Middle East
- By Ray Furlong
In Bunkers And On Streets, Israelis Celebrate Purim Amid Repeated Missile Strikes
JERUSALEM -- Crowds of civilians in costumes were literally dancing in the streets as they marked the Purim holiday here when air-raid sirens rang out. Immediately, people streamed toward the shelters -- some clutching babies, others drinks.
On this occasion, the shelter was a nearby underground parking lot where revelers continued the party, spinning around with arms linked and singing vigorously. One man was attached to an inflatable horse. A child was dressed as a chick, a parent as a penguin.
It was a jarring moment where a high-spirited party collided with war.
"It's definitely scary but I think that we know we're going to be OK. It's happened before," said Rebecca, a 20-something American woman with a 1-year-old child in her arms who moved to Israel three years ago.
"This is part of living in Israel. You know, you got to just take the punches," she told RFE/RL.
Her husband, Daniel, said the incoming Iranian ballistic missile attack was "symbolic" given that Purim marks a failed attempt to wipe out Jews during the Persian Empire.
"We have rockets raining down on us. It's very comforting to know that God is on our side and that history repeats itself, and we're going to be redeemed again," he said.
Israel marked day five of its conflict with Iran with intermittent alarms but no reported injuries or fatalities. During an earlier attack, sheltering in a different bunker, low thuds and booms were heard as air defense intercepted missiles.
On each occasion, it was not long before people's phones buzzed with all-clear messages on their warning apps. The party in the parking lot simply moved back upstairs and into the late afternoon sunshine.
Within minutes, the streets were again filled with hooting car horns and inebriated cries of greeting. There was a heady mix of alcohol, adrenaline, relief, and defiance.
"The war is a little bit crazy. With the war and everything, we're just trying to celebrate and we're being bombed -- we've got to run into the shelters every couple of minutes," Jerusalem resident Shimon Barenen told RFE/RL.
"We're just trying to keep up the spirit," he added.
Later, at a roadside Lebanese restaurant on the road toward Tel Aviv, there was a more sober mood as around 20 people crammed into a tiny bunker. A woman cried softly, her husband cradling her in his arms. A family of American tourists worried how they would get out of Israel and home to California. Again, there was the thud of missiles being intercepted overhead.
The mood only lightened when an Indian TV journalist backed into the room, speaking excitedly into a phone on a selfie stick, drawing groans and laughs in equal measure.
On this occasion, the remains of the Iranian missile were nearby. Emergency services fought their way past early evening traffic heading to and from Purim celebrations, with police officers frantically gesturing to drivers to clear a path. A roadblock to stop people driving in the direction of the crash site snarled the traffic further.
Once again, this incident passed off without any injuries or deaths. Israel's air defense are largely holding firm so far against missiles from Iran and rockets and drones fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
Israel's wars with its regional neighbors have usually been characterized by asymmetrical levels of casualties, offensive capacity, and air defenses -- in Israel's favor.
This time is no exception. As of March 4, the country had suffered 12 civilian fatalities, mostly in a single strike at Beit Shemesh that was a direct hit on a housing block.
The HRANA human rights group, which monitors events in Iran, says that more than 1,000 Iranian civilians have been killed in the Israeli and US air campaign that began on February 28.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 4 that US and Israeli air forces had now achieved close to "uncontested" control of Iranian air space.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said any new leader appointed in Iran to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader after his death in an air strike on February 28, the first day of the campaign, "would be an unequivocal target for elimination."
The military balance is clearly in favor of Israel and the United States. Yet Iran retains, for now, the ability to hit back.
As night fell on March 4, there were yet more sirens. Israelis have lived through this for years, especially during the war in Gaza with Hamas -- also regarded by the United States and Israel as a terrorist group.
But, said a 37-year-old engineer who gave her name only as Anna, "we are not used to it." Anna told RFE/RL she doesn't have a shelter in her building, so she comes to a building across the street to seek safety.
When it was Hamas attacking, she said, she stopped bothering. But Iran, she said, is a much greater threat. "It's really scary."
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- By RFE/RL,
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- Current Time
Israeli Purim Celebrations Defy Iranian Missiles
Israelis were celebrating Purim with singing, dancing, and costume parties on March 4. When the festivities in Jerusalem were interrupted by an air-raid alert, people headed for the shelters and kept partying there -- determined to maintain normal life amid war.
US Confirms Sinking Iranian Ship, Says Tehran Firing Fewer Missiles
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed a US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka as military officials said Iran is firing fewer missiles at targets around the Gulf region due to its decimated capabilities to wage war.
Speaking at a briefing on March 4, Hegseth called the attack -- which left at least 87 seamen dead with dozens of others injured or missing -- "quiet death." Sri Lankan authorities said 32 Iranian sailors were rescued.
"An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters. Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo," Hegseth said.
Hegseth said the United States has the resources to continue the campaign, which started on February 28 in tandem with strikes by Israel, indefinitely if needed, saying Washington would take "all the time we need" to secure victory.
In response, Iran has launched missile and drone barrages at states around the Persian Gulf that have fanned fears the war could spread throughout the region.
Highlighting those fears, a ballistic missile launched from Iran headed toward Turkish airspace before being intercepted by NATO air defense systems.
The military alliance, to which Turkey is a member, condemned the incident, saying it "stands firmly with all Allies."
