Middle East
- By Ray Furlong
After A Week Of War, Israel Sees Progress But Long Road Ahead
TEL AVIV -- Hidden away on a small street in a central district of town, the ruins of war come as something of a surprise. On nearby streets, hipsters fill outdoor cafes, Lime scooters clutter the sidewalks, and children play in parks. But turn a corner and you'll see blackened walls, smashed windows, and rubble-strewn cars.
This is almost the only site in Tel Aviv that bears the scars of war, following an Iranian strike on the first night of the conflict. As such, it bears witness to the destructive power of Tehran's ballistic missiles. But the lack of other such sites underlines Israel's ability to shoot them down.
It's an aspect of the war so far that is having a profound impact on how Israel approaches what comes next.
"The Israeli point of view is that, well, things are going back to normal here, more or less. We just have a few sirens a day. I mean, we are used to it. We can tolerate it," former lawmaker Ksenia Svetlova told RFE/RL.
The implication? For Israel, the long game is an easy choice.
"The Iranians right now are running low on ballistic missiles and specifically on launchers, but they still have drones. The drones cannot hurt Israel much. We know how to intercept them," said Svetlova, now executive director of an NGO called ROPES -- the Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security.
There is indeed an air of routine rather than alarm as people here make their way down to underground shelters whenever alerts sound on their phone apps.
Israel's capacity to intercept incoming drones and missiles is measurable by the civilian casualty toll, with 12 fatalities after a week of conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli and US forces have decapitated the Iranian leadership and appear to have massively downgraded Tehran's military capabilities.
"We are striking the enemy, its leadership, its oppressive regime, and different targets," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6, while visiting Beersheba, where some 20 people were injured in an Iranian strike earlier in the week.
The bullish tone in his remarks on the progress of the war matched the iconography of resolve that lines the streets here: Israeli and US flags can be seen everywhere, as can billboards depicting a Roaring Lion -- this country's military codename for the operation called Epic Fury by Washington.
Netanyahu has long called for regime change in Iran, as well as the destruction of its nuclear and missile programs. He has said the aim of this operation is "to crush the regime of terror completely."
Opinion polls show Israelis overwhelmingly support the war. Longstanding Netanyahu critics do, too.
Veteran opposition politician Avigdor Liberman told RFE/RL the war was going "very well" but that the "final result" was the key issue. This, he said, had to be "to topple this regime."
Liberman, who has served as ministers of defense, foreign affairs, and finance in various governments over the years, said he was confident this could be achieved but did not explain how.
The "worst case" would be Iran descending into "chaos" he said.
"It's really a huge question because what we saw in Libya, Iraq, Syria, it's real turmoil. But from all alternatives...the worst alternative is if [the clerical authorities] will continue to rule Iran," he said.
But reserve Major General Yaakov Amidror, a former national-security adviser for Netanyahu who clashed with him over policy on the West Bank, suggested the talk of regime change may not be serious.
"The goal of the war is a very strong agreement" between Israel and the United States, he told an event held by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JSIS) this week.
"First, to eliminate totally any ability which is connected either to the missiles or to the nuclear project. Any guy who was there, any building which was connected, any place which was connected, any capability which is needed, everything should be totally destroyed…. I think that both sides understand regime change is something that cannot be guaranteed," he said.
Given this, he added, the main aim was simply to cause as much damage as possible.
"What should be ensured by the operation, by the war, is that any regime, this one or another one, will be very, very weak," Amidror said.
The Israeli government has also not explained in detail how regime change could be achieved. There has been speculation in recent days about Iraqi Kurdish militias crossing the border and sparking an uprising.
Svetlova, who as a Knesset legislator was closely engaged in relations with Kurdish groups, said they would be "skeptical" of the idea, at least in the short term.
Which brings us back to the long game. On March 6, US President Donald Trump gave a timeframe of four to six weeks to achieve Iran's "unconditional surrender."
The Israeli government hopes "that the war will, first of all, last long enough" to sufficiently degrade Iran's defense and security capabilities, Svetlova said.
"In the end of the day, there will be maybe a beginning of civil war in Iran, between the various minority militias, the Basij [militia] forces, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)of course, the Iranian protests will resume, and then the regime will have to fight on many fronts rather than just one.... I think that's the hope."
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- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Navy Is Largely Gone. The Threat To The Strait Of Hormuz Is Not.
The United States and Israel have largely destroyed Iran's conventional naval fleet in a massive bombing campaign since February 28.
But Tehran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes, has not diminished. Iran has effectively closed the narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow, by using asymmetric warfare tactics.
Besides Iran's conventional navy, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces, has its own naval units that continue to hound and attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.
"While I think the Iranian Navy is largely combat ineffective at this point, the IRGC navy remains able to harass shipping," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"That maintains a specter of danger that most civilian shipping lines and insurers will find unacceptable," Bruchmann added.
Decimated Navy
The United States has decimated Iran's conventional navy since February 28.
The US military said on March 11 that it had sunk 60 Iranian vessels. Satellite imagery and publicly disclosed military footage suggest most of Iran's naval fleet has been damaged or destroyed.
Iran's two Mowj-class warships, its Alvand-class frigate Sabalan, and the forward-basing ship Makran -- which gave Tehran a limited long-range power projection capability -- are gone. So, too, are hundreds of the fast-attack boats that formed the backbone of the IRGC's naval asymmetric strategy in the Persian Gulf.
On March 4, a US submarine torpedoed Iran's IRIS Dena warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka as the frigate returned from multinational exercises, with roughly 180 personnel onboard.
It was the first confirmed wartime submarine sinking of a surface warship since Britain sank the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano in 1982 during the Falklands War, highlighting the reach and intent of the American campaign.
But those losses have not reduced Iran's threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf, experts say.
Iranian projectiles struck the Mayuree Naree, a Thai-flagged civilian tanker, on March 11 while it attempted to transit the strait. Photographs from the crew's evacuation showed damage just above the waterline near the stern, a typical signature of explosive-laden surface drones that strike at waterline level.
Iran's Naval Doctrine
Iran changed its naval doctrine after the US Navy sank around half of Iran's conventional fleet in a single day in April 1988. The attack was in retaliation for the mining of a US warship days earlier.
Experts say the incident showed Tehran that symmetrical naval warfare against a superpower was a losing proposition.
What followed was a decades-long pivot toward asymmetric tools such as fast-attack boats, shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines, midget submarines, and more recently, unmanned surface vessels (USVs) configured as floating bombs.
Iran institutionalized this split into two separate navies, symmetrical and asymmetrical forces.
The Iranian Navy, as part of the regular military, maintained a conventional fleet for prestige and occasional long-range deployments, including a transatlantic voyage as recently as 2021.
But the real warfighting instrument was the IRGC's navy units, which were purpose-built for harassment and denial operations in the Persian Gulf's shallow, island-cluttered waters, where geography compresses distances and partly neutralizes the advantages of a superior conventional force.
Over the years, the IRGC's naval force has released footage of underground storage facilities housing fast-attack boats, some likely configured as unmanned surface vessels or suicide boats.
It is a tactic used by Ukraine against the Russia's Black Sea Fleet, although experts say the Iranian variants are less technically sophisticated.
"I doubt they could inflict the same kind of damage on US warships that Ukraine could on Russian ships," Bruchmann said, adding the more plausible target is civilian shipping that supplies global oil markets.
