli warplanes pound parts of the city, the third-largest in the Middle East.
Among them is Mariya, a bank employee, who has already moved twice within the city.
"Last week, me, my mum, and sister left our apartment after an air strike struck just two streets away," said the 27-year-old, who lived in the Msaytbeh neighborhood in central Beirut. "We are now staying with relatives in another part of the city. But nobody feels safe."
The city's southern suburbs are a stronghold of Hezbollah, a U.S. -designated terrorist group, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Made up of blocks of residential apartment buildings, the area has been pummeled by Israeli air strikes. Resembling a ghost town, south Beirut is largely empty and the scene of bombed-out buildings and rubble-strewn streets.
Mariya says she has witnessed some displaced people in Beirut breaking into hotels and empty buildings as they desperately try to find shelter.
"We can't switch off the lights in our apartment because someone might try to break in," she said. "There is chaos in Beirut. "There is no order. People don't know what will come next."
'This Is Different'
Manal, a mother of two, has yet to relocate from her apartment in the neighborhood of Bourj Abi Haidar in central Beirut.
But she fears that it is just a matter of time before she is forced to flee.
"We pack our bags every night, just in case," said the 40-year-old chemist. "The sound of the bombs is constant. It feels like the earth is shaking beneath our feet."
Manal said some of her friends and relatives have fled to the mountains above Beirut to seek safety. "But even there, they say the bombs are following them," she said.
Manal witnessed the Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006, which was triggered by the Lebanese group's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers.
During the 34-day conflict, massive Israel air raids targeting Hezbollah and civilian infrastructure killed over 1,100 people in Lebanon.
"I've lived through wars before, but this is different," Manal said. "There is no safe place. The entire country is under siege."
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran Braces For Major Blowback After Biggest-Ever Attack On Israel
Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, Tehran's largest-ever direct attack on its archenemy.
The October 1 attack was bigger and bolder than Iran's unprecedented strikes on Israel in April. Tehran also used more advanced missiles and gave little warning before launching its latest attack.
The full extent of the damage and casualties caused by Iran's missile attack is still unclear. But Israel has vowed a severe response.
Experts said Israel's retaliation is likely to be stronger compared to April, when its response was relatively muted, given the larger scale of Iran's latest direct attack.
"Israel is certainly going to deal a much more devastating blow to Iran," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
Risking Israeli Retaliation
Iran described its October 1 attack as retaliation for Israel's invasion of Lebanon and devastating yearlong war in the Gaza Strip as well as Israel's recent assassinations of key Iranian allies in the region.
Israeli forces launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1 following a week of devastating air raids.
Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27 killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Israeli attacks have decimated the leadership and degraded the fighting capabilities of Hezbollah, Iran's closest ally and key to Tehran's strategy of deterrence against Israel. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Meanwhile, Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas and an ally of Iran, was killed in a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran in July.
Experts said domestic pressure to respond to Israel and Iran's weakening position in the region forced Tehran's hand.
"Iran seems to have come to the conclusion that the costs of inaction outweighed the risks of taking action," said Vaez.
"Tehran no doubt is aware of the risks in not only repeating but expanding its missile barrage it rained on Israel, thereby inviting an Israeli retaliation that seems all but certain to follow," he added.
Big Attack, Big Response
Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel in April, Tehran's first-ever direct assault on its foe, was highly telegraphed. Iran also used long-range drones and older missiles in that attack.
In comparison, Iran's October 1 attack was "very substantial," said Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Preliminary evidence, he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda, suggests that Iran used ballistic missiles, which reached Israel in just minutes. The likely goal, Hinz says, was to give Israel limited time to prepare.
In April, Israel responded to Iran's attack by hitting an air-defense radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
But experts warn that Israeli retaliation is likely to be more severe this time.
Media reports citing Israeli officials said the country could strike strategic sites inside Iran, including energy facilities.
A possible Israeli strike on an oil or gas facility in energy-rich Iran would be optically spectacular, but not strategically damaging, said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.
Hitting a nuclear facility, Nadimi told Radio Farda, would be riskier and require a large attack, considering that Iran's key nuclear infrastructure is deep underground.
Strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, which Israel and the United States have reportedly rehearsed, could push Tehran to weaponize its nuclear program, experts have warned.
"Regardless of [Israel's] target, such a blow is bound to compel Tehran to retaliate, triggering a ballistic missile ping-pong that could push the entire region into an abyss," Vaez said.
Hannah Kaviani and Mohammad Zarghami of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian President Vows 'Harsher Response' If Israel Retaliates Against Tehran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on October 2 that he is not seeking war but warned Israel against retaliating against Iran's missile attack the day before, promising a strong response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions amid growing fears of a wider regional conflict.
"We are not looking for war. It is Israel that forces us to react," Pezeshkian said after arriving in Qatar for a summit with Asian countries.
Pezeshkian criticised Israel over the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU -- in July in Tehran, an assassination Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility for.
"We also want security and peace. It was Israel that assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran," Pezeshkian was quoted saying on his arrival in Qatar.
Pezeshkian arrived in Qatar a day after Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel stepped up its war with Tehran's proxy Hezbollah by sending troops over the border into Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he would strike back at Iran following the October 1 missile attack.
"If the Zionist regime (Israel) does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions," Pezeshkian said as he left for the trip, Iranian state media reported.
He added that the United States and European countries should tell Israel not to destabilize the region.
He reiterated his remarks at a joint press conference in Doha with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, saying that if Israel acts in one way against Iran then Tehran will respond in a more severe way.
Tehran on October 1 launched a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel, its largest so far, in retaliation for the campaign launched by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, prompting warnings of countermeasures from Israel and its main ally, the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a message on X that the attack targeted "solely military and security sites" involved in what he said was the Israeli "genocide in Gaza and Lebanon" and was conducted by Iran in "self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter."
"Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Araghchi said.
Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) earlier said the missile attack was in response to Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
People who left audio messages for RFE/RL's Radio Farda in response to the attack indicated they had little hope that anything would change.
"The Islamic republic wanted to show pragmatism, but some in analytical circles (experts and journalists) who live outside of Iran, voiced support for war [and] pushed Iran to attack. Nothing will happen and [it] went hand in hand with hard-liners inside," said one man. "You can't just call for war and bloodshed living in the free world. This is against the basics of democracy. Please help. The world needs peace."
A woman said it was "ridiculous," and noted that some missiles landed inside Iran.
"They think they can do anything. They lit a fire -- I hope they burn in it as well," she said.
Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, though some landed in central and southern Israel.
Israeli rescuers said two people were lightly injured by shrapnel while in the occupied West Bank, and a Palestinian was killed in Jericho "when pieces of a rocket fell from the sky and hit him," according to the city's governor Hussein Hamayel.
In Damascus, Syria, on October 2, an attack took place in the upscale Mezzeh neighborhood. The official Syrian news agency says three people were killed in the attack that targeted an apartment. The Syrian Observatory says the apartment is used by officers from the IRGC and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah said it repelled the Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, and Israel reported its first losses -- eight soldiers killed -- since launching cross-border raids this week.
Iran's UN envoy said at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that the only way to prevent further escalation is for Israel to end the war in Gaza and stop attacks on Lebanon.
Iran's missile attack was "to restore balance and deterrence" and further escalation could be avoided if Israel stopped the war in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon, said Iranian UN Ambassador Amir Saied Iravani.
"Iran is fully prepared to take further defensive measures, if necessary, to protect its legitimate interests and defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty against any acts of military aggression and the illegal use of force," he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the October 1 attack "a big mistake" and said Tehran "will pay for it."
There has been speculation that Israeli might attack sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program, but U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support that.
Biden’s comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven leaders spoke by phone on October 2 to discuss coordinating new sanctions against Iran.