At the same briefing as Hegseth, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran was launching some 86 percent fewer ballistic missiles than it did on February 28, the first day of the conflict. Drone launches were down almost as much, he added.
"We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense," Caine said.
Hegseth echoed those comments, adding that coalition forces expect to gain complete control of Iranian airspace within about a week, which would allow expanded bombing operations across the country.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign.
She told RFE/RL in an interview in Warsaw on March 4 that "Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them."
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives," Kallas said.
Kallas Says Iranian Capacity To Target Gulf States 'Unsustainable'
WARSAW -- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says she doubts Iran's capacity to sustain its pace of attacks on countries across the Middle East given its decimated military following the 12-day war last year with Israel and the current US-Israeli campaign launched against it over the weekend.
"We have to understand that the Iranian capacities are not endless, especially if also the big friends are not supporting them," she told RFE/RL in an interview conducted in Warsaw on March 4.
"Americans have also said that their target is the missile launchers and missile factories, then their capacity to cause harm is also and maybe more limited than they want to show. So this is always also a fight for narratives."
Expanding on the answer about Tehran's allies, the former Estonian prime minister was quick to point out that Russia, which has long been seen as a key ally of Tehran, hasn't rushed to aid the Islamic regime.
"What we have to see is that when Iran is fighting, they are fighting alone with their proxies. Russia is not supporting them," Kallas added.
US President Donald Trump said on March 3 that Iran "is going to be in for a lot of hurt" in the coming days, adding that "the big-scale hitting goes now."
Operation Epic Fury, as the mission is called by US military officials, represents the largest US buildup in the Middle East in a generation with over 50,000 US troops and 200 fighter aircraft. According to the US military, 17 Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed and nearly 2,000 targets across Iran hit in the last four days alone.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has estimated that nearly 1,100 Iranian civilians, including 181 children, have been killed in the air strikes.
In response, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at US military bases and key commercial sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar -- all American allies -- since the conflict broke out.
The European Union, meanwhile, has struggled to keep a unified position on the war. The E3 -- France, Germany, and the United Kingdom -- have indicated they might assist the United States militarily if necessary, while Spain has questioned the legality of the strikes on Iran.
When asked about what outcome the EU sees after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the air strikes, the EU top diplomat was cautiously optimistic that things eventually could improve for the country.
"Now the question is, of course, what comes next? Is it possible that there's going to be a democratic Iran? I mean, not necessarily immediately, but still there's opportunities for the people if the repressive regime is weakened," she said.
With the EU's foreign ministers set for an online meeting with their counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council on March 5, Brussels is likely to have to grapple with more immediate challenges to the bloc such as already soaring energy prices and potential waves of refugees.
"There are threats to disruption of supply chains and trade routes, there are also risks for migration pressure that is coming toward us because people will want to flee war. These are all the risks that we have to really take into account," Kallas said.
- By Frud Bezhan
A New Front In Iran War? US Considers Arming Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, in a move that could open a new front in the war on Iran and risks igniting a civil war in the Middle East country.
Several Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years. Some have demanded autonomy within Iran while others are fighting for secession from the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdish groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in the western part of the country comes as the United States and Israel wage a massive aerial bombardment of Iran.
The US aim, experts say, would be to stretch Tehran's military resources, weaken the state's grip on power, and foment an uprising inside Iran, a multiethnic country of some 90 million people.
Iran's clerical rulers, despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military leaders, have not capitulated or fragmented and maintain control of the country since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28.
"The main goal is to make sure the Islamic republic starts losing control of some areas of the country," said Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel.
"The assessment may be that by doing so, other minorities as well as the broader opposition may be inspired. Some elements within the regime who may be tempted to defect or flee may also see this as a sign that they should do so now, before the situation spins fully out of control."
Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran's population and primarily live in the country's west along the border with Iraq. Iran has long been accused of suppressing and discriminating against the country's ethnic minorities, including Kurds.
Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said possible ground incursions by Iranian Kurdish groups into western Iran could stretch Tehran's military resources.
"If the Kurdish factions were to stage a concerted series of attacks, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] would have to seek reinforcements," said Bruchmann, referring to the elite branch of Iran's armed forces.
"However, that would weaken their posture in core cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, or Karaj. It would thus create a dilemma for the regime where to send sparse reinforcements in times when coordination is also more difficult. It is this dilemma and thinning out of forces that is the operational goal."
The risks of the United States possibly arming Iranian opposition Kurds groups are considerable, experts say.
"Washington could trigger a civil war and the fragmentation of the country, which could have lasting consequences," said Horowitz.
Many of these groups were previously armed but have since laid down their weapons.
"If they engage in a long-term war against Iran, and the US support disappears, this will prove very dangerous for them," said Horowitz.
The United States recently cut support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that was a key US partner for years in the war against the Islamic State extremist group.
Longstanding Disputes
In anticipation of a US attack on Iran, five Iranian opposition Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan announced a new political coalition last month aimed at overthrowing the Islamic republic and ultimately achieving Kurdish autonomy.
The new coalition includes the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat), and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan. The coalition does not include several Kurdish political heavyweights such as the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan.
Iran has sporadically conducted military strikes against the exiled Kurdish groups, which Tehran has designated as terrorist organizations and accused them of serving American and Israeli interests. Those attacks could intensify if the United States arms the groups.