US Central Command said on March 10 that it had sunk 16 Iranian mine-laying ships.
But Mohammad Farsi, a former Iranian naval officer, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the focus on mines misses the point.
"Any vessel can do it, even the IRGC speedboats currently in the Persian Gulf," he said.
"In my opinion as a naval officer, there is no need for Iran to plant mines in the mouth of the Persian Gulf right now. The reason ships aren't passing through is that companies know the probability of being hit is extremely high."
He pointed to Iranian drone capabilities near the islands of Qeshm, Hengam, and Larak -- positioned close to the main shipping lanes -- as the more immediate threat.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Kian Sharifi
Iran To Keep Strait Of Hormuz Closed, Supreme Leader Khamenei Says In First Public Comments
Iran must continue to keep a key Gulf shipping lane closed, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public comments since being named to succeed his late father, hours after several vessels were targeted in strikes as Tehran looks to choke off oil supplies from leaving the Middle East.
In the statement, which was read out on Iranian state TV by a female presenter on March 12, Khamenei said Iran will continue to seek to strike targets where "the enemy has little experience and will be severely vulnerable."
Iran has been launching air and water strikes at targets across the Middle East in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks that started on February 28, the day his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in one such bombardment.
The younger Khamenei was reportedly injured in that attack and had not been seen or heard from since. He was appointed as supreme leader on March 4.
In targeting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has tied up shipping on a waterway that accounts for around a fifth of all oil and gas transportation in the world.
Two tankers were ablaze in a port in the Persian Gulf on March 12 after they were hit by what are suspected to have been Iranian explosive-laden vessels, an escalation in attacks that have choked much of the oil leaving the Middle East and defying US President Donald Trump's claim a day earlier that the United States has "won" the war, which he said now just needs finishing.
Oil prices surged more than 9 percent to above $100 a barrel after the reports of further attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, in what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history.
Khamenei said Iran would "extract reparations" from those states that attack it, and if that is not possible, "We will destroy an equivalent amount of their assets."
In a bid to quell market jitters, Trump has said the surge in oil prices will be short-lived, but he has yet to explain how the war will end or present a plan to reopen the blockaded strait.
"You never like to say too early you won. We won," Trump told a campaign-style rally in Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11. "In the first hour it was over."
While the US and Israeli air attacks had "virtually destroyed Iran," he added that "we got to finish the job."
Trump has said the US Navy may be brought in to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC in an interview on March 12 that it may take several more weeks before that is possible.
"It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now,” Wright said in the March 12 interview. "We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities."
- By Frud Bezhan
US-Israeli Bombing Of Iran's Energy Infrastructure Marks New Escalation In War
The United States and Israel are bombing Iran's critical energy and civilian infrastructure, marking an escalation in the military campaign against the Islamic republic, experts say.
Israel has struck at least four oil depots around Tehran, Iran's sprawling capital, since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28. Other civilian infrastructure, including a commercial airport and a water treatment plant, has also been hit.
"The aim of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran's economic and energy infrastructure is not primarily economic," said Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "It is strategic. The objective is to weaken Iran to the point of regime collapse or state fragmentation."
Iran has also targeted critical energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, which has wreaked havoc and sent global energy prices soaring. Tehran's strategy, experts say, is to raise the economic costs of the war for the United States and its allies in the region.
The United States has rejected Tehran's accusation that it is deliberately targeting Iran's civilian infrastructure. Washington has attempted to distance itself from the Israeli attacks on Iran's petroleum facilities. But experts warn that the attacks could trigger a costly tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation.
"The most likely consequence is escalation," said Hanke, a former economic adviser to the administration of US President Ronald Reagan. "Iran's strategy is deterrence. It cannot match US-Israeli firepower, but it can raise the cost of the war. That means retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and other economic targets across the region are certain."
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on March 10 that Iran will take "an eye for an eye" approach. If Iranian infrastructure is targeted, he said, Tehran will respond in kind, with experts suggesting the infrastructure war could expand.
'Economic Warfare'
Israeli warplanes hit four oil storage facilities and a fuel logistics site in and around Tehran on March 8. The installations served the approximately 10 million people living in the city.
Tehran was draped in toxic black smoke for days as the oil facilities burned. The authorities issued urgent health warnings and experts warned of an environmental disaster.
The attacks triggered outrage among some Iranians. Axios reported on March 10 that the Trump administration asked Israel not to carry out further strikes on energy facilities in Iran, particularly oil infrastructure.
The repercussions of Israel's attacks are "potential shortages for fuel and gasoline, which could have ripple effects by causing food shortages, inflation, and power blackouts" in Iran, said Sina Azodi, an expert of Iran's military and history and an assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University.
The heavy US-Israel bombardment has also damaged or destroyed seaports and commercial airports, including Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport, one of two that serve the capital. Israeli air strikes on March 7 set the Tehran airport on fire.
On the same day, Iran accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant on the island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. CENTCOM spokesperson US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins rejected the accusation and said, "US forces do not target civilians -- period."
Tehran hit a water treatment plant in Bahrain the following day.
On March 10, US-Israeli air strikes struck Tehran's Resalat highway, one of the biggest in the city. The attack "resulted in the killing and injury of a large number of civilians," according to US-based rights group HRANA .
Over 1,200 civilians have been killed in Iran since the war began, according to HRANA. Homes, public buildings, and cultural sites have been damaged or destroyed in the aerial bombardment, angering some Iranians.
Azadi said Iran, the United States, and Israel were engaged in "economic warfare." The US-Israeli aim, he said, was to "break the morale of the Iranian population by punishing them and making their lives harder."
"They also aim to weaken and diminish Iran's economic output to stop it from being able to reinvest in its defense infrastructure," he said.
As part of that aim, experts said, the United States could attempt to seize or target the oil terminals in Iran's Kharg Island , which handles around 90 percent of all Iranian oil exports, in a move that could cut off the revenues that sustain Tehran's sanctions-hit economy.
US media reports say the Trump administration has discussed capturing the tiny island in the Persian Gulf.
Azodi said Iran will try to intensify the infrastructure war "as much as it can, given its vulnerabilities and military weakness compared to the US and Israel."
"Both sides will continue to escalate with the aim of forcing the other side to ‘say uncle' first," he added.
Georgian Sailors Survive Iranian Attack On Ship Off Iraqi Coast
All 23 Georgian crew members aboard a Malta-flagged tanker struck by Iran off the Iraqi coast have been rescued, a relative of one of the sailors told RFE/RL's Georgian Service.
Two oil tankers sailing in Iraqi territorial waters were struck in the Persian Gulf early on March 12, with sailors describing a coordinated attack involving drones and explosive devices.
Iranian state television confirmed that Iranian forces had attacked the tankers, reporting that at least one vessel was hit by an Iranian unmanned vehicle from the water.
One of the targeted ships was the Malta-flagged tanker Zefyros, which included the 23 Georgian sailors, while the second vessel that was hit, Safesea Vishnu, was sailing under a Marshall Islands flag and was chartered by an Iraqi company, according to the Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).
"I spoke with him around midnight and everything was fine," Nincho Surmanidze, the wife of Georgian sailor Irakli Jashi, told RFE/RL. "Then he called me again around 2:30 a.m. and quickly said: 'We're all OK, everyone survived.'"
Later in the morning, she said, her husband told her a drone had struck their tanker, triggering a fire that heavily damaged the vessel.
"He said everything burned," Surmanidze added.