The G7 leaders "unequivocally condemned Iran's attack against Israel” and Biden reiterated the United States' "full solidarity and support to Israel and its people," a White House statement said.
- By AP
Iran Preparing Imminent Ballistic Missile Attack On Israel, U.S. Official Says
Iran is preparing to "imminently" launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, according to a senior U.S. administration official who warned of "severe consequences" should it take place. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the United States is actively supporting Israeli defensive preparations. Iran’s state media has not suggested any attack is imminent. This comes after the Israeli military on October 1 warned people to evacuate nearly two dozen Lebanese border communities hours after announcing what it said were limited ground operations against Hezbollah. White House officials did not immediately offer any evidence backing its intelligence finding.
- By Kian Sharifi
Why Has Israel Launched A Ground Invasion Of Lebanon?
Israel has invaded southern Lebanon, in what it has called a “limited, localized, and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah.
Israeli forces on October 1 crossed the border for the first time since the 34-day Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
What Is Israel’s Goal?
The Israeli military has said its aim is to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. One army division, which usually numbers more than 10,000 soldiers, is involved, it said.
Israel last month made the return of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel displaced by Hezbollah attacks a key war aim. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip in October 2023.
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border, including tunnels and observations posts.
“In that sense it is ‘limited,’ as the goal is not to defeat Hezbollah, which would require a much broader invasion of most of Lebanon,” he said.
But it is unclear if Israel’s invasion will be limited in scope.
U.S. officials have noted that Israel initially billed its 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon a “limited” attack, which turned into an 18-year occupation.
Israel has also ordered communities in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers from the border, raising concerns of a larger offensive.
Horowitz said Israel risks being “pulled in even deeper” if it tries to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. But he said Israeli leaders likely want to avoid being dragged into a protracted war.
“At the same time, if Israeli troops pull back, Hezbollah is likely to come back and launch new attacks against Israel, which would be embarrassing for the Israeli government,” he said.
Can Hezbollah Put Up A Fight?
Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated most of its leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
While Hezbollah has been weakened, experts said the group should not be written off, given its considerable manpower and military arsenal.
Israel thinks Hezbollah is “in a state of chaos, and there's a gap in the command-and-control system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “We can expect initial advances and successes by Israel.”
But Hezbollah, he said, has a “considerable advantage” in ground fighting because of the group’s experience in guerilla warfare and familiarity with local terrain.
Since it was formed in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has grown to become the dominant military power in Lebanon, effectively sidelining the country’s conventional army.
Azizi said the Lebanese Army is “comparatively weak” compared to Hezbollah, which is estimated to have some 40,000 fighters.
The army has only a limited presence in southern Lebanon, where a UN peacekeeping force is deployed. With Hezbollah controlling much of the region, the Lebanese Army is unlikely to play a major role in ground combat with Israeli forces.
The Lebanese army “simply isn't built to defend Lebanon from the [Israeli Defense Forces] and, there is probably a lot of international pressure to move it out of the way,” said Horowitz.
Will Iran Get Involved?
Iran, Hezbollah’s key ally, has been under pressure to respond after Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of the organization, in air strikes in Beirut on September 27. Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon is only likely to heap more pressure on Tehran.
But experts said Tehran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could provoke all-out war with its archenemy.
When another Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was at risk of being toppled during that country’s civil war, Iran intervened to keep him in power.
But Azizi said Iran is unlikely to deploy proxy forces as well as its own military advisers -- as it did in Syria -- in Lebanon.
The Lebanese government has also blocked Iranian planes from entering the country’s airspace after threats from Israel.
Azizi argued that Iran’s only viable option is to help other members of its so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran’s loose network of proxies and allies – to “mobilize and increase their attacks against Israel.”
'When Iran Is Finally Freed': Netanyahu's Video Message Goes Viral On Persian Social Media
Shortly before Israel launched its ground operation into southern Lebanon aimed at disrupting the operations of Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video message to the people of Iran.
He said Israel is "by your side" but warned that "there is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country."
And "with every passing moment," he said, the Iranian regime is bringing "the noble Persian people closer to the abyss."
In the video, released on September 30 in English with Persian subtitles, Netanyahu said that if the Iranian government really cared about its people, "it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East."
However, what really caught the attention of Iranian viewers was when Netanyahu said, "When Iran is finally freed -- and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think -- everything will be different.”
It's not the first time the Israeli prime minister has addressed Iranians directly in a video message. The Israeli government and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) maintain dedicated Persian-speaking social media accounts and frequently share content with the aim of influencing Iranians, particularly those who are against the regime in Tehran.
Netanyahu's latest video was met with both worry and support on Persian-language social media.
Saeed Ghasseminejad of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C., said he believes Iranians “welcome” such messaging by Netanyahu, saying, "The nation of Iran and the nation of Israel have common interests in overthrowing the Islamic republic."
Others, however, saw it as a "concerning" indication that military action against Iran is imminent, while some said they believed Netanyahu's video -- aimed at ordinary Iranians -- was a reminder to the Islamic republic's rulers that they did not have the support of the people.
Kaveh Shirzad, a France-based political activist, welcomed Netanyahu’s message while acknowledging that the Israeli prime minister "is not a saint," saying, “There are criticisms of his performance."
"Personally," he said, "I am waiting for Israel's practical steps, and I hope that [Netanyahu's] speech will not remain mere words."
Shirzad said he hopes Nenatnyahu “will help the people of Iran in overthrowing the government and achieving a stable democracy."
Ramin Parham, a Paris-based writer and commentator, wrote that while the content of Netanyahu's message may be welcomed, the problem is with the “messenger.”
"Change the medium (or the messenger) and the message will resonate," he wrote.
Some observers in Iran and beyond said such messaging from Israel actually plays into the hands of the Iranian state rather than supporting the plight of the Iranian people.
Paris-based anthropologist and writer Amin Bozorgian wrote on Telegram that Netanyahu's message represents a “fundamental discrediting of the will of Iranians” who wish to change their situation and is the “most exquisite gift of Netanyahu to the Iranian government.”
Bozorgian criticized “those who cheered Netanyahu from within Iran,” while stating, “Israel actually undermines the idea of change from within.”
Hamid Asefi, a political activist based in Tehran, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that "tragically" some in society are “tired of the political struggle of recent decades” and may well welcome such a message from Netanyahu.
However, Asefi, who was recently detained by the Iranian authorities for a short time, asked: “When did Israel liberate a group of people in this region, which is filled with authoritarian regimes?”
And he warned of the “catastrophic” results of a possible military attack on Iran’s infrastructure. As he told Radio Farda: “As long as [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei doesn’t listen to the hard-liners -- which up until now seems like he hasn’t, based on fear or pragmatism -- that's acceptable for us.”
Reza Rashidpour, an Iran-based media personality, said he was looking for more than just words from Israel, sarcastically writing on X: “Even when you go to the hairdresser, you ask for a sample of the work.”
"We heard that Netanyahu is going to bring freedom and peace to our country," Rashidpour wrote. "Can we see a sample first?"
Addressing concerns of a possible military attack on Iran by Israel, U.S.-based journalist Masoumeh Naseri wrote on X: “Bombs don't ask your political beliefs before they drop."
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Vows To Retaliate As Iran Launches Massive Missile Attack
Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Lebanon's Hezbollah in a new escalation of the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the country’s air defenses intercepted many of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, though some landed in central and southern Israel. He said the military was not aware of any injuries and told Israelis about an hour after the attack was launched that it was safe for them to leave their bomb shelters.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the attack "a big mistake" and said Tehran "will pay for it." He added: "Whoever attacks us, we attack them."
U.S. President Joe Biden said he would discuss a response with Netanyahu. Asked what the response would be, Biden replied: "That's in active discussion right now. That remains to be seen."
He added that the attack appears to have been "defeated and ineffective, and this is a testament to Israeli military capability and the U.S. military" and said the United States is "fully supportive of Israel."