On March 4, Iran launched rocket attacks at a camp near the border operated by the PAK, the group said, adding that one person was killed and three wounded. A day earlier, drone strikes struck a base run by the PDKI in northern Iraq.
Experts say it is unclear if the various Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq can settle their deep differences and have the willingness and ability to fight against the Islamic republic.
"There are longstanding disputes, and they need to prove solidarity on the field," said Bruchmann. "It is less about the potential impact of some better or more weapons from the US, but rather the will to fight the Iranian regime decisively and coordinate military attacks among them that will decide whether the Kurds will add a ground element to the US-Israeli air campaign."
- By Frud Bezhan
Iran War Descends Into Regional Conflict With Global Spillovers
In just a few days, the United States and Israel's massive bombardment of Iran has sprawled into a regional war that has dragged in key America allies in the Middle East and sent global energy prices soaring.
Iran has responded to the joint US and Israeli campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, by unleashing unprecedented barrages of missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
Fighting an existential threat, experts say, Tehran is aiming to raise the economic, political, and military pain of the conflict for the United States and secure an end to hostilities.
"Tehran appears to be wagering on [US President] Donald Trump's reluctance to become entangled in messy and costly wars, seeking to demonstrate that it possesses the capability to prolong the conflict and make it increasingly complex and expensive," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Incurring Direct Costs On US
Iran is imposing direct costs on the United States, which has so far lost six service members in the war.
Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have hit at least six of the estimated 19 US military facilities across the Middle East that house around 40,000 American troops. That includes sites in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Tehran has also targeted US diplomatic facilities in the region. The US Embassy in Riyadh was struck by two suspected Iranian drones on March 3, causing a fire. A fire was also reported near the US Embassy in Kuwait on March 2 following Iranian drone attacks.
Global Energy Rattled
Iran is also pressuring the United States by targeting Washington's Arab partners. Iranian attacks on the Gulf states have not been limited to US military installations. Major airports, luxury hotels, and key energy facilities have also been struck.
Iranian drones targeted a power plant and energy facility in Qatar on March 2, leading one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas to stop production. A key oil refinery in Saudi Arabia was partially shut down after Iranian drones targeted the facility.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, and vessels have rerouted since the start of the war. About a fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
The combination of attacks on key energy facilities and disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf, a region that produces around 40 percent of the world's oil, has sent the prices of oil and natural gas soaring and raised fears over global supplies.
New War Front
Iran's key nonstate ally, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, opened a second front in the war when it launched rocket and drone attacks on Israel on March 2. Israel has retaliated with air strikes that have killed scores of people and sent in additional forces into southern Lebanon on March 3.
Other members of Iran's so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran's regional network of armed proxies and partners -- have pledged to join the war, including Yemen's Huthi rebels and pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq.
The Huthi rebels have threatened to withdraw from a cease-fire deal reached with the United States last year. The armed group agreed to halt their missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. In exchange, the United States pledged to stop air strikes targeting the group.
"The potential entry -- or deeper engagement -- of Hezbollah and possibly the Huthis would significantly expand escalation boundaries," said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University on March 2.
"Such involvement would both increase pressure for de-escalation internationally and raise the economic and security costs for Israel and Gulf states. This aligns with Tehran's longstanding doctrine of expanding the geographic scope of confrontation in order to dilute direct pressure on the Iranian homeland."
Kian Sharifi contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL
Explosions Seen In Multiple Middle East Cities As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran
Smoke rises from an explosion in Tehran.
Images captured on February 28 show blasts in Iran, Israel, and several other Middle Eastern countries as US President Donald Trump says "major combat operations" are underway against Iran.
- By RFE/RL
Middle East On Edge As Trump Launches 'Major Combat Operation' Against Iran
US President Donald Trump said Washington had begun “major combat operations” against Iran, putting the Middle East on edge as air raid sirens wailed across the region amid retaliatory strikes by Tehran.
In a video statement posted on social media, Trump said on February 28 his objective in ordering the bombing of Iran -- which was done in concert with Israeli forces -- was “to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
"I do not make this statement lightly. The Iranian regime seeks to kill," Trump said in the video announcing the operation, named "Epic Fury" by the Pentagon.
"The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties that often happens in war, but we're doing this, not for now. We're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission."
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) responded to the US and Israeli strikes by launching several waves of drones and ballistic missiles against Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said interception operations were underway and later reported further waves of missiles were headed toward Israel.
Iran also fired missiles at targets in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Bahrain. State media in the United Arab Emirates said one person had been killed in Abu Dhabi, but gave no details.
Iranian media reported explosions in several cities, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Qom, Lorestan, and Chabahar.
Video and photo images showed at least one large plume of smoke billowing over the capital.
Trump accused Tehran of attempting to rebuild its nuclear program after the United States bombed key facilities during a 12-day war between Iran and Israel last June. He said the United States also aimed to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and “annihilate” its navy.
“The hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump added, in an apparent message to the Iranian public.
Trump had previously vowed that “help is on the way” during the deadly January protests against Iran’s clerical establishment, in which thousands were reported killed. Tehran suppressed the unrest and accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating it.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump continues to "closely monitor" the situation along with his national security team and had spoken during the day to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone.