According to Iraqi authorities, 38 sailors were rescued from the tankers targeted in the attack and were transported to an Iraqi port.
At least one sailor was killed, Iraqi officials said, though the victim's identity and nationality have not been disclosed.
Surmanidze said her husband had been working aboard the vessel for about six months and had been scheduled to return to Georgia on March 10 before the ship was delayed due to the conflict in the Middle East.
"If there had been no war in the region, he would have already been home," she said.
The attack occurred amid rising tensions across the region as Iran retaliates for ongoing US and Israeli air strikes.
Much of Tehran's campaign appears aimed at disrupting global energy markets, especially hitting targets around the Gulf, including vessels, raising security risks for commercial shipping routes that are vital to the oil and gas industries.
Some analysts say the reported use of drones, remotely detonated explosives, and unmanned vehicles in the water suggests a sophisticated maritime strike designed to damage tankers while limiting direct confrontation.
Officials at Georgia's Maritime Transport Agency and the Foreign Ministry were not available to comment when contacted by RFE/RL's Georgian Service, saying information about the incident would be released later.
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Amid Ongoing Public Absence, Is Iran's New Leader In Control?
TEL AVIV -- Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is probably in charge despite making no public appearance since being appointed on March 8 and amid reports that he was injured in an air strike, according to a leading Israeli expert on Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL in Tel Aviv on March 11, Raz Zimmt, who is head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, said the question was whether Khamenei would be capable of maintaining "daily contacts with the political and security establishment" to preserve "the ability of the regime to function."
RFE/RL: What's your assessment of where we are now in the war?
Raz Zimmt: It's very clear that both Israel and the United States have achieved very significant military achievements in their attempts to degrade as much as possible Iran's strategic capabilities.
If you look at the ballistic missiles capacities, if you look at the aerial defense system, even some of the remains of the nuclear program in Iran, and certainly the attempts to undermine or to degrade Iran's security forces, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards [Corps], the Basij, the Iranian Navy, all is going quite well.
The question is whether those achievements will allow to achieve the main objectives, which are, in my view: one, to degrade Iran's strategic capabilities to a point where it's going to be very difficult to reconstitute its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles, just as it tried to do after the 12-day war in June.
And then the second objective would be to weaken and undermine the Iranian regime.
RFE/RL: OK, let's take those one at a time, starting with the effective degradation of Iran's military and security capabilities.
Zimmt: When it comes to the missiles, during the 12-day war in June, Israel managed to destroy a lot of the launchers and then to block the entrances and the exits to the so-called underground compounds used to store them.
If that happens again, it won't make any real difference because at the end of the day Iran will be able to restore the production of its missiles -- unless the United States is capable of targeting and hitting the underground compounds and, more importantly, to hit the production lines.
Concerning the nuclear issue, if the war ends with 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to 60 percent (eds: estimates of how much Iran has vary; this figure was given by US envoy Steve Witkoff), if this fissile material still is left in Iran, it's going to be a very disturbing development because Iran can still have the technical know-how and the capability to break out [and develop nuclear weapons].
RFE/RL: Let's just look at the new leadership emerging in Iran. There's still no sign of Khamenei Jr.
Zimmt: Right. There were some reports that he was actually injured during the first hours of the attack, but he was nominated by the Assembly of Experts, so we should assume he's capable of fulfilling his task, at least.
RFE/RL: So you wouldn't read too much into the fact that we haven't seen him anywhere?
Zimmt: No, it's very obvious that the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. They know very clearly that Mojtaba Khamenei might become the next target by either Israel or the United States, and so he should hide. The question in my view is whether he's capable of reaching out and continue his daily contacts with the political and security establishment inside Iran, because that's what matters, whether he's capable of...preserving a kind of continuity in preserving the ability of the regime to function.
RFE/RL: Can the regime survive?
Zimmt: Any kind of regime change in Iran -- and we certainly hope for regime change in Iran -- depends in my view on three main conditions. One is to see millions of Iranians in the streets. because otherwise it's going to be almost impossible, in my view, to topple the Iranian regime only through aerial strikes from above.
The second condition would be to see some kind of coalition between different sections and parts of the Iranian society -- students, women, bus drivers, workers, ethnic minorities -- working together.
Last but not least, I would say one condition for a regime change in Iran is to see some cracks and divisions and perhaps defections from within the security apparatus inside Iran. And that's something which is going to be very difficult to achieve because, as we know, the Revolutionary Guards [and] the Basij are very much dependent on the Islamic republic. They know that if the regime collapsed, they might pay the consequences for that. And so they will fight until the end, in my view.
RFE/RL: So no cracks so far?
Zimmt: We might see some weakening of the command and control networks inside Iran. We might see some divisions between different sections of the military and political establishment inside Iran.
But certainly we have not seen any kind of losing control. Just yesterday I looked at information about checkpoints established by the Basij, by the law enforcement forces in Iran. We still have reports about the intelligence agencies in Iran arresting people for treason or for cooperating with Israel.
RFE/RL: If the regime does survive, what's it going to be like?
Zimmt: I'm afraid that if their regime survives, especially if it's under Mojtaba Khamenei, we might see an even more hard-line state, more committed to not just continuing the core strategic goals of Iran -- meaning its missiles, nuclear, regional ambitions -- but we might also see a regime which might take more risks in comparison to [that under] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
For example, we know that throughout the years under Khamenei, Iran was certainly moving forward toward reaching a nuclear threshold state, but Khamenei didn't make a decision to break out.
My concern is that someone like Mojtaba might take the risk of breaking out, especially after realizing that this might be the ultimate deterrence vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.
RFE/RL: If the clerical establishment does remain in control, what will this mean for relations with the Gulf states?
Zimmt: They will realize that if this regime is still intact, they will have to live with that. And President Trump is not going to be here forever. I'm not sure if they can trust the Israelis, because some of them at least consider Israel to be a destabilizing force.
Their conclusion might be: We might have to work with Israel, with the United States. To strengthen our defense systems vis-a-vis the Iranians, we should try to find a way to accommodate with Iran because Iran is here to stay, because the Islamic republic might be here to stay.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Amid Ongoing Absence, Questions Raised About Iran's New Leader
Iran has launched several waves of missiles at Israel, in one of the heaviest bombardments in recent days. But where is its new leader?
- By RFE/RL
Commercial Ships Targeted As Iran Threatens Key Gulf Energy Transit Point
Three vessels were damaged in incidents across the Persian Gulf's key maritime artery, where about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies travel, as Iran continued to launch air attacks around the Middle East.
Commercial ships sailing under the flags of Thailand, Japan, and the Marshall Islands were targeted by unknown projectiles across the Strait of Hormuz, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping security monitor, said on March 11.
While no crew members were reported dead following the attacks, UKMTO advised ships in the Strait of Hormuz to "transit with caution and report any suspicious activity," adding investigations into the incidents were ongoing.
Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had struck a Liberian-flagged vessel in the Strait Of Hormuz that it claimed was owned by Israel.
Tehran has indicated it considers the ships transferring oil to the United States, Israel, and "their partners" as "legitimate" targets.
"We won't allow even one liter of oil to reach the US, Zionists, and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target," said Iran's military command spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari on March 11.
Just off the shores of Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the shipping lane narrows to a width of less than 4 kilometers, the attacks are the latest in at least a dozen incidents since US and Israeli forces began their military campaign against Iran on February 28. Those attacks have prompted retaliatory strikes by Iran on targets in many neighboring Gulf states.