One Palestinian was killed by falling debris from an intercepted missile, according to the mayor of the city of Jericho in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Israeli police reported that at least six people were killed and nine wounded in a shooting and stabbing attack in Tel Aviv.
Police said it was a "terrorist" attack carried out at a light rail station and the two attackers were later killed by civilians and inspectors using their own firearms. There has been no claim of responsibility.
While the missile attack sent Israelis scurrying to take cover in bomb shelters, it prompted people in Iran to celebrate. State television broadcast images from the city of Mashhad showing people in the streets waving the yellow flag of Hezbollah and portraits of the group's slain chief, Hassan Nasrallah. Similar celebrations also took place in the capital Tehran and in several provincial cities.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in the November 5 presidential election, monitored the attack together at the White House, and Harris said afterward that Iran is a "destabilizing, dangerous force in the Middle East."
National-security adviser Jake Sullivan called the attack a significant escalation by Iran but added that it was ultimately “defeated and ineffective” in part because of assistance from the U.S. military in shooting down some of the inbound missiles.
"Initial reports indicate that Israel was able to intercept the majority of incoming missiles and that there was minimal damage on the ground," Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder said, noting two American destroyers fired about a dozen interceptors as part of the defensive effort.
The number of ballistic missiles fired was about twice as many as were fired in an attack on Israel earlier this year, Ryder added in a briefing with journalists. The attack in April was in retaliation for a deadly Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the missile attack on October 1 targeted three military bases around Tel Aviv. It also warned that if Israel retaliated, Tehran's response would be "more crushing and ruinous." Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU, praised the attack as "heroic."
World leaders urged Iran and Israel to step back from the brink and negotiate a cease-fire.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the "broadening conflict in the Middle East" following fighting in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis. Guterres slammed "escalation after escalation" in the region.
"This must stop. We absolutely need a cease-fire," he said.
The UN Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting on the Middle East to take place on October 2.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also called for an immediate cease-fire and condemned Iran's attack "in the strongest terms," while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the attack was "totally unacceptable" and should be condemned by the entire world."
Earlier on October 1, the Israeli military said it had launched "targeted and precise" raids inside Lebanon in what it called a "limited" ground incursion that started overnight, adding that its troops were engaged in "heavy fighting" with Hezbollah, the militant group that controls much of the area.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. The European Union blacklists Hezbollah's armed wing but not its political party, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Israel has launched withering air attacks on Hezbollah in recent weeks, killing Nasrallah as well as claiming the lives of multiple Hezbollah leaders and other members of sanctioned militant groups.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran Faces Dilemma As It Weighs Response To Hezbollah Leader's Killing
Iran faces a major dilemma after Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a key ally of Tehran, in air strikes in Lebanon on September 27.
If Iran launches a direct military strike on Israel, it risks provoking an all-out war with its archenemy. If Tehran opts for restraint, it could suffer a blow to its reputation among both allies and foes in the region.
Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, is a leading member of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and armed groups against Israel.
The Shi’ite organization -- considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing -- is also key to Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel and the United States.
“Iran is in a sticky situation where it desperately wants to be able to respond, but fears the consequence of doing so directly,” said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
No Good Options
Iran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could trigger a costly full-scale war that Tehran has been keen to avoid, experts said.
In the event of a direct conflict, Israel has overwhelming military superiority, although Iran’s arsenal of drones and missiles poses a significant threat, according to experts.
“Iran’s options range from bad to worse against Israel given its conventional military deficiencies and the blows its regional terror network has endured,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
Iran in April launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel. It came soon after suspected Israeli air strikes killed seven senior Iranian commanders in Syria.
But Taleblu said the Islamic republic will likely only launch another direct attack on Israel if the threat is “existential and to the homeland.”
With direct confrontation likely off the table, experts said Iran could turn to other members of its axis -- including pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Yemen’s Huthi rebels, and militias in Syria -- to inflict damage on Israel and its key ally, the United States.
Iran’s axis of resistance has suffered major losses since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, casting doubt on its ability to retaliate against Israel.
Hamas has been severely weakened in the Palestinian enclave. Israel, meanwhile, has killed Nasrallah and most of Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon in recent months. Israel has also targeted the Huthis and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq.
Leaning Toward Restraint
Iranian leaders have appeared to be unusually restrained since Nasrallah’s killing.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not threatened a direct Iranian response. That contrasts with his explicit promise of revenge after Israel’s suspected killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, in Tehran in July.
“Iran walked back the promise of hard revenge and bloodlust after the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran because it felt things were at least politically going its way in the region,” said Taleblu.
“But the increasingly lethal and bold Israeli actions against Hezbollah in the past two weeks have been nothing short of a strategic game changer against the Islamic republic and its [axis of resistance],” he added.
Still, Iran appears to be adopting a strategy of restraint.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on September 30 that the country would not deploy forces to Lebanon or the Gaza Strip to fight Israel because Hamas and Hezbollah "have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression."
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Iran’s unwillingness to respond to Israel’s attacks on its allies could deal a blow to Tehran’s reputation and standing in the region.
“The perception is that Tehran is unable to enforce its own red lines against Israel,” he said. “Even if that is not true, it makes Iran look weak. And perceived weakness invites greater challenge.”
Going Nuclear
Even as Khamenei appears to be exercising restraint, hard-liners in Iran have called for military action against Israel. Some have even urged Tehran to weaponize the country’s nuclear program, arguing that only a nuclear deterrent will ensure Israel will not directly attack Iran.
Iranian media reports have said that the country has enough enriched uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs. But experts said it could take Iran months, or even more than a year, to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a bomb.
Sabet said Iran’s calculus could change if it determines that the capabilities of Hezbollah, Tehran’s key deterrent against Israel, have been significantly degraded.
“As the current regional conflict evolves, the Islamic republic may soon face a ‘use it or lose it’ moment, when it must decide whether to build nuclear weapons [or not],” said Sabet.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Extends Attacks To Huthis In Yemen As Fears Of All-Out War Rise
Israel's military widened its attacks on Iran-backed militant groups, striking the Yemeni port city of Hodeida that is held by Tehran-allied Huthi rebels, even as it intensified air strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon, raising fears among global leaders of an all-out Middle East war.
"In a large-scale air operation today, dozens of air-force aircraft, including fighter jets, refueling planes, and reconnaissance aircraft, attacked military-use targets of the Huthi terrorist regime in the Ras Issa and Hodeida areas of Yemen," military spokesman Captain David Avraham told AFP on September 29.
The military said the air strikes targeted a Huthi-operated power plant and seaport used to import oil and to allegedly receive Iranian weapons. Israel has previously attacked the port, most recently in July.
Yemen has endured a civil war since 2014, when Huthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, prompting Saudi-led forces to intervene in support of the internationally recognized government and leading to a massive humanitarian disaster in the country of some 40 million people on the southern Arabian Peninsula.
The vast majority of humanitarian aid arrives through Hodeida's deep-water port, although much of that has been disrupted since the Huthis seized the facility.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 29 that Israel would strike at foes no matter the distance.
Yemen's Huthi rebels, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza are considered to be Iranian proxies in the region. The Huthi rebels have been targeting ships in the Persian Gulf and launching missiles toward Israel over the past year, claiming it is in support of Hamas fighters in Gaza.
Hezbollah and Hamas have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States. The European Union also designates Hamas as a terrorist organization, as it does Hezbollah's armed wing but not its political party.
Israel's continued aerial attacks on Lebanon and now in Yemen come amid mounting calls from the United Nations and major powers – including close ally Washington -- for an easing of hostilities.
France announced that Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot had arrived in Beirut late on September 29 after Barrot spoke by phone with caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Paris also called for "an immediate halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon."