The strikes mark a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions and all but quash hopes for a diplomatic resolution between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s nuclear program.
US and Iranian officials held a fresh round of Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26 in what was seen as a last-ditch attempt to avoid a major military conflict between the foes.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has a history of mediating talks between two, said he saw "significant progress" and announced that technical level discussions will take place next week in Vienna.
He said he was "dismayed" by the strikes against Iran and that they "undermined" the peace process.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting following the attacks. The UN said the session, scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. New York time, will address the “situation in the Middle East.”
"If we consider the experience of several years of negotiations, including the most recent round, it has shown that the Islamic republic will not retreat from its positions. This stance, in practice, causes other countries to feel threatened. Specifically, the Islamic republic’s missile program can pose significant risks," Leyla Morovati, a political analyst with expertise in Iranian domestic and foreign affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"Ultimately, some of these nations may feel compelled to align with these attacks -- even if not directly -- to see the Islamic republic severely weakened and its missile program dismantled or restricted. In other words, they will be moving in alignment with US and Israeli interests.”
Explosions were first reported in central Tehran, with images and videos circulating on social media showing thick plumes of smoke rising above the capital.
The Fars news agency, affiliated with the IRGC, said “several missiles” struck Daneshgah (University) and Jomhuri (Republic) streets. Iran’s state broadcaster, IRINN, confirmed what it described as joint “US-Israeli aggression in Tehran,” airing social media footage of smoke billowing from downtown areas.
Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammed Pakpur are thought to have died in Israeli attacks, two sources familiar with Israel's military operations and one regional source said, according to Reuters.
Sirens sounded across Israel following the strike, and the IDF instructed residents to remain near protected areas, describing the alert as a precaution against possible retaliatory missile fire.
Trump warned that some Americans "may be lost" as a result of the operation, though senior US officials told reporters that so far there have been no reported US casualties from Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, UAE, and Qatar.
He also urged Iranians to rise up against the Islamic republic's leadership once the military action has concluded.
"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations," Trump said.
Jennifer Gavito, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iran, Iraq, and Public Diplomacy, told RFE/RL that Iran’s initial response to what seems to be an explicit call for regime change from the US and Israel "demonstrates that the regime believes this is an existential crisis and that it has nothing to lose."
"Given that, its reactions we are already seeing will be less predictable, more escalatory, and more likely to spark region-wide instability,” she said.
Kazakh, Uzbek Leaders Seek Trump Approval With Gaza Peace Pledges
The decision by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to join US allies in the Arab world in providing cash and other help -- possibly including troops -- for the reconstruction of Gaza marks another moment in efforts to forge a new, close relationship with US President Donald Trump.
The move follows last November's 5+1 meeting in Washington, in which the Central Asian nations agreed trade, diplomatic, and mineral deals to strengthen ties.
At the inaugural Board of Peace summit on February 19, Kazakhstan promised substantial funding to be administered through the World Bank’s Gaza Reconstruction and Development Fund.
It also said it would deploy troops to an International Stabilization Force (ISF), including security personnel and a field hospital staffed by military medical experts. By doing so, Kazakhstan joins a small group of countries such as Indonesia, Kosovo, and Albania, that have publicly promised peacekeepers.
For its part, Uzbekistan emphasized previously announced plans to redevelop a specific slice of territory in Gaza.
Former Kazakh diplomat Dulat Baqyshev told RFE/RL that both nations were investing in the relationship with Washington -- and aiming for a concrete return on their money.
“Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan need US support. It’s been 35 years since our independence. Had any US president visited our region? No," he said.
Since achieving independence in 1991, the countries of Central Asia have sought to balance out diplomatic and economic influence from China and Russia.
"Our independence, our sovereignty becomes stronger when it’s supported by the US," Baqyshev said.
Kazakhstan Brings 'Boots And Brains'
For now, the pledges made in Washington remain just that -- promises that may, or may not, be delivered on later.
But Astana would bring prior experience from United Nations–mandated peacekeeping operations since 2014, including deployments under the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), giving it an established track record in multinational stabilization efforts.
Kazakhstan also pledged wheat supplies to stabilize food security in Gaza and 500 university scholarships for Palestinian students over the next five years, aiming to rebuild Gaza’s professional class.
Still, no specific financial contribution or details on the number of Kazakh soldiers have been published yet, leaving some uncertainty about the scale of commitments.
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev presented plans for an “Uzbekistan Quarter” in Gaza, with housing, schools, kindergartens, health-care facilities, and community centers.
The plans sit alongside other Gaza reconstruction plans pushed by Washington, which present the war-ravaged region as a luxury holiday riviera. Uzbekistan says its plans draw on experience it has gained rebuilding earthquake‑affected areas in Turkey.
No specific financial amount or the financial sources for this project have been made public.
Great Expectations
While the actual sums were not made clear, Trump signaled that he expected significant financial commitments from participating countries.
Both the Uzbek and Kazakh leaders echoed the US president's positive tone.
Mirziyoyev described Trump’s plan as “bold and historic,” while Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev emphasized that “working together on this initiative is a step toward a safer, more stable region.”
Toqaev also called for a peace prize to be created, named for Trump.
“For Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this is about prestige and reputation, and also about closer relations with the United States," Uzbek political analyst Alisher Ilkhamov told RFE/RL.