US Forces 'Eliminated' 16 Iranian Mine-Layers
The flurry of strikes on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz follows US President Donald Trump's earlier warning to Iran in which he demanded Tehran remove any mines in the area or face "military consequences" that will be at "a level never seen before."
"If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait…we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on March 10, adding that US forces would "permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait."
Later in the day, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the American military had "eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels...including 16 minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz."
In a subsequent comment, CENTCOM urged civilians "to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating," saying Tehran was using its civilian infrastructure for military purposes.
As Iran continued its retaliatory strikes aimed at its oil-exporting neighbors, disruptions of shipping in the region plunged the global energy economy into crisis, with oil prices increasing by more than 5 percent on March 11.
Zolfaqari said global trade should prepare for oil prices to rise to "$200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security which you have destabilized."
In response to these developments, President Donald Trump said the United States would tap its strategic oil reserves "a little bit" to help ease price pressures.
"Right now, we'll reduce it a little bit and that brings the prices down," he said in a TV interview. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world's largest emergency supply of oil products, established in 1975 to be access during times of energy disruptions.
The US Energy Department said the release was part of a wider release of crude by 32 countries belonging to the International Energy Agency. The IEA earlier said members unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves into the market.
"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations released a statement saying its members have agreed to explore the possibility of aiding transiting ships through the Gulf.
"In this regard, a working group has been set up to explore the possibility of escorting ships when the right security conditions are in place, and this will also come along with approaches made to shipping companies, transport companies, and insurers," said the G7, which consists of the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France.
Erdogan: War 'Must Be Stopped'
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Iran war "must be stopped before it becomes bigger and completely engulfs the region in flames."
"There will be more loss of life and property, and the cost to the global economy will increase even further," Erdogan added, as more Iranian attacks were reported across the Middle East on the 12th day of the war.
UAE's emirate of Dubai said on March 11 that two drones crashed near the city's airport, leaving four people injured -- two citizens of Ghana, one from India, and one from Bangladesh.
Iran Threatens To Target US, Israeli Banks
In a separate development on March 11, Iran announced its forces will target economic centers and banks belonging to the United States and Israel, saying the decision was taken in response to the "enemy" targeting a bank in Iran.
A spokesperson for Khatam al-Anbiya, the Iranian military's joint operational command, called the alleged attack an "illegitimate and unconventional" act in the war that had left Tehran's "hands free to target economic centers and banks belonging to" the United States and Israel "in the region."
The statement urged people in countries where US and Israeli banks are located not to remain within a 1-kilometer radius of them.
While Khatam al-Anbiya's statement did not name the bank or its location, only saying it was struck overnight, Bank Sepah -- one of Iran's largest state-owned banks -- later said one of its branches in Tehran was hit by a missile early in the day.
Separately, Iran's state television channel IRINN reported the employees working in the bank were on the extra shift to prepare March salary payments. According to the report, a "high" number of people were killed in the attack.
There was no immediate comment from the United States or Israel. Later on March 11, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced a new "wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Iranian terror regime infrastructure across Iran."
"Simultaneously, the IDF has begun striking Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut," Israel's military added in a statement published on Telegram.
With reporting by Reuters
Oil, War, And The Strait of Hormuz: Can Washington Safeguard Global Energy Markets From Iran?
WASHINGTON -- As the United States and Israel's conflict with Iran converges on the Strait of Hormuz -- the world's most critical energy chokepoint -- the economic consequences of a major disruption to oil and gas supplies could reverberate around the world.
About a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international markets. Yet tanker traffic has slowed sharply amid security concerns, military threats, and reports that Iran is deploying mines and other asymmetric measures to inflict damage on vessels attempting to use the strait.
Already the market response has been seen: Oil surged toward $120 per barrel before retreating slightly while aviation fuel prices remain around double the levels seen in January.
For analysts, these swings underscore a fundamental question: Can Tehran leverage the global energy system as a strategic weapon, or can the United States and its partners prevent that scenario?
The US military said it knocked out 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz on March 10. But Iran still appeared capable of wreaking havoc in the waterway, with three commercial vessels reportedly hit by explosions on March 11, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British naval coordination center that monitors security threats to commercial shipping.
Markets Reacting To Risk, Not Supply
So far, analysts said the market appears to be pricing in uncertainty rather than actual supply disruptions.
"What we're seeing is minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour market reactions to the scale and duration of the conflict," said Mason Hamilton, vice president for economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute.
Before the crisis, oil markets anticipated a supply glut and relatively low prices. The sudden threat to the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids move daily -- upended that outlook.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note that markets often move ahead of physical shortages.
Kevin Book, the think tank's senior analyst, said traders are preparing for the possibility that Gulf producers could be forced to halt production if exports stall.
Even modest price swings carry enormous financial consequences: a $30 per barrel shift in a market of 100 million barrels per day represents roughly $3 billion in daily value changes, excluding derivatives.
Iran's Asymmetric Leverage
For Tehran, targeting global energy flows may be among the few strategic options it has left against far more powerful adversaries like the United States.
"Iran's objective is survival," said Khalid Azim, director of the MENA Futures Lab at the Atlantic Council. "It cannot confront the US or Israel head on, so it relies on asymmetric tactics to raise the cost of conflict."
Even minor disruptions in the Strait can have outsized effects, given the concentration of global energy trade in a handful of maritime chokepoints.
Azim warned that current market reactions may underestimate the risks, noting financial markets outside energy have remained relatively calm.
"There is a lot of asymmetric risk that the market is not fully pricing," he said.
Washington's Calculus: Pressure Without A Shock
For the United States, the challenge is balancing military objectives with the imperative to prevent a global energy shock.
US President Donald Trump has said Washington is ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, although media outlets -- including Reuters -- have reported that the US Navy has so far has refused all shipping industry requests for military escorts because of the current high risk.
Meanwhile, officials from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are also talking about the potential release of emergency oil stockpiles to soften the market impact of any halt in energy flows because of the situation.
Richard Goldberg, a former Trump administration National Security Council official, said the US strategy combines market tools and military measures: insurance guarantees for shipping, encouragement of tanker movements, and naval escort operations if necessary. Carrier strike groups and missile-defense assets are already in position.
"The goal is to show Iran it cannot successfully choke off global oil flows without facing overwhelming countermeasures," Goldberg told an Atlantic Council event on March 10.
He emphasized that efforts are designed to mitigate disruption, not replace a major supply corridor indefinitely.
Even if production continues, the crisis exposes the fragility of energy logistics.
"There are two layers of risk: the infrastructure that produces barrels and the flow of those barrels," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Refineries have been shut as a precaution, storage tanks are filling, and some producers have already curtailed output as exports slow.
Shipping companies face their own dilemma: Insurance alone may not compel crews to navigate a war zone. Extended delays could force Gulf producers to shut in millions of barrels, amplifying market instability.
The Strait of Hormuz also channels roughly 20 percent of global LNG, meaning disruptions could ripple through electricity, petrochemical, and fertilizer supply chains.
Asia, as the largest Gulf oil importer, is particularly exposed. Europe, reliant on LNG and refined products, faces vulnerability at a moment of low gas reserves after winter.
Restarting facilities after shutdowns can take weeks or months. "These are complex industrial systems designed to run continuously," Hamilton noted.