Mikati said in a televised speech earlier in the day that Lebanon had "no option but the diplomatic option."
U.S. President Joe Biden on September 29 told reporters that he would soon being speaking to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, although he didn't give a date.
Asked if an all-out war in the Middle East could still be prevented, he said: "It has to be. We really have to avoid it."
U.S. national-security spokesman John Kirby earlier warned that all-out war would not help Israel safely return people to their homes in the north of the country near the Lebanese border, where many thousands have been evacuated.
"An all-out war with Hezbollah, certainly with Iran, is not the way to do that. If you want to get those folks back home safely and sustainably, we believe that a diplomatic path is the right course," Kirby told CNN.
Kirby also said Washington was talking to Israeli leaders about what the best next measures in Lebanon might be and reiterated that U.S. support for Israel’s security was "iron-clad."
But he added that "we have made no bones about the fact that we don't necessarily see the tactical execution the same way that they do in terms of protection [of civilians]."
Iran has vowed a response for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a massive Israeli air strike in Beirut on September 27 and has signaled continuing support for groups confronting Israel, but it is also seeking an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
Israel's defense forces said on September 29 that they had conducted a "precise strike" on Hezbollah's southern Beirut stronghold.
Mikati has warned that the fighting could be displacing as many as 1 million Lebanese civilians.
Hezbollah confirmed that Israel's attacks killed the seventh of its leaders to die since mid-September, when Nabil Kaouk died on September 28.
Hezbollah also confirmed Israel's earlier assertion that another of its senior commanders, southern forces commander Ali Karaki, had died in the strike that killed Nasrallah.
WATCH: Police in Pakistan's biggest city, Karachi, fired tear gas and warning shots after protesters rallying against the death of Hassan Nasrallah threw stones and tried to cross barriers blocking access to the U.S. Consulate.
In response to the Israeli assault on Lebanon, Hezbollah has intensified its strikes on Israel, firing several hundred missiles a day, causing some injuries and property damage, although most have been intercepted by Israeli defense systems.
Netanyahu described the assassination of Nasrallah as a necessary move toward "changing the balance of power in the region for years to come."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted by the official Fars news agency as saying in New York that "Everyone should be aware that the situation is extremely explosive, and that everything is possible...even war." He said that "this horrible crime...will not go unanswered."
But with analysts expressing doubt about Tehran's willingness to risk a direct conflict with Israel or its ally the United States, he also signaled a diplomatic push. "The diplomatic apparatus will also use all its political, diplomatic, legal, and international capacities to pursue the criminals and their supporters," Araqchi said.
UN Security Council permanent members the United States and China urged de-escalation, while Russia warned of "fraught" and "dramatic" consequences for the region.
In his first statement since Israeli forces and Hezbollah confirmed the death of Nasrallah in massive air strikes in Beirut, Netanyahu said "Nasrallah was not a terrorist, he was the terrorist."
AFP and Reuters, both citing sources, reported on September 29 that Nasrallah's body had been recovered in Lebanon but that no date had been set for a funeral.
The Lebanese escalation comes as Israel's war in Gaza nears the one-year mark since U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group Hamas launched a cross-border attack that killed more than 1,200 people in Israel on October 7, many of them civilians.
There are fears of a rapidly expanding conflict that could include an Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon and eventually draw Iran and the United States directly into the fighting.
Israeli officials have said that a ground invasion of Lebanon is among their potential options.
Iranian media reported that Israel's September 27 attacks in Beirut had also killed a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
On September 28, Iran's mission to the United Nations reportedly called in a letter for an emergency meeting of the 15-member Security Council.
Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani is said to have accused Israel of committing "a flagrant act of terrorist aggression against residential areas in Beirut, using U.S.-supplied thousand-pound bunker busters."
On September 29, official media quoted the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, as pledging ongoing Iranian support for groups that "resist" Israel.
"We will not hesitate to go to any level in order to help the resistance," Qalibaf said, adding an accusation that the United States was "complicit" and "has to accept the repercussions."
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "gravely concerned" by the "dramatic escalation" in Lebanon. "This cycle of violence must stop now, and all sides must step back from the brink," Guterres said in a statement. "The people of Lebanon, the people of Israel, as well as the wider region, cannot afford an all-out war."
Security Council member Russia has condemned the killing of Nasrallah as "yet another political assassination" that is "fraught with even greater dramatic consequences for Lebanon and the entire Middle East."
On September 29, China's Foreign Ministry urged all parties, but especially Israel, to act to de-escalate the situation.
Pope Francis appealed to all parties involved in the ongoing violence "to cease fire immediately in Lebanon, in Gaza, in the rest of Palestine, and in Israel."
With reporting by Reuters and dpa
- By Kian Sharifi
Who Was Hassan Nasrallah, The Assassinated Leader Of Hezbollah?
Hassan Nasrallah was the longtime leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah confirmed on September 28 that Nasrallah was killed in massive Israeli strikes on the Lebanese, capital, Beirut the day before.
In his more than 30 years in charge of Hezbollah, Nasrallah transformed the Shi'ite militia into a major political force in Lebanon and a powerful adversary of neighboring Israel.
In that time, the 64-year-old cleric became one of the most powerful and polarizing figures in the Middle East.
To many members of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, a historically marginalized group, he was a hero. But others considered him a warmonger who dragged the country into regional conflicts.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Nasrallah was born in 1960 to a poor family in the southern suburbs of Beirut. After studying at a Shi'ite seminary in Iraq, Nasrallah joined the Amal movement, a militia that sought to elevate the status of Lebanon's Shi'ite community.
Following Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982 -- during Lebanon's devastating civil war -- Nasrallah joined the newly formed Hezbollah.
A charismatic cleric and skilled orator, Nasrallah quickly rose through Hezbollah's ranks. When Israel assassinated Hezbollah chief Abbas al-Musawi in 1992, Nasrallah was picked as his successor at the age of 32.
Nasrallah forged a close relationship with Shi'a-majority Iran, Hezbollah's key backer. With significant financial and political assistance from Tehran, Nasrallah built Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major player in the region.
Hezbollah's fight against Israel won Nasrallah support inside and outside Lebanon. In 2000, following persistent Hezbollah attacks, Israel withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation.
In 2006, Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers triggered a devastating 34-day war with Israel. Despite the destruction and loss of life caused, the war boosted the standing of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the region.
Under Nasrallah's leadership, Hezbollah came to the aid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during that country's civil war, trained Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen, and assisted Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group.
Hezbollah has also been accused of orchestrating the deadly 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in the Argentinian capital, Buenos Aires.
The cleric was rarely seen in public in the past two decades, with most of his supporters witnessing his once black beard turning gray only on television screens. Wearing a black turban, Nasrallah often delivered long speeches via video link from secret locations due to security concerns.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged constant cross-border attacks. Hezbollah has said that it is acting in solidarity with Palestinians.
Nasrallah's organization suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel assassinated key members of Hezbollah's leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
In his most recent speech on September 19, following suspected Israeli attacks targeting electronic devices used by members of Hezbollah, Nasrallah warned Israel that "retribution will come."
- By Kian Sharifi and
- Golnaz Esfandiari
Hassan Nasrallah's Death A 'Major Loss' For Hezbollah And Ally Iran
The death of Hassan Nasrallah is a significant blow to Hezbollah and the organization's key sponsor, Iran.
Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, said Nasrallah was killed in Israeli air strikes in the capital, Beirut, on September 27.
In his more than 30 years in charge of Hezbollah, Nasrallah transformed the Shi'ite militia into a major political force in Lebanon and a powerful adversary of neighboring Israel.
Hezbollah -- considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing -- is also a leading member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, a loose network of Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.
Nasrallah’s death is "a major loss and embarrassment" for Iran, said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order.