“Trump expects them to be willing to pay for this opportunity, and they seem prepared to do so,” he added.
Ilkhamov suggested that Kazakhstan might also have an immediate, specific aim: U.S. pressure on Ukraine to stop attacks on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, a key conduit for Kazakh oil exports.
Strikes in recent months have had a major impact on an important source of Kazakh budget revenue.
“It is no coincidence that Toqaev has gone out of his way to flatter Trump for the second time,” he said.
- By Amos Chapple
Azadi Tower: Architect Watches From Exile As Beloved Iranian Landmark Coopted By Regime
When images from the 47th anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution were published around the world on February 11, Hossein Amanat's heart sank. The imposing backdrop to the missiles and drones paraded at the Tehran event was the Azadi Tower, which the Iranian-born architect designed more than half a century ago.
"I feel so sorry," Amanat said of his most beloved work being coopted by the same government that once put him on a death list. "They are so unjust that they use anything to give themselves legitimacy."
Amanat was 24 years old when he won a 1966 contest to design a monumental gateway to Tehran. Originally named the Shahyad (Shah's Memorial) Tower, the 45-meter landmark was to be completed in time for the grand celebrations planned by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to mark the 2,500th year of the Persian Empire.
Today the monument is widely regarded as the most iconic example of modern architecture in Iran, serving as visual shorthand for Tehran comparable to the Eiffel Tower in Paris. But Amanat says he had no sense of the structure's significance until he saw the finished project with his own eyes in 1971.
"I was working with a friend of mine in the basement [of the tower]," the 83-year-old recalled. "Somebody came and said: 'The scaffolds are off. Do you want to have a look?'"
Walking beneath the monument, Amanat told RFE/RL by phone, "I had goosebumps all over my body…. Usually I know what I'm designing, but going under that arch and looking up, it really overwhelmed me." The outcome, he said, had exceeded his own vision.
When the shah held a ceremony to open the monument in October 1971, its young architect stood and watched far from the assembled foreign dignitaries, which included the younger brother of Japan's Emperor Hirohito and Imelda Marcos, the first lady of the Philippines.
To Amanat's surprise, he was spotted by the Iranian ruler. "When he approached me he turned to all the kings that were there, especially [the Emperor of Ethiopia] Haile Selassie," Amanat recalled, "and he said, 'This young man has built this building,' and he was full of pride."
After Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979, statues to the shah were torn down throughout the country and a massive demolition effort wiped out a mausoleum to his father. The Shahyad Tower seemed an obvious target for similar treatment, yet it survived and was renamed the Azadi (Freedom) Tower.
Amanat believes there are two reasons the tower was not demolished, despite some in the new regime wanting it gone.
"I think because of the attention to this building, they couldn't [act] against the wish of the people," he said. Additionally, Amanat pointed out that the marble and concrete structure would be "difficult to tear down -- you would have to use a lot of munitions."
Amanat himself was outside Iran when the 1979 revolution swept the country, and he settled in Canada in 1980. He now heads a successful architecture firm in Vancouver designing buildings around the world. But he has kept an eye on the treatment of his tower.
"They have damaged a lot out of lack of knowledge," he said. That damage has included work crews inexplicably tearing up some of the paving stones at the base of the arch. Waterproofing material beneath the stones was destroyed, leading to rainwater trickling into the museum beneath the tower.
Ironically, the monument bearing the name freedom today bristles with cameras. "If they want to put a cable, mostly [for] security cameras for their own spying on people, they drive screws and bolts into the exposed concrete there, which has been poured with great attention," Amanat said.
The architect said the aesthetic of the Azadi Tower was drawn partially from exploring ancient Persian architecture, including the Vakil Mosque in Shiraz.
Gathering inspiration from his own country's heritage was relatively rare in the 1960s, when young Iranian creatives largely looked to the West for inspiration. The tower, Amanat says, "is somehow kind of giving an idea that it is connected to the very deep past, yes. But it is thinking of going forward because of its shape elevating to heaven."
The Azadi Tower was one of the key gathering points for the 2009 protests that swept Iran following a disputed presidential election in June of that year.
Today, the same regime that prompted Amanat -- a member of the persecuted Baha'i faith -- to live in exile after the 1979 revolution still casts a shadow over his work. He is currently working on a shrine to the son of the founder of the religion in Acre, Israel. When Iran traded missile strikes with Israel in 2025, Amanat said foreign workers on the project, including Italian artisans, had to be evacuated, significantly delaying construction.
When asked what his first day in Iran would look like if he were able to return to the country of his birth, Amanat paused for thought before responding.
"I should pay my tributes or respect to the people who have been killed through all this period that I haven't been in Iran. People who have sacrificed themselves for the freedom of this country," he said.
'Robust' US Military Deployment To Gulf Ahead Of Possible Iran Strikes
A diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran could still avoid a military confrontation.
But one of Washington's largest-ever military buildups in the Persian Gulf is rapidly taking shape.
Experts say the deployment is aimed at giving US President Donald Trump military options if he chooses to act on his threats to attack Tehran for failing to make a nuclear deal and violently cracking down on protesters.
Iranian security forces killed thousands of demonstrators in January, after protests erupted in late December 2025 over the sharp collapse of the Iranian currency.
"The gathering of forces is a point of pressure applied by the United States on Iran to come to a negotiated agreement," said Amin Tarzi, professor of strategic studies at Marine Corps War College.