The crisis is unfolding amid a broader shift in US energy strategy. With the United States now the world's largest oil and gas producer, energy supply is increasingly treated as a strategic asset, giving policymakers leverage to pursue security objectives while cushioning domestic markets.
Duration Will Decide the Stakes
The crisis's severity hinges on how long disruptions persist. A brief interruption may be absorbed, but prolonged closure, according to Washington analysts, could keep oil prices above $100 per barrel, stoke inflation, slow economic growth, or even trigger recession in vulnerable economies.
CSIS experts note that while inventories, alternative routes, and emergency reserves provide buffers, they are designed for short-term disruptions, not a protracted shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
The unfolding confrontation is a test of the global energy system's resilience. Sustained Iranian pressure could prolong instability, while effective US and allied measures could demonstrate the limits of energy coercion.
For now, the key question remains: Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open or become the epicenter of a new energy war?
- By Ray Furlong and
- Alex Raufoglu
US And Israel United In War, Divided On What Comes Next
TEL AVIV -- Driving past the gleaming skyscrapers of downtown Tel Aviv, a huge video billboard catches the eye as the advertisement switches from groceries to a giant portrait of the US president with the caption: "Thank you, God and Donald Trump!"
The tribute bears witness to Israeli gratitude for America's role in the military strikes on Iran. Israeli officials have repeatedly stressed that the two countries are in lockstep.
"The cooperation is historic between the US military and the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and between the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6 in an example of how the two countries are on the same page.
There is indeed extremely close military and political coordination. But there are also areas where priorities differ.
When Does This End?
For years, Netanyahu has pushed the idea of regime change in Iran and still appears committed to that aim.
"Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny," he said on March 9.
But most analysts believe regime change cannot be achieved quickly, so Trump's statement later that day, that the war could be over " very soon," raised the question: What if America's choice of an end date is earlier than Israel's?
"The United States is the one who leads when it comes to that end date. Israel is willing to continue these attacks against the Islamic regime. We're also engaged against Hezbollah, an Islamic regime proxy in Lebanon. We would like to continue that. But we'll stop when the US says we need to stop," Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL on March 10.
"There were very clear aims of regime change, and you're not seeing that. But let's be realistic about it. There's the rhetoric of politicians and there's the reality of the military. For the military, every additional day [means] more targets. For the politicians, they make their own decisions," added Eisin, now a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Tel Aviv.
War Aims
In fact, it is not entirely clear whether regime change is even one of the US objectives.
When US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth listed US war aims a few hours after RFE/RL spoke to Eisin, he didn't even mention it.
"One: Destroy their missile stockpiles, their missile launchers, and their defense industrial base, missiles and their ability to make them. Two: Destroy their navy. And three: Permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever," Hegseth said as he went through the goals of the conflict.
Trump has spoken of "unconditional surrender" and said regime change would be "the best thing that could happen."
He said on March 10 that he was "disappointed" that the Iranian regime chose Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his late father as supreme leader but declined to say what the United States might do about it.
RFE/RL has spoken to a number of US congressional aides focused on national security in Washington who have voiced concern about a potential disconnect on this and other issues.
"One government appears to be pursuing regime collapse," a Republican aide said on condition of anonymity. "The other says it isn't -- except when it does. And that's the rub. On key objectives, we're not entirely in sync."
In any war, the timeline usually depends on the aims being pursued. Following the three objectives listed by Hegseth, victory can be declared without regime change.
Some analysts argue the United States may prefer an earlier end to operations than Israel if oil prices rise too much because the two countries have a different pain-tolerance level in this regard.
Sarit Zehavi, head of Tel Aviv think-tank Alma, said Iran's war strategy -- and its attacks on the Gulf states -- was focused on just this.
"The interest was to create a situation that America will not finish the job. To create a situation that the Gulf countries will ask Trump to stop," she said.
Oil
There have also been some hints of divergence on military targets, with Washington reportedly unhappy at an Israeli strike on an Iranian oil facility which showered Tehran in black rain a few days ago.
Asked about this on March 10, Hegseth said hitting the oil sites "wasn't necessarily our objective."
But he rejected the idea that Israel was pulling the United States into operations that go against Washington's interests: "We're not getting pulled in any direction. We're leading, the president is leading."
On Capitol Hill, another aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, cautioned: "Destroying oil fields can spiral energy markets. Israel sees it as crippling Iran's ability to fund war, but for the US there's a risk we drag the global economy into the conflict. It's a tactical win with strategic costs."
On March 9, influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham spelled it out in a social media post. "Please be cautious about what targets you select," he wrote, adding that the oil economy would be crucial for Iran's reconstruction.
But Yoel Guzonsky, a former member of Israel's National Security Council, said his country's strikes on Iranian oil facilities had in fact been a calibrated warning shot.
"Both the US and Israel are being very careful not to hit the main oil installations with Iran because they know that Iran's retaliation might be in the Gulf states, and then we'll see a different scenario," he said, referring to the danger of future Iranian strikes on Gulf-state oil industry targets.
"Iran didn't even scratch the oil fields and the gas fields in the Gulf," he added. "Perhaps Iran is saving itself another escalatory step toward a longer war."
Hezbollah
The issue of Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization the United States, also suggests Israel and the White House have slightly different priorities in this war. For Washington, hitting Iran is top of the agenda. In Israel, Hezbollah is a threat that's much closer to home.
"People don't think about the fact that I drive up north, and I live up north, and you can be 100 meters, let alone a kilometer or two, from these different sites that Hezbollah is firing from. So, for us, that's a very near and present danger," Eisin told RFE/RL.
There have been numerous Israeli media reports and analyst predictions in recent days that a much larger ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon may be being prepared.
But, Eisin added, this was not diverting Israel's attention from the war with Iran. Eisin said Israel was mostly using different kinds of forces in Lebanon and was also attacking Iranian targets there.
"Israel openly attacked a few days ago, at the heart of Beirut, an Islamic regime Quds force…. So, you see that combo here. We're attacking the Islamic regime, different types of terror army capabilities, both in Lebanon and in Iran," she said.
But for Washington, the calculus is different. "From a US perspective, Hezbollah is a proxy problem, rather than a direct existential threat," one congressional aide said.
- By Mike Eckel
Random Numbers, Persian Code: A Mysterious Signal Transfixes Radio Sleuths -- And Intelligence Experts
The radio signal first started broadcasting on February 28, about 12 hours after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran.
On a scratchy shortwave signal almost twice a day -- in the early morning and early evening on Coordinated Universal Time -- a man's voice can be heard speaking Persian, counting out a series of apparently random numbers. The numbers are read out for varying stretches of time, followed by a pause in which the word tavajjoh -- which translates as "attention" -- is spoken three times.
The mystery of the transmission transfixed many in the global community of amateur radio sleuths, who have traded notes and tips on the signal, who's behind it, and what its purpose might be.
Five days later, it got more interesting.
Beginning on March 4, the signal started to be jammed, with a cacophonous screech of electronic noise that made it all but impossible to hear the numbers. The original transmission paused for a period of time, then moved to another shortwave frequency.
"It's interesting because it started to be jammed on the initial frequency," said Akin Fernandez, who is widely considered an authority on the decades-old encoded radio technology known as a numbers station. "Someone doesn't want the recipient [of the signal] to hear the numbers."
"It's an adversarial situation, two groups acting against one another. The question [is] who has the technical means to jam a station," Fernandez said. "The United States has the means, which means this is being transmitted by Iran. Or then it could be Iran, which means the United States is the transmission source."