It constitutes the "heaviest blow to Tehran's regional standing" since the assassination of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. air strike in Iraq in 2020, Fathollah-Nejad told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Nasrallah, Soleimani, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "constituted the nucleus of Iran's expansive regional ambitions," he said.
A charismatic cleric and skilled orator, Nasrallah was picked as Hezbollah chief at the age of 32. With significant financial and political assistance from Tehran, Nasrallah built Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major player in the region.
The 64-year-old's death will have "serious implications" for the operations of Iran's axis of resistance, said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"In the short term, it will result in serious gaps, lack of coordination, and ambiguity," he told RFE/RL.
Yemen's Huthi rebels, another member of the axis, could take the mantle from Hezbollah if Iran decides to establish a new hierarchy in the network, Azizi says.
The Huthis have been "more effective" at challenging Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war than other axis members and suffered less blowback, Azizi said.
"But there is no guarantee that they will remain as such, given Israel's determination to go after [members of the axis] one by one," he added.
For Hezbollah, Nasrallah's death could be disastrous, experts say.
"Nasrallah will be difficult to replace," said Norman Roule, a veteran of the CIA who worked at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
"Any successor will lack his political stature in Lebanon and personal relationship with Iran’s supreme leader," Roule told Radio Farda.
Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated key members of its leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
"Israel's Defense Forces have eradicated an entire generation of Hezbollah leadership who take with them a collective pool of experience that is collectively irreplaceable," Roule said.
Heiko Wimmen of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said Hezbollah was too "institutionalized to be decapitated."
But, he added, the organization can only withstand so many "dramatic blows" before "something will eventually give," he told Radio Farda.
Smoke Rises Above Beirut After Israeli Strikes Kill Hezbollah Chief
Flames and billows of smoke could be seen in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, early on September 28 after a night of Israeli strikes. The strikes killed Hassan Nasrallah, a Shi'ite cleric leading the militant group Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the United States. Thousands of residents of Beirut's southern suburbs spent the night on the streets after they heeded an Israeli warning and evacuated their homes before the strikes.
- By RFE/RL
Hezbollah Confirms Nasrallah's Death As Biden Sees A 'Measure Of Justice'
Hours after the Iran-allied militant group Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in a massive Israeli air strike, violence flared again, with sirens blaring in Tel Aviv and Israeli forces continuing to hit targets in Beirut and southern Lebanon.
The Israeli military on September 28 said air-raid sirens had gone off at Tel Aviv's airport as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was returning from the United States and his speech at the United Nations, with officials saying missiles fired by Iran-backed Huthi rebels were intercepted over the city. No injuries were immediately reported.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said the death of Nasrallah brought "a measure of justice" to his many victims over the preceding decades and said Israel had the right to defend itself from a "terrorist organization."
It was not known if the missile attack at th Tel Aviv airport specifically targeted Netanyahu, who cut short his U.S. trip amid the latest violence, which intensified on September 27 when Israel launched a massive attack on southern Lebanon, killing Nasrallah and several other leaders of the U.S.-designated terrorist organization.
Israeli forces on September 28 continued their air strikes on sites they said housed Hezbollah commanders and weapons, including what they said was a "precise strike" on a site in Beirut.
After hours of widespread speculation, Hezbollah confirmed the Israeli military's earlier claim that it had killed Nasrallah in a series of strikes, which also claimed the lives of several other members of the group.
"Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, secretary-general of Hezbollah, has joined his great, immortal martyr comrades whom he led for about 30 years," Hezbollah said in a statement on September 28.
Hezbollah vowed to continue its fight against Israel despite the death of its longtime leader. It gave no indication of who might succeed Nasrallah.
U.S. officials said they were not informed ahead of the attacks by close ally Israel and played no role in the action, although the White House said U.S. officials were briefed that Israel was considering a plan to ramp up operations against Hezbollah, including a possible ground offensive.
Biden, in a statement released by the White House, said Nasrallah and Hezbollah were responsible for the deaths of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese over the past 40 years.
"Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror. His death from an Israeli air strike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians," he said.
Biden, whose term will end on January 20, 2025, said Washington fully supported Israel's right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas -- also designated a terrorist organization by the United States -- Huthi rebels, "and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups."
Biden later told reporters that "it's time for a cease-fire" when asked if a ground invasion by Israel was inevitable.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who is the Democratic nominee to face Republican Donald Trump in the November 5 presidential election, echoed Biden's remarks, saying, "Hassan Nasrallah was a terrorist with American blood on his hands."
"I have an unwavering commitment to the security of Israel. I will always support Israel's right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Huthis."
The State Department ordered some staff at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut and their eligible family members to leave Lebanon amid the escalating tensions.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said he was "gravely concerned" by the "dramatic escalation" seen in Lebanon over the past 24 hours.
Moscow, meanwhile, condemned the killing of Nasrallah, with the Foreign Ministry labeling it "yet another political assassination."
"This forceful action is fraught with even greater dramatic consequences for Lebanon and the entire Middle East," it said.
Early on September 28, Israel's military said that it killed Nasrallah in a series of strikes in Beirut a day earlier.
The Arabic spokesman of the Israeli Defense Forces, Avichay Adraee, said in a statement on X earlier that Nasrallah; Ali Karki, the commander of Hezbollah's southern front; and a number of other commanders of the group were killed.
The military later said it killed a senior member of Hezbollah's intelligence in a strike on September 28, identifying him as Hassan Khalil Yassin.
"The message is clear: We will reach everyone who threatens the citizens of Israel in the north, in the south, and on more distant fronts," Adraee said.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which has been targeted by sanctions from the United States, said a top commander, Abbas Nilforushan, 58, also died in the Israeli air strike.
Nilforushan himself was put under sanctions in 2022 by the U.S. Treasury, which identified him as the IRGC deputy commander for operations who it said had led an organization "directly in charge of protest suppression" in Iran.
The Israeli Defense Force also posted a message on X, saying, "Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world."
The Lebanese Health Ministry said at least 33 people had been killed and more nearly 195 injured, although it said the toll was likely to rise after the ruins of several destroyed buildings were cleared.
The United Nations estimated that more than 50,000 people have fled Lebanon for neighboring Syria amid the Israeli strikes and that some 110,000 people had been displaced.
In the statement announcing Nasrallah's death, Hezbollah also offered its condolences to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an open admission of the group's close ties with Tehran.
Khamenei earlier on September 28 issued a statement condemning what he said was an Israeli "massacre" in Lebanon, but did not mention Nasrallah's fate.
"The massacre of the defenseless people in Lebanon once again revealed the ferocity of the Zionist rabid dog to everyone, and proved the short-sighted and stupid policy of the leaders of the usurping regime," Khamenei said.
However, Reuters quoted sources as saying Khamenei had been transferred to a secure location, with heightened security measures in place.
Israeli media also reported on September 28 that Nasrallah's daughter, Zainab Nasrallah, had been killed in the strikes. Hezbollah has not confirmed the report. Nasrallah's son, Hadi, was killed in fighting against Israeli troops in 1997.
The Israeli military initially said on September 27 that the series of strikes had targeted Hezbollah's "central headquarters" located under residential buildings in Beirut without officially mentioning Nasrallah by name.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah's political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Hezbollah was established some 40 years ago with the aid of Iran, and Nasrallah joined the newly formed group in 1982. He oversaw it becoming one of the Middle East's most powerful paramilitary forces.
Led by Nasrallah, Hezbollah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed armed groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.
Heiko Wimmen, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that Israel's repeated blows, while not being able to annihilate Hezbollah completely, have degraded it to a large extent.
He said the latest strikes would press the group to show it can still react forcefully.
"It is obviously yet another dramatic blow. Many dramatic blows can add up to [make] a fundamental one. In general, Hamas is too much institutionalized to be decapitated, but [the Israelis] have wiped out so many of the cadres that something will give eventually. And then there is the lack to their credibility. If today is not enough for them to throw at Israel all they have, then the impression deepens that they just can't do it."