He said that after the buildup, the US military posture in the Gulf is "robust" with "naval and defensive air defense capabilities, plus offensive air components."
He said that in terms of numbers, the US buildup might not be the largest in the region where Washington has fought some of its most recent foreign wars.
Hundreds of thousands of American troops participated in two major US-led operations against Iraq: the 1991 Persian Gulf War, which liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which toppled Saddam Hussein's regime.
"The nature of war has changed dramatically, even compared to 2003," Tarzi said. "These are assets that have more capability but a much smaller footprint.
'Massive Armada'
In late January, President Trump reiterated his call for Tehran to face a "far worse" attack than the one aimed at the country in June if it fails to make a deal over its nuclear program.
He said a "massive armada" was heading to Iran and it was able to "rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence".
The fleet is led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, supported by several advanced warships that together form a carrier strike group. Last week, one of the strike group's jets shot down an Iranian drone.
David Des Roches, a professor at Washington's Thayer Marshall Institute, said multi-role ships such as USS Delbert D. Black, USS Mitscher, and USS McFaul are already in the Persian Gulf theater. All of these can launch missile strikes and have advanced naval and air defense capabilities.
On February 10, Trump said he might dispatch a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region to take part in the military action if talks with Iran fail.
Des Roches said the US forces currently around Iran are nimbler. "[The buildup] is much smaller, and it's much easier to scale up and scale down," he said.
He said advances in US military capacity mean it is also possible that Washington can again use strategic B2 bombers just like it used in June 2025 to strike deep inside Iran.
"These can come from the United States or Diego Garcia," he said. In the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, the US shares a joint military base with the United Kingdom.
CENTCOM
The Gulf region is part of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations, where the oil-rich Sunni Arab monarchies of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar have hosted US army, air force, and naval bases. The region is now estimated to have up to 40,000 US troops.
The Al-Udeid air base in Qatar houses CENTCOM's forward headquarters. In June 2025, Iran attempted to target it in retaliation for the US air strikes on its nuclear facilities. The US Navy's Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, from where it secures some of the world's busiest shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Additional US bases and ships are scattered in Jordan, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean. In Iraq and Syria, the US military presence has mostly been aimed at counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State extremist group.
"The massive increase in naval presence, in air presence, in air defenses, does signal the United States is very serious," said Brian Carter, the research manager at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington.
He said that Washington is bringing in air defense platforms to help defend its bases and US allies from any Iranian attacks.
"The navy fits into that picture as well, because naval ships can be armed with surface-to-air interceptors to shoot down incoming missiles," he said.
Across the Middle East, Washington has beefed up its air and missile defenses.
In recent weeks, it has deployed additional batteries of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile defense systems to the Gulf Arab nations and Jordan. Patriots are effective against low-flying and short-range projectiles. THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitudes.
Carter says that, in contrast to Iran's weak defense capabilities, the US defensive capacity is quite strong because of investments during the past decade.
"That's a kind of important asymmetry that we should keep in mind as we're thinking about strikes going forward," he said.
- By Ray Furlong
Iran's President Says Country Is Open To Nuclear Inspectors As Trump-Netanyahu Meet In Washington
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian has said his country is open to admitting international inspectors to prove its nuclear program is "peaceful," in comments marking the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, as US naval forces stand poised in the region for possible military strikes.
"We are not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. We have stated this repeatedly and are ready for any verification," he said on February 11, at anniversary celebrations taking place against a backdrop of a deadly crackdown in which security forces killed thousands of people attending mass nationwide protests last month.
Videos posted overnight from February 10-11 showed fireworks in Tehran in celebration of the anniversary -- even as many mourned dead loved ones.
On the videos, people could also be heard defiantly crying "death to the dictator" and "death to Khamenei," referring to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The crackdown on protesters was strongly condemned by the United States and its allies and led to the US naval build up, with US President Donald Trump telling protesters that Washington was coming to support them.
"We have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going," Trump said in an interview with Axios on February 10. The current US deployment is one the largest in the years.
After talks between US and Iranian teams in Oman on February 6, Washington imposed additional sanctions on Iran's oil sector. Further talks are expected but no date has been set.
Later on February 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet Trump in Washington to discuss the situation. A statement by Netanyahu's office said he wanted talks with Iran to include its ballistic missile program and support for armed proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Alexander Gray, who served on the National Security Council during Trump's first term in the White House, told RFE/RL these were the issues that would likely determine whether strikes are launched -- rather than efforts to help Iran's opposition.
"He doesn't want to see these brutal crackdowns. But I think the president's also a realist," he said. "From a fundamental US interest standpoint, as much as we decry the horrific human rights abuses, I think we are most likely to be effective in advocating for changes to their proxy behavior and their missile and nuclear programs."
US Vice President JD Vance appeared to confirm this as he departed from a visit to Azerbaijan on February 11.
"If the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that's up to the Iranian people. What we're focused on right now is the fact that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. That's been the focus of the president's policy, even going back to the first administration," he said.
- By Kian Sharifi and
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Why Israel Now Eyes Iran's Missiles Over Nukes Ahead Of Netanyahu-Trump Talks
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet US President Donald Trump in Florida on December 29, the agenda centers on Iran -- with a twist.