"More likely this is an operation against Iran," he said.
'Absolutely Unbreakable'
Regardless of whose transmission it is and who is doing the jamming -- there are plenty of competing theories -- the mysterious broadcast is a throwback to another era, before the advent of digital encryption used widely in apps like WhatsApp and Signal and other places.
The transmission is called a numbers station, a Cold War-era tool that employs radio transmissions and old-school cryptology to transmit secret messages, usually to spies around the world.
The concept: Using a random series of a numbers, generated by some mechanical or electronic device or something more powerful, a person can send a coded message to another person in possession of a decoder, often called a "one-time pad."
Anyone can listen to the transmission; shortwave transmissions travel long distances, signals bouncing off the atmosphere. But only a person with the decoder key can decipher it. The concept got a cameo in the US spy drama The Americans, set in the 1980s.
Numbers station code is "absolutely unbreakable," said Fernandez, who more than two decades ago published a four-CD audio compendium of hundreds of recordings from around the world called the Conet Project. It's considered the Bible for numbers-station enthusiasts.
"The number keys that are used are perfectly random. There are no mathematical operations you can use on them to brute force them," he said. "And even if the answer gets out, say in proper English, it's not necessarily understandable."
"You can't tell anything about a random set of letters or numbers by their length other than their length. The length of message is not the content of the information being transmitted," he said. "But it is possible to infer the purpose of stations by the length that they're online and the noise they transmit if there is no text message."
The Persian language broadcast is the first new numbers station in years, according to Priyom, a blog run by radio enthusiasts who identified, cataloged, and analyzed the signal. The transmission was first dubbed V32 by a British-based group called Enigma2000. US-based reporter Seth Hettena also highlighted the signal in a blog post on March 4.
The group says its far-flung members have been able to triangulate the origin of the signal's transmitter: "somewhere in an area encompassing northern Italy, Switzerland, western Germany, eastern France, Belgium, and the Netherlands."
That narrowed the possibilities for the owner of the V32 transmission.
And then the jamming started.
Bubble Jammer
During the Cold War, broadcasts such as those from the BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, among others, were routinely jammed by Soviet bloc authorities who wanted to discourage citizens from getting uncensored information: news about their own countries, or, say, jazz and rock music from the West.
You drown out the incoming broadcast with dissonant noise, something known as a bubble jammer.
On March 4, according to Priyom, a bubble jammer started broadcasting noise on the same shortwave frequency as the original V32 broadcast, rendering it difficult to understand.
The V32 transmissions were interrupted briefly and then switched to another nearby frequency, Priyom said.
"At first the station was thought to be a spy station for the Iran Islamic regime, but when the bubble jammer appeared to jam it, it was an eye-opener," said Mauno Ritola, a database administrator at the Radio Data Center, a German-based radio company.
"It is exactly the same kind of bubble jammer that is used against Radio Farda, VOA Farsi, Iran International TV shortwave relay, and BBC Farsi," he said. "Even Radio Free Iran suffered from it one night."
Radio Farda is the Persian-language service for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, also known as RFE/RL.
As for the source of the transmission, the global radio community has competing theories; many appear to home in on the United States as the originator, potentially sending coded messages to agents within Iran.
Other theories focus on Israel or even Turkey, which is not a participant in the US-Israeli campaign but is a long-established regional rival to Tehran.
Or, the Priyom bloggers posited, it could be a psychological operation: "a pretty visible, single-frequency station, starting up out of nowhere for a prime-time show on the first day of the war, with relatively few reliability features to ensure recipients actually could copy messages in their entirety and without errors."
The CIA did not immediately respond to an e-mailed query from RFE/RL.
Further muddying the waters: ABC News on March 9 reported that the US government had sent an alert to law enforcement agencies regarding "intercepted encrypted communications."
The report did not specify what exactly the transmission was, or whether it was a numbers station signal.
"While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness," ABC quoted the alert as saying.
RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi contributed to this report.
White House Says Trump Will Determine When Iran Has Surrendered
US President Donald Trump will determine what constitutes "unconditional surrender" by Iran in the face of US-Israeli bombardment, the White House said on March 10, amid questions about how long the war may last.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt's comments came on what US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned would be the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran," and in the wake of a statement by Trump that the campaign would end "very soon."
"Ultimately, the operations will end when the commander-in-chief determines the military objectives have been met, fully realized, and that Iran is in [a position of] complete and unconditional surrender – whether they say it or not," Leavitt told reporters.
On March 7, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that there would be "will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"
Trump is "not claiming that the Iranian regime is going to come out and say it themselves," Leavitt said, adding that he "will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender when they no longer pose a direct and credible threat to the United States and our allies."
At a new conference and in interviews with multiple media outlets on March 9, Trump made several remarks that suggested the war could end soon. The comments eased concerns on financial markets, partially reversing a steep drop in share prices the previous day and pushing the price of oil down after a sharp rise.
Uncertainty persisted, however, and Hegseth telegraphed a day of heavy strikes on March 10. He said the objective is to destroy Iranian missiles and its military production capabilities, as well as to destroy Iran's navy.
Reports on social media described attacks early on March 10 as more intense and broader in scope than previous attacks, with explosions reported in cities including Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Zanjan, Tabriz, Arak, Shahinshahr, Bushehr, Bandar Lengeh, and Qeshm.
Daily US and Israeli air strikes against Iran began on February 28, with Tehran responding by spraying drones and ballistic missiles around the Gulf region, sparking concerns about a broader war breaking out and driving the global price of oil through the key $100 a barrel level.
At a March 10 news conference, Hegseth said Iran's retaliatory strikes are waning, and General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Pentagon was looking at a range of options if it is tasked with escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut by the conflict.
The shipping lane is a chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas transport. The war has forced oil and gas producers to halt shipping for more than a week, and Tehran has said no Gulf oil will pass through the waterway.
On March 10, Trump warned in a social media post that if Iran has placed any mines in the Strait of Hormuz "and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before."
"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," Trump said in a separate post.
Caine said the United States has carried out strikes against more than 5,000 targets in the first 10 days of the campaign, including against more than 50 naval ships.
"They're [Iranians] fighting, and I respect that, but I don't think they're more formidable than what we thought," Caine said.
At least 1,700 people -- including military members -- have died in Iran, according to the HRANA human rights group, since joint US-Israeli strikes began on February 28.
Along with the length of the campaign, another question is whether the US and Israel will take action against Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Iranian clerics chose to replace his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in strikes on the first day of the operation, as supreme leader.
Trump had called for a US say in the selection of a new leader, dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei as "unacceptable" for the role, and on March 9 called his selection "a big mistake." He did not say what the US and Israel might do about it and declined to answer when asked if the new leader had "a target on his back."
- By Ray Furlong
Sleeping On A Subway Platform To Evade Iranian Missiles In Tel Aviv
TEL AVIV -- For Aviad Apirion, a 40-year-old teacher at a special needs school, the war with Iran has meant sleeping every night at an underground railway station to avoid the danger of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.
And he's got plenty of company. The platform of the gleaming new station in a Tel Aviv suburb is crammed with mattresses -- and people of all nations.
"It's like a fairground for the kids here. For me, it's quite tricky but I prefer my children to be in a safe place, so I am with them here. I have a safe room at home, but I don't trust it since these are ballistic missiles. I don't feel safe," Apirion told RFE/RL.