Analyst Norman Roule of the Washington-based National Security Institute said Israel has weakened Hezbollah to the point where the Lebanese government could actually expunge the group.
"Israel's Defense Forces have eradicated an entire generation of Hezbollah leadership who take with them a collective pool of experience that is collectively irreplaceable.... In a perfect world, the Lebanese government would use this moment to assert its authority and rid Lebanon of this armed group. [However], it is too early to say whether this will happen," Roule told RFE/RL.
Nasrallah's death is a huge embarrassment for Iran's leadership as well, Berlin-based analyst Ali Fathollah-nejad told RFE/RL.
"It would constitute the most heavy blow to Tehran's regional standing after the U.S. drone killing of General Qassem Soleimani. Nasrallah, Soleimani, and Khamenei -- Iran's supreme leader -- constituted the nucleus of Iran's expansive regional ambitions," Fathollah-nejad told RFE/RL before the death was confirmed.
Early on September 28, Israel's military launched a fresh round of strikes against what it said were Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut and in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, claiming that Hezbollah had stored weapons at the sites, after urging residents to evacuate them.
Rocket launches by Hezbollah into Israel were also reported to be continuing. The group has been firing into Israel with increasing intensity since the beginning of the Gaza war, claiming it to be in support of the fighters of Hamas, a group designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.
On September 27, Netanyahu warned at the United Nations that actions against Hezbollah would not stop, saying that "we’ll continue degrading Hezbollah until all our objectives are met."
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
- By RFE/RL
U.S. Urges Israel, Hezbollah To 'Stop Firing' While Iran, Russia Condemn Attacks On Lebanon
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted that "the path to diplomacy" is still open in the Middle East despite Israel's latest massive strike targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah's central headquarters in Lebanon, but he insisted Israel and Hezbollah must both "stop firing."
Elsewhere, Iran, Russia, and their allies condemned the strikes on a Beirut suburb -- which Israel TV said was aimed at Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah -- with Tehran calling it a "war crime."
The attacks against Hezbollah came as many world leaders -- including those from the Middle East -- were in New York for the annual UN General Assembly gathering on September 27.
They also came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned at the UN that his country would continue attacks against Hezbollah in its effort to "degrade" the militant group's capabilities.
The Israeli military acknowledged the attacks but did not directly confirm whether Nasrallah was the target, and his fate remained unknown and subject to widespread speculation in the hours following the action.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the global community to "stop" Israel from waging a "genocidal war" against Lebanon.
"This new Israeli aggression proves that the Israeli enemy doesn't care about all the international efforts and calls for a cease-fire," Mikati said.
In a news conference on the sidelines of the General Assembly, Blinken said, "The path to diplomacy may seem difficult to see at this moment, but it is there, and in our judgment, it is necessary. We will continue to work intensely."
"The most important thing to do through diplomacy is to try first to stop firing in both directions and then to use the time that we would have in such a cease-fire to see if we can reach a broader diplomatic agreement."
He added that Israel has a right to defend itself from Hezbollah, which has fired thousands of missiles inside Israeli territory with increased intensity since Israel's war in Gaza began. But he also added that the manner in which it defends itself is also important.
Leaders from around the world commented on the escalation.
EUROPEAN UNION -- Foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said, "What we do is to put all diplomatic pressure to a cease-fire, but nobody seems to be able to stop Netanyahu, neither in Gaza nor in the West Bank."
He said the Israeli leader has made it clear his country won't "stop until Hezbollah is destroyed," which will likely mean "a long war."
RUSSIA -- Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the Middle East was at the precipice of a "full-blown" war following the strikes in Lebanon.
JORDAN -- Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told reporters, "It is time to face the truth, and the truth is unless Netanyahu is stopped, unless this government is stopped, war will encompass all of us."
SAUDI ARABIA -- Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said Israel's strikes had increased the risk of the situation tumbling out of control.
"We believe very, very, very strongly that a cease-fire is necessary, that the guns are not going to solve anything, that we need to move toward peace in our region, and that peace is firmly rooted in addressing the Palestinian issue," he said.
GERMANY -- Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said, "We must avoid Lebanon becoming the next Gaza. This cannot be in Israel's interest either, especially not in terms of security.”
IRAN -- The Iranian Embassy in Lebanon warned of a "dangerous escalation" in the region. "This reprehensible crime...represents a dangerous escalation that changes the rules of the game," it said.
President Masud Pezeshkian also condemned the attacks, calling it a "clear and undeniable war crime."
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP
Israeli Strike Targets Hezbollah Leader In Beirut
Amateur video caught a huge blast in a suburb of Beirut as Israel said it had launched a strike targeting the headquarters of Hezbollah. Israeli TV said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the intended target.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Targets Hezbollah Leader In Massive Beirut Attack
Israeli launched a massive strike on what it said was Iran-allied Hezbollah's central headquarters in a Beirut suburb, with Israeli TV saying leader Hassan Nasrallah was the intended target, shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned at the UN that actions against the designated terrorist organization would not stop.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, Israel’s army spokesman, on September 27 said the country’s forces had targeted Hezbollah's main headquarters located under residential buildings.
"Moments ago, the Israel Defense Forces carried out a precise strike on the Central Headquarters of the Hezbollah terror organization…taking the necessary action to protect our people so that Israeli families can live in their homes, safely and securely," Hagari said.
WATCH: Amateur video caught a huge blast in a suburb of Beirut as Israel said it had launched a strike targeting the headquarters of Hezbollah. Israeli TV said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the intended target.
The Israeli military later said it had launched further widespread attacks on Hezbollah sites following the earlier strikes on the headquarters as it continued to "degrade and dismantle" the group's capabilities.
Shortly after midnight, the Israeli military said it had launched fresh strikes on three additional buildings in south Beirut, claiming that Hezbollah had stored weapons at the sites, after urging residents to evacuate them. It also reported strikes in the ancient city of Tyre early on September 28.
Israel also said its warplanes were patrolling near the Beirut Airport and insisted it would not allow Iran to transfer weapons to Hezbollah through the facility.
Speculation was rife on Nasrallah's whereabouts and condition following the attack, although no official information was immediately available.
The Israeli military did not confirm that Nasrallah was the target of the attack.
A senior Israeli official told Reuters that it "was too early" to tell whether Nasrallah had been hit in the strike.
The official said it was "hoped" Israel would not have to conduct a ground operation in Lebanon but that it would not rule it out.
Led by Nasrallah, Hezbollah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed armed groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.
Hezbollah-run Al-Manar TV reported at least four buildings were destroyed in the strikes, that there were heavy casualties, and that ambulances were headed to the site. The Lebanese Health Ministry said six people were killed and more than 90 were injured.
Video posted online indicated large areas of devastation.
Shahan Kandaharian, editor-in-chief of the Armenian-language Azdak daily in Beirut, reported hearing strong explosions.
"We learned that it was an air strike at Hezbollah's headquarters located in Beirut's southern suburb," he told RFE/RL's Armenian Service.
“The whole city was shaking. I was at the office and we could clearly hear the explosions. I heard 10 explosions, one following another," he added, adding it "was a very heavy strike."
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the United States did not have advance warning of the Israeli strike.
"The United States was not involved in this operation and we had no advanced warning," Singh told reporters.
Earlier, Netanyahu gave arch foe Iran a stark warning during his address to the United Nations General Assembly, saying there is "no place in Iran" that Israel can't reach if the Islamic republic continues to try and strike Israel.
He also said that “we’ll continue degrading Hezbollah until all our objectives are met."
As the Israeli prime minister began his speech, several delegations -- including Iran's -- walked out of the UNGA in protest while many who remained in the hall cheered or yelled angrily.