Israel is laser-focused on Iran’s ballistic missile program, which it views as the most urgent existential threat after the US-Israeli strikes severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure during a 12-day aerial campaign in June.
This shift highlights a growing US-Israel divergence. Trump has repeatedly described Iran's nuclear threat as "obliterated," crediting wartime bombings of sites in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. Israel agrees the program is set back by a year or two.
However, it warns that missiles -- which Iran is working to amass -- could soon overwhelm defenses, as demonstrated when 36 out of 550 missiles struck Israeli soil in June, causing widespread damage.
Missiles As 'Immediate' Priority
Israeli officials, speaking to NBC News and Axios, describe Iran's missile ramp-up as "more pressing" than its nuclear program.
Israel says the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has carried out drills and has warned Washington that Tehran might use the exercises as cover for surprise attacks.
This comes amid contradictory reports in Iran over whether missile tests are actually taking place. Iranian media, including the IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency, reported on December 22 that the armed forces were conducting drills, with users on social media sharing videos and footage of contrails in the skies over central and western Iran. However, the state broadcaster swiftly denied the reports, citing an unnamed "informed source" who insisted the contrails were from "high‑altitude aircraft" and claimed that no exercises were underway.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief Eyal Zamir hinted at readiness for new strikes against Iran "wherever required," prioritizing production lines that Israel fears could churn out 3,000 missiles annually.
Netanyahu plans to present Trump with strike options -- Israeli-led, joint, or US-backed -- arguing missiles enable proxy wars via Hezbollah and Houthis while shielding Iran’s nuclear revival.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Israel is pressing the United States to reclassify missiles as weapons of mass destruction.
“Israel is trying to shift this view, using the recent war's experience to convince the United States that Iran's missile capabilities are as existentially threatening as its nuclear ones,” Nadimi said.
He noted US reluctance, viewing nukes as the core danger, now degraded, but added, “From Israel's standpoint, these should count as weapons of mass destruction for its people.”
Nadimi warned that total missile destruction could force a doctrinal pivot in Tehran.
“If Israel fully destroys Iran's offensive missile capabilities... it would either have to surrender or make a fundamental doctrinal shift,” he said, adding that Iran's technical path to nuclear warheads remains feasible in a secure lab using 90-percent enriched uranium stocks.
Iran’s Missile Red Line
Iran has long maintained that its missile program is non-negotiable, asserting it is purely defensive. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei reiterated this on December 22:
“The defensive capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been designed with the aim of deterring aggressors from any thought of attacking Iran. Under no circumstances are they a matter that can be discussed or negotiated.”
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that while the United States and Israel may want different things from Iran, they converge on one point: “Iran is weakened now, so it's time to extract more concessions.”
Iran has capped the range of its missiles at 2,000 kilometers, though in recent months it has hinted it could increase the limit if it deems necessary. Azizi said the United States and Israel want Iran to reduce the range of its missiles -- a non-starter for Tehran.
Even in the unlikely scenario of an agreement on Iran’s missile program, he noted that Washington is aware enforcement would be difficult, given the absence of any international monitoring body or safeguards regime for missile programs.
Against this backdrop, Azizi argued that missiles serve as pressure leverage:
“First, to make Iran fully abandon [uranium] enrichment on its soil; second, to secure concessions on arms transfers to groups such as Hezbollah or the Houthis.”
Iranian Media Gleeful Yet Concerned
Israeli rhetoric around Iran’s missile program has been met with a mixture of delight and alarm in Iranian media.
Highlighting Iran’s pace in replenishing its missile arsenal following the June war, the IRGC-affiliated newspaper Javan said Israel was “terrified” of Iran’s ability to launch hundreds of missiles in a potential conflict. The same sentiment was echoed by other hard-line outlets, such as Mehr news agency.
But others have urged caution. Bultan News argued that Netanyahu was exaggerating Iran’s ability to restore its missile stockpile to justify an attack. It added that Tehran must take the rhetoric seriously.
“Every piece of news or report that is published can be part of a larger puzzle. Distinguishing which news is real and which is psychological warfare is not easy. But making that effort is a national security necessity,” it argued.
Hannah Kaviani and Reza Jamali of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By Iliya Jazaeri and
- Kian Sharifi
One Year After Assad's Fall: Iran's Strategic Collapse In Syria
The collapse of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last year was felt across the Middle East -- nowhere more than in Iran, his closest ally.
Assad’s fall was a major blow to Iran, which had used Syria to expand its regional influence and funnel weapons to armed groups fighting Israel, Tehran’s archrival.
One year on from Assad’s overthrow on December 8, 2024, Iran is still grappling with the consequences of its strategic defeat in Syria. The Islamic republic has attempted to rebuild its influence in Syria, but experts say there is likely no way back for Iran.
With Assad’s collapse, Iran lost its only “advanced base” in the Mediterranean Sea and saw the billions it spent on propping up Damascus go up in smoke, said Rami Abdulrahman, director of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
“In other words, Iran, after expanding its reach in the region, has returned to its natural borders,” Abdulrahman told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
After Syria’s civil war broke out, Iran spent an estimated $30 billion to $50 billion supporting the Assad government from 2011 to 2020.
Tehran also trained, armed, and deployed tens of thousands of Shi’ite fighters from across the region to defend Assad. Tehran also sent hundreds of its own military personnel to Syria.