Apirion has slept here with his two children, aged 7 and 9, since the first night of the war. As we speak, we're surrounded by other kids, who bombard our reporting team with questions.
"They all became friends with each other here," said Apirion, with a chuckle that belied the anxiety of wartime circumstances. The children amuse themselves by playing on the elevators, running freely around the station, or on their phones.
"You also have here people of many faiths. Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists," Apirion said.
Missile Alerts On Phones
A few steps down the platform, a group of Indian men are sat around a chess board. Some of them work in Israel's large care sector, others in construction. Sooriya Narayana Reddy told RFE/RL he arrived in this country a month ago and hopes to receive political asylum, without elaborating.
"Sleeping here, there are big spaces [for us]. We are near to our room, actually. That's why we came here," he said, his words interrupted by the blaring of another incoming missile alert on our phone apps.
Usually, this would be a sign to stop what we're doing and head for a shelter. But we're already in one, so the conversation continues. The big advantage to sleeping down here, Narayana Reddy said, is uninterrupted sleep.
"We are sleeping peacefully. We turn off our phones overnight," he said.
Under Israeli law, all modern residential buildings must come with a purpose-built shelter. But in Tel Aviv, there are many old buildings. Public shelters are available but are far less spacious and have sparse interiors, often without Internet access or cellphone signal.
By contrast, the subway network, known as Tel Aviv Light Rail, dates from 2023 and is in mint condition. All trains have been stopped since Israel launched mass air strikes on Iran on February 28 so that people can sleep at the stations.
The network was also used for this purpose during the 12-day war that Israel and the United States fought against Iran in June 2025.
But still, it's not home.
One level above the platform, a group of Moldovans are camping out in the ticket hall. A woman who identified herself only as Olessya was with her partner and her pet parrot, which hopped between her head and her shoulder.
'It's Unsettling And Scary For Everyone'
"We're not sleeping so well here. Not like at home. It's cold, a concrete [floor]; we're getting sick. We're not eating in good conditions. We're worried about what's happening outside. It's unsettling and scary for everyone," she said.
"We've slept here since February 28 because our house doesn't have a shelter, so we have to come here," she added.
Nearby, another man identifies himself simply as Yousuf. A 19-year-old refugee from Cote D'Ivoire, he said he had spent most of his life in Israel and was waiting for citizenship.
"I never sleep here. Some of my friends do," he said. "People are sleeping here because of the war. I don't know when it's going to end, but I hope it's soon."
This is a sentiment many people agree with.
"I am afraid for my loved ones," said Apirion, the special needs teacher, as we parted. "It's the same fear for all of us, for every person. We want to protect our family, our home, our friends -- people that we love."
In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 14 civilian fatalities as of March 9. Nine of these were in a single strike by an Iranian ballistic missile at Beit Shemesh, about 30 kilometers west of Jerusalem, after a direct hit on a housing block.
Drones and rockets are also being fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
- By Ray Furlong
Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid Tells RFE/RL Iran's Oil ‘Lifeline' Must Be Cut
TEL AVIV -- Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition in Israel, says air strikes on Iranian oil fields --which have showered Tehran in black rain -- were needed to cut the “lifeline of the regime” in Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL at a downtown location hit on March 8 by falling debris from an intercepted Iranian missile, Lapid also indicated that Israel reserves the right to strike any new supreme leader who takes power following the death last weekend of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“It depends who is the leader,” he said. “This is our way of protecting ourselves from death and destruction. Because, you know, this is what this regime is.”
Lapid, who was Israel's prime minister for several months in 2022 before Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office, has strongly backed the Israeli government’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran on February 28, which included those that killed Khamenei.
The body in charge of selecting Iran's new supreme leader said on March 8 it had reached a decision on a new leader, but did not immediately reveal the name of the choice.
US President Donald Trump said earlier on March 8 that any new supreme leader "is not going to last long" without White House approval.
Lapid's support comes despite the bitter battles he has fought against Netanyahu on domestic policies and the Gaza Strip.
“I can't remember a time when we stood that united and that determined,” he said, praising the “spirit of the Israeli people.”
RFE/RL has approached Netanyahu’s Likud party for comment. In recent days, Likud lawmakers and ministers have rarely given media interviews.
Netanyahu's Televised Address
In a televised addressed on March 7, Netanyahu said Israel had an "organized plan with many surprises" in store. Netanyahu told Israelis the campaign would "destabilize the regime" and that "the moment of truth is drawing near."
In his role of official opposition leader, Lapid gets security briefings directly from Netanyahu.
Asked whether Netanyahu’s remarks meant that regime-change was imminent in Iran, Lapid said “I find it hard to believe that there is a real possibility for regime change with airstrikes."
"I think ‘boots-on-the-ground’ is not inevitable, but maybe it's not the greatest idea. What we are doing now is creating the conditions or enabling the people of Iran to change their own fate,” the 62-year-old added.
A part of this, he said, were strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Israel made what appeared to be its first attack on oil facilities on March 7. The next morning, dark, polluted clouds clogged the sky and black rain fell on Tehran.
“This is where the money is coming from. They spent the last...40 years building nuclear sites instead of building an economy for themselves. So, what they have is those oil sites. So, eliminating them will help cutting the lifeline of the regime,” Lapid said.
'Heartbreaking' Civilian Deaths In Iran
The current US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have decapitated the country’s clerical leadership and substantially weakened its military.
They have also caused civilian casualties.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says more than 1,200 civilians have been killed, including nearly 200 children. In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 12 civilian fatalities.
Asked about the toll on civilians, Lapid pointed to the damaged building behind him.
“Look around you. Where are we? This is not a military site, right? So. the Iranians are intentionally trying to kill civilians,” he said.
“Sometimes bystanders and the innocent are killed, especially when it's children. It's heartbreaking. Children should not die in grown-ups' wars. Yet it's a mistake. Here, they are doing it intentionally.”
- By Kian Sharifi
Wladimir Van Wilgenburg: Kurdish Groups Need US 'Guarantees' Before Iran Offensive
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, with the aim of fomenting an uprising inside the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to the exiled groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in western Iran comes amid a joint US-Israeli aerial campaign against Tehran, launched on February 28.
US President Donald Trump on March 5 encouraged the over half a dozen exiled Iranian Kurdish groups to attack Iran. "I think it's wonderful that they want to do that. I'd be all for it," he said.
Tehran has responded by intensifying attacks on camps and bases operated by the Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
Trump appeared to walk back his comments on March 8, telling reporters that he does "not want the Kurds to go into Iran" because the war is "complicated enough as it is."
RFE/RL spoke to Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an on-the-ground reporter and analyst specializing in Kurdish affairs who said the Iranian Kurdish groups are deeply cautious about becoming entangled in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
RFE/RL: What considerations do you think these Kurdish groups are weighing before launching their offensive into Iran?
Wladimir van Wilgenburg: These Kurdish groups will not launch an offensive if they don't have any guarantees for any form of political recognition. We saw with the Kurds in Syria that the US didn't give any promises. After there was no more need for them to fight ISIS [the Islamic State extremist group], they were abandoned, and the US administration worked with the new authorities in Damascus.
The Kurds in Iran don't want a repetition of that scenario where they basically fight the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] and, when the war is over, the US administration says it was just a transactional relationship and 'bye-bye.'
RFE/RL: Do you think there is going to be an incursion?