Netanyahu was preceded by speakers from Slovenia and Pakistan, both of whom called for him to stop the war in the Gaza Strip against Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
He said he didn't plan on giving a speech at the meeting this year but after hearing the "lies and slander leveled at my country by many of the speakers at this podium, I decided to come here and set the record straight."
Netanyahu then quickly turned his focus to Iran, which he blamed for "organizing" the current outbreak of violence in the Middle East.
"I have a message for the tyrants of Tehran: If you strike us, we will strike you," Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly.
"There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East."
Netanyahu said the UN Security Council should reimpose sanctions on Tehran to ensure it doesn't get nuclear weapons, adding Israel will do "everything in its power" to prevent such a scenario.
"We're defending ourselves, but we're also defending you against a common enemy that through violence and terror seeks to destroy our way of life," he said in reference to Iran.
Netenyahu's speech came amid a diplomatic push by the United States, France, and other Western allies for a 21-day cease-fire after fighting across the Lebanon-Israel border intensified this week with Israel bombarding what it says are targets of Iran-backed Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah, which Israel says has launched thousands of rockets at its territory over the past year, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
The intensified fighting has killed hundreds, according to Lebanese health officials, with aid agencies and governments on both sides saying tens of thousands more have been displaced.
Amid fears the conflict will spread across the entire Middle East, Washington has warned any further escalation would only make it harder for civilians on both sides to return home.
The White House has said the cease-fire proposal had been "coordinated" with Israel, but Netanyahu's office has said the prime minister has not responded to the proposal.
The war in Gaza broke out after Hamas fighters spilled across the border last October and killed some 1,200 people inside Israeli territory. Some 240 more people were taken back into the Gaza Strip as hostages.
Israel has launched a withering offensive against Hamas in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre.
In his speech to the UNGA, Netanyahu vowed "Hamas has got to go" and would have no role in the reconstruction of Gaza as he vowed to fight until "total victory."
With reporting by Reuters
- By Yassin Jaber and
- Frud Bezhan
Haunted By War: One Man's Fight For Survival As Israel Pounds Southern Lebanon
Abu Muhammad is one of only two people still living in a 12-story residential building in Lebanon’s southern city of Tyre.
Most of the city’s 200,000 residents have fled since Israel launched devastating air raids across the country on September 23.
It was chaos. I saw women giving birth on the side of the road.... There are bodies lying in the rubble. There’s nobody to bury them.”-- Salah, who fled the town of Aabbassiyeh
“There’s no life here anymore,” said Muhammad, who is a building janitor. “Everyone is gone. Nearly all the shops are closed. There is only one bakery open.”
Israel’s ongoing air strikes targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, has taken a huge toll on civilians.
Nearly 700 people have been killed and over 100,000 displaced just this week in Lebanon. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been accused of firing some 8,000 rockets into northern Israel in the past year, uprooting around 60,000 people, and killing several dozen, including civilians. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Scores have been killed in intense shelling and air strikes in and around Tyre, Lebanon’s fourth-largest city and one of the targets of Israel’s air campaign, residents said.
“When an air strike lands close by, I run to a nearby hospital for cover,” said Muhammad. “Otherwise, I stand guard near the entrance gate of the building so nobody tries to break in.”
Muhammad, who is in his 50s, said there is a severe shortage of fuel in the city and electricity is only available for a few hours in the evening. The prices of basic goods have skyrocketed, he said, and many people remaining in the city are relying on their emergency food supplies.
Only the thunder of shelling, the thud of bombs, and the roar of Israeli warplanes puncture the eerie silence enveloping Tyre, a coastal city along the Mediterranean Sea that is popular with vacationers, he said.
Muhammad moved to Tyre, known locally as Sur, after civil war erupted in 2011 in neighboring Syria. He sent his wife and three children back to Syria several months ago.
But Muhammad said he will remain in Tyre, despite the risks, even as tens of thousands of people frantically try to escape southern Lebanon for the relative safety of the capital, Beirut, and northern Lebanon.
The air strikes have been intense. Many people have been killed or wounded. There’s shelling all around us."-- Muhammad, a Palestinian refugee living in Tyre
“I’m already a refugee,” he said. “Where will I go? I don’t even have the means to leave.”
A bus ticket from Tyre to Beirut usually costs around $3. Now, he said, bus companies are charging up to $100 per person. A taxi costs at least $300, he said.
Escalating Conflict
Israel’s aerial bombardment of Lebanon is the deadliest since the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.
The two foes have traded constant cross-border strikes since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip in October, following an unprecedented attack on Israel by the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.
Israel has intensified its attacks against Hezbollah in recent weeks. On September 17-18, suspected Israeli attacks targeting electronic devices used by members of the armed group killed dozens of people and injured thousands.
Just days later, Israel launched what some have described as one the most intense air raids in modern warfare, hitting thousands of targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut.
Israeli officials in recent days have suggested that the country is preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon even as the United States attempts to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
'We Can’t Go Back'
As the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict escalates, ordinary Lebanese and Israelis are bearing the brunt of the violence.
Salah, an academic, fled the town of Aabbassiyeh, near Tyre, with his wife and son after their next-door neighbor’s house was flattened by an Israeli air strike.
“As I was driving out of the town, rockets and missiles were landing near us,” he said. “I saw a residential building collapse behind us.”
The drive to Beirut usually takes around one hour. But Salah’s family was on the road for nearly 30 hours, with the country’s main highway choked with thousands of cars.
“It was chaos,” Salah said. “I saw women giving birth on the side of the road. Some cars that had run out of fuel were abandoned. There were up to 10 people crammed in some cars. People were sitting on top of cars or in the trunk.”
Salah and his family are staying in a small apartment in Beirut, which has also been the target of Israeli strikes, with two other families. He does not know when he will be able to return home.
“The worst part is that we can’t go back,” he said. “If one of our relatives is killed there, we can’t bury them. The town is empty and there are bodies lying in the rubble. There’s nobody there to bury them.”
Even as many flee Tyre and neighboring towns, some residents are unable or unwilling to leave.
Among them is Muhammad, a Palestinian refugee whose parents fled to Lebanon decades ago.
“The air strikes in Tyre have been intense,” he said. “Many people have been killed or wounded. There’s shelling all around us. There’s the constant noise of jets flying over the city.”
Despite the grave danger, Muhammad is adamant that he and his family will not leave.
“If we die, I'd rather die in my own home,” said the father of three. “Whenever we hear an air strike, we rush to the basement. We hold hands and we pray.”
- By Kian Sharifi
What Is Hezbollah, The Iran-Backed Group Fighting Israel?
Hezbollah is both a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
The Shi'ite group emerged during the chaos of Lebanon's civil war and in response to Israel's invasion in 1982.
Hezbollah is believed to have been created by Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.
The aim of Shi'a-majority Iran was to unite Lebanon's Shi'ite political groups and militias under one organization, says Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Hezbollah was also intended to be a key part of Tehran's deterrence strategy.
"Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.
The U.S. State Department says Iran has armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars into the group. The State Department has previously described Hezbollah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."
Hezbollah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. director of national intelligence, and is said to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles at its disposal, including weapons that can penetrate deep into Israeli territory.
The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah has turned itself "into the world's most powerful nonstate actor."
Citrinowicz says Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.
He describes Hezbollah not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."
Hezbollah is a key part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, a loose alliance of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.
Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed armed groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.
Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.
Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers in 2006 triggered a 34-day conflict with Israel, which launched air strikes and a ground offensive into Lebanon.
The war, which ended after a UN-brokered cease-fire, was a major boost to Hezbollah's political standing in Lebanon and the region.
While Hezbollah remains a politically influential player in Lebanon, its support base does not extend beyond the country's Shi'ite community.
Many members of Lebanon's Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim communities accuse Hezbollah of operating outside the state's control and of dragging the country into regional conflicts.