Van Wilgenburg: There has been no incursion. The gist [of it] is that the Kurdish groups are preparing for such an offensive and have had some talks with US officials. I don't know on what level, whether government or military, but they're just in an exploration phase of relations.
I don't think there have been any decisions so far to go inside [Iran]. We also saw statements by Iraqi Kurdish officials saying they don't want to be part of this regional war [and are] calling for calm. Today, there was a statement by a senior defense official in Iran threatening Iraqi Kurdistan, saying if any of those groups cross, the retaliation will be very heavy.
RFE/RL: If they do eventually launch an offensive, what is the ultimate goal? Is it regime change, or a push for an independent Kurdistan?
Van Wilgenburg: The Kurds in Iran have always had a historical focus on autonomy. They are not focused on an independent Kurdish state. What they want is a federal Iran with democracy, secularism, and autonomy for Iranian Kurds.
There's no goal to separate. Their idea is to go only to the Kurdish areas -- not like in Syria, where Kurdish forces went to non-Kurdish areas like Deir al-Zor and Raqqa. The idea is to create a sort of safe haven for the Iranian opposition.
Currently, there are calls for defections [from the state] and protests [against the authorities], but there's no safe haven for the opposition to go to. It would be similar to how the Iraqi Kurdish opposition was hosted in [Iran's] Kurdistan Province in the 1990s.
RFE/RL: Regarding Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), if Iranian Kurds decide to launch an incursion, would the KRG have the power or the desire to stop them?
Van Wilgenburg: Most of the bases for these Iranian Kurdish parties are in [the regional capital] Erbil and Sulaymaniyah Province, so they are quite dependent on the KRG's tolerance. One reason they are tolerated is the understanding that they would not carry out armed action.
There was also an agreement between Baghdad and Tehran in 2023 to disarm these parties, which is why some camps are currently empty. However, you have groups who are not dependent on the KRG because they control their own areas in the mountains. The other parties are very close to urban areas in the Kurdistan region and are more restricted.
RFE/RL: Were those groups actually disarmed as part of that 2023 agreement?
Van Wilgenburg: There were a lot of conflicting media reports about that in the Kurdish media, but there has been no official confirmation.
RFE/RL: Given the history, how wary are these groups of working with the United States as a partner?
Van Wilgenburg: They are worried it could be a transactional relationship, so they prefer guarantees. They have their own issues with the Islamic republic, but they aren't going to risk a fight if they would lose everything.
History shows this: The Mahabad Republic [a short-lived and unrecognized Kurdish state] collapsed after Soviet support ended, and after the 1979 revolution, [Islamic republic founder Ruhollah] Khomeini launched a military operation against the Kurds after they had taken control of their areas.
They fear a new centralist government in Tehran might do the same. They want guarantees that it will be a federal state, similar to the relationship between the Kurdistan region and the central government in Baghdad.
RFE/RL: Do the Kurds currently have the weaponry to cause significant trouble for the Islamic republic?
Van Wilgenburg: Their numbers are not that large, but the situation can change quickly. In Syria, the Kurdish groups started small and grew into the SDF [Syrian Defense Forces], which is over 100,000-strong. If they go inside and get US air support and weapons, it would be very easy to crush [Iran's] defenses in Kurdish-majority areas.
Most IRGC and Basij [paramilitary] soldiers there are not native to the area. If Iran doesn't control the airspace, it will be very difficult for them to hold those areas, even with their advanced drones and ballistic missiles. Kurdish officials say they could take these areas in a very short period if there is a US decision to support them.
RFE/RL: Is there any truth to reports that the United States or Israel are already arming these groups?
Van Wilgenburg: There is a lot of speculation based on anonymous sources. On the ground, you don't see any new weapons. The fighters still have their old Kalashnikovs. There are no physical or public signs yet. But logically, if there is a decision to support them, they will be armed.
The US did that with the Iraqi opposition, the Kurds in Syria, and via CIA programs for other rebels. Such programs could be repeated, but there are no signs of those arms in the hands of Iranian Kurds yet.
- By Ray Furlong
Iranian Jews In Israel Speak Of Pain And Hope Amid Conflict
TEL AVIV -- Bijan Bahordari has two flags in the window of his fast-food restaurant: the blue-and-white Israeli Star of David and that of pre-revolutionary Iran, the green-white-red tricolor with a golden lion and sun in the center.
After ladling stuffed peppers, rice, and a rich red sauce into a takeaway container for a customer, he stopped to talk about what it's like to witness his adopted homeland at war with the land of his birth.
"I wish and I hope that they finish the regime now. And I am waiting to go back there. Seventeen years, I lived there. And I remember everything," he told RFE/RL. "In the morning, I check my phone, the radio, the TV -- it doesn't matter what."
Bahordari left Iran as a teenager to go traveling in 1978. While he was away, the Shah of Iran was toppled and the Islamic republic was established. Bahordari has never returned.
He's now married in Israel, has children, and for 10 years has been running the New Food Of Life cafe at Levinsky Market, an area dotted with Persian businesses.
There are an estimated 250,000 Iranian Jews in Israel, defined as Jews born in Iran plus second and third generations. Bahordari is slightly unusual, since he moved here before the Islamic Revolution. Most others came afterward.
One such Iranian is the owner of a shop selling nuts and dried fruit a few steps from Bahordari's business. Identifying himself simply as Meir, he said he had come to Israel in 1979. The current war, he said, left him with mixed feelings -- but also hope.
"It's very strange. Everything is strange. We attack each other. But it is for a good cause. The Iranian people are suffering. Their government is evil, very bad for all the world -- not just for Iran," he said, switching from English to Hebrew to make his point clearly.
But while he is hopeful about the future, he also acknowledged the dangers of the current situation -- not only that there are civilian casualties in Iran, but also that regime change could have unpredictable and potentially violent consequences of its own.
"I would be very disappointed and sad if it turns out like that. Not just me, a lot of people all over the world. We are strongly connected via social networks. We're all praying. We all applaud," he said.
Listing a roll-call of countries where the Iranian diaspora is scattered, he said that earlier "they were afraid to speak out. But now, they feel confident. We are expecting the regime to fall."
Iran still has a Jewish population. Estimates of its size vary from a few thousand people to somewhere in the 10,000 to 20,000 range. This population was much higher prior to 1979.
Many Jews fled in the aftermath of the revolution as the new authorities adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist. The 1979 execution of Habib Elghanian, a prominent figure in the Tehran Jewish community, helped further prompt an exodus to Israel and other countries, particularly the United States.
Part of that exodus was Nicola, who was 9 years old when her family left Iran in 1979. Now a holistic therapist in Jerusalem, she recalled being told at 10 o'clock one night that she would be leaving the next morning. She said she was allowed to take three items.
Nicola chose not to give her surname because of concerns for the safety of her mother, now aged 77, who chose to stay in Iran and is still there now.
"One eye is crying and the other eye is happy," she said, about the current situation.
"I'm praying that after 47 years the regime will fall…. I'm crying because I know the price that people in Iran are paying," she added.
Back at Bahordari's Tel Aviv cafe, he pointed to a wall of photos showing famous guests including Israeli actors and singers. The wall also features portraits of the late shah and his wife.
With tears welling in his eyes, Bahordari revealed his dream.
"I will make another restaurant -- very big -- in Iran. And I'll put the flags of Israel, the United States, and Iran, and [a picture of] the shah, together. It's going to be very, very special," he said.