"Hezbollah doesn't enjoy the same level of popularity and public support that it did back in 2006," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He attributes the decline in Hezbollah's popularity to a series of economic and political scandals involving the group in recent years.
Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months, with Israel killing many of its senior commanders, neutralizing a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupting its communications.
While the group has been weakened, experts say the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.
"Hezbollah has enough resources and experience to inflict considerable damage to Israel in a ground war," Azizi added, noting that the group is better armed and trained than the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
- By Kian Sharifi
Israel's Deadly Strikes On Lebanon Mark Start Of New War
Israel has conducted the deadliest bombardment of Lebanon since a devastating five-week conflict with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in 2006.
The September 23-24 attacks that killed hundreds of people mark the start of a new war between Israel and its longtime foe, Hezbollah, experts say.
The sides have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel launched its war in the Gaza Strip in October. Hezbollah has said it has fired rockets on Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.
But Israel's deadly air strikes, coming soon after a series of exploding device attacks in Lebanon that was widely blamed on Israel, indicate the outbreak of a new conflict.
"Both sides can escalate further, but we're already at a level of violence that matches the Second Lebanon War" in 2006, said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
The distinction between the ongoing conflict and a full-scale war "is becoming so narrow that it's almost irrelevant," Horowitz added.
Iran-backed Hezbollah is reeling from a series of setbacks in recent months as Israel has assassinated key members of its leadership and command structure. Israel's suspected attack last week targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters also compromised the group's communications.
Despite suffering significant losses, experts say the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.
Horowitz warned that putting Hezbollah "fully out of combat is not a realistic objective," given its military arsenal as well as its manpower, which numbers in the tens of thousands.
Hezbollah has retaliated to Israel's aerial bombardment by firing rockets at northern Israel. But the group has yet to use its more sophisticated weapons, such as drones and medium- and long-range rockets that can strike deep into Israeli territory.
Hezbollah insists it will continue to strike Israel unless a cease-fire deal is reached to end the Gaza war. Israel, however, says its goal is to ensure security along its northern border with Lebanon so that displaced Israelis can return home.
"The Israelis think that if they apply enough pressure on Hezbollah, the group will eventually agree to decouple the Lebanon front from the Gaza front -- or face so many losses that its ability to continue the war of attrition it waged against Israel for 11 months will be significantly reduced," Horowitz said.
But experts say Israel is adopting a dangerous strategy by ramping up its attacks against Hezbollah.
"The assessment may be that Israel can neutralize a significant part of Hezbollah's arsenal before the group can use it to carry out massive attacks against central Israel, and that Iran and Hezbollah may also be deterred from escalating," Horowitz said. "That's a very risky bet."
Iran, Hezbollah's key backer, has been reluctant to directly get involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Farda, London-based political commentator Jalali Hashemi said Hezbollah's relatively muted response to the September 23-24 attacks and Iran's unwillingness to get into a direct confrontation with Israel have emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out "more devastating attacks."
Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war on several occasions, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and pledged to retaliate, although there has been no direct military response by Iran.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian warned that Israel's air campaign in Lebanon "may turn into a regional war."
Ali Mohtadi, a Britain-based regional expert, said that during the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 Tehran refrained from getting directly involved in the hostilities. Instead, Iran provided its ally with logistical support and weapons.
"It is possible that this time, even though Iran is in a different place compared to 2006, it will continue to provide the same level of support to Lebanon [Hezbollah]," Mohtadi told Radio Farda.
With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad and Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By Kian Sharifi
Full-Blown War Between Israel And Iran-Backed Hezbollah 'Not In The Interests' Of Tehran
For months, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have traded constant cross-border attacks that have killed dozens and displaced thousands of people.
Now there are fears of a full-blown war between the foes amid the fallout from a deadly rocket attack from Lebanon hit the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Hezbollah quickly denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack that killed 12 people, including children. But Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Experts say no side wants an all-out war in a region that has been reeling since Israel in October launched its war against Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that runs the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of a major escalation.
"Though, I do think that neither side is interested in one," he said, adding that "a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is very dangerous" for Iran.
Tehran is Hezbollah's main ally, and the Lebanese militant group is a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of militant groups and proxies that aid it in opposing Israel and the United States.
Hezbollah is also considered a key part of Iran's efforts to deter Israel or Washington from going to war against Tehran.
'Too Costly' For Iran
Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have carried out attacks against Israel after it launched its devastating war in Gaza, which came shortly after Hamas's October 7 attack in Israel that killed around 1,200 people.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the goal of the attacks was to "pressure Israel" and "save Hamas," which is backed by Iran.
"This coordination has been clearly supported by Iran, but the final aim is not to expand the scope of the war but to end it," he added. "I don't think there is any way Iran would benefit from a war between Israel and Hezbollah."
Azizi said Iran and its allies have become increasingly concerned about the cost of their hostilities with Israel, which has retaliated by targeting the commanders, military facilities, and financial activities of Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is considered Iran's leading militant partner, helping Tehran manage its network of regional state and nonstate allies.
Horowitz described the Lebanese group as "the most powerful tool in Iran's arsenal" that in some ways may even be "more powerful than Iran itself" in deterring Israel.
If a war breaks out, Iran could be dragged in to defend its key ally, Horowitz said.
"And if Israel is already paying the price of fighting Hezbollah, Iran's main military force, it may also be willing to take more risks vis-a-vis Iran."
Hezbollah's Balancing Act
Hezbollah has not usually shied away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets. But it issued a rare denial of responsibility after the attack in the Golan Heights.
Horowitz attributed the denial to the civilian death toll, but also because the victims were all members of the Druze community, an Arabic-speaking ethnic and religious minority in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights, and northern Israel.
Horowitz said most members of the Druze community in the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981, do not see themselves as Israelis.
He added that Hezbollah is also aware that the Lebanese public does not want another costly war with Israel.
In 2006, Hezbollah's kidnapping of Israeli border guards ignited a devastating five-week conflict with Israel that killed 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians.
If there was a full-blown war with Israel, "many in Lebanon may ask why Hezbollah gambled the fate of a country already on the brink, and how the killing of Druze children and teenagers helped the Palestinian cause that Hezbollah claims to defend," Horowitz said.
What If War Breaks Out?
With tensions running high and Israel's security cabinet on July 29 authorizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate against Hezbollah, the prospect of a full-blown war appears to be real.
On the evening of July 30, Israel launched an air strike in Beirut that it said killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s leading military figures since it was founded in the 1980s. Hours later, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed on a visit to Tehran. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike against Haniyeh, Iran explicitly blamed its archfoe.
Prior to the two killings, Azizi said Iran and its regional allies were "prepared for another phase of significant but incremental escalation against Israel."
But he said whether Iran gets directly involved could depend on how a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah plays out.
If war broke out, members of the axis of resistance would likely intensify their attacks against Israel while also targeting U.S. troops and bases in the region in a bid to pressure Washington to rein in Israel, Azizi said.
He added that Hezbollah could defend itself and possibly respond if Israel limits its offensive to an aerial assault. But given that Israeli attacks have depleted its command in recent months, the Lebanese group could struggle to fend off a ground offensive, he said.
In that case, the overseas arm of the Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds Force, could put boots on the ground to help Hezbollah, Azizi said.
If the threat to Hezbollah grew, he added, Tehran could decide to directly target Israel as it did in April, when it launched an unprecedented direct air attack against its archenemy.
Horowitz said while direct Iranian involvement would be possible if Hezbollah sustained critical damage, Iran will still try to steer clear of exposing itself directly.
"After all, Hezbollah's role [in Iran's view] is to defend Tehran -- not the opposite," he said.
This article has been updated to include an Israeli strike in Beirut on July 30 and a second strike, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on July 31.
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