Those commitments underlined Syria’s importance to Iran. Under Assad, Syria was a cornerstone of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” its loose network of proxies and partners in the region.
Syria was the only other state that was a member of the alliance, which also includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important and potent proxy. Syria served as the primary supply route to Hezbollah -- a corridor that closed with Assad's departure.
No Easy Path To Reconciliation
Soon after Assad’s fall, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Syrians to “rise up” against the new authorities in comments that were widely seen as an attempt to interfere in Syria.
In March, when sectarian violence flared in western Syria, some accused Tehran of stoking unrest, noting that several Shi’ite militia leaders involved in the clashes had been trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The incident, experts said, underscored Tehran’s attempts to use sectarian violence and alleged atrocities committed by forces loyal to Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to regain its foothold in the country.
Experts say Iran is likely to cultivate local militias and proxy commanders rather than overtly deploying its forces.
“Documented reports about the Islamic republic's actions have not been published, but various media have published reports about Tehran's efforts to rebuild forces loyal to it in Syria,” said Ata Mohamed-Tabriz, a Spain-based Middle East expert.
“We also see that the Islamic republic is trying to cooperate with forces opposed to [Sharaa] or trying to amplify their voices.”
There have also been reports suggesting that Iran is looking to Russia, which has managed to cultivate ties with Sharaa, to help it establish relations with the new government.
But Abdulrahman believes there is no way back for Iran.
“There is no possibility, neither in terms of government nor in terms of popular base, even among Alawites, for accepting Iran's presence again in Syria. Among Alawites too, Iran is one of the countries most criticized,” he said.
Alawites are the sect of Shi'ite Islam to which Assad and many of his supporters belong. Shi’ite-majority Iran has portrayed itself as a protector of the sect.
Still, Syria's interim president has not entirely shut the door on Tehran, even as Iran is among only two states whose citizens are currently barred from entering the country.
Speaking about ties with Iran, Sharaa told Syrian state television in a recent interview that Tehran left “a deep wound” on Syrians, in reference to Tehran’s support for Assad during the civil war.
“But we do not say that the severance of relations between us and Iran will be permanent. If we reach a stage where Syria is respected, there is no interference in its internal affairs, and sectarian tensions are not fueled, relations will be established,” he said.
These dynamics now define the parameters of Syria’s emerging foreign policy. Since moving away from Iran, Damascus has seen many international sanctions lifted, including by the United States and Europe, opening doors to foreign investment in the war-ravaged country.
Syria’s new government is determined to protect these gains, and restoring ties with Tehran would require fundamental shifts in Iranian foreign policy -- changes that appear unlikely under the current leadership in Tehran, experts said.
- By Kian Sharifi
Why Iraq's Election Is Iran's Last, Best Hedge
Iraq's parliamentary election on November 11 arrives as Tehran's regional hand weakens and the outcome could determine whether it preserves a vital anchor in its sphere of influence, financing, and deterrence or slides into a costlier, fragmented game of managing proxies from afar.
With setbacks in Syria and growing constraints on Hezbollah -- designated a terror organization by the United States -- in Lebanon, Iraq has become the indispensable arena for safeguarding Tehran's regional depth, economic access, and deterrence architecture.
"The parliamentary election could indeed be consequential for Iran, because if its preferred candidates fare poorly, it's just another thing that goes wrong for Tehran, and could lead to a cascading effect where Iranian power is viewed as significantly diminished," said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.
If Iran fails to get its desired result, Clarke added, it would damage Tehran's brand across the region "as it makes the leaders look weak."
Iran's Uphill Battle
For years, Iran has projected influence in neighboring Iraq by backing an array of Shi'ite parties and militias -- some founded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
But its grip has loosened since the 2020 US killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The sway Tehran once held over these groups has since eroded, giving way to infighting and fragmentation.
Shi'ite factions within the Coordination Framework -- a political alliance that includes Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani -- are now divided over US-backed efforts to disband the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Iran-aligned militias integrated into Iraq's army in 2016.
Several Shi'ite lists that once coordinated under Tehran's patronage are now running against each other, reflecting not only waning cohesion but a shift toward transactional, interest-driven politics rather than unified pro-Iran slates.
In a bid to contain those rivalries, Iran dispatched Soleimani's successor, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, to Baghdad earlier in October. It remains unclear whether his mission succeeded.
"Iran does not have positive momentum and has been greatly diminished," Clarke said. "The way Israel ran roughshod over Iran and its proxies has likely led to creeping doubt among its supporters and patrons that the leaders may be less reliable than in the past."
Preventing Bad From Getting Worse
That erosion of influence is compounded by broader regional setbacks. Over the past two years, Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Iran's network and capabilities -- from decimating the military leadership of the US-designated Palestinian group Hamas and its infrastructure in Gaza to severely degrading Hezbollah and striking IRGC assets in Syria and inside Iran itself. The confrontation culminated in direct war in June, exposing major vulnerabilities on the Iranian side.
The weakening of Hezbollah and the IRGC's position in Syria ultimately contributed to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally who allowed Iran to turn Syria into a land corridor linking its partners in Iraq and Lebanon.
For Tehran, Iraq now stands as the most immediate and indispensable anchor for regional deterrence and political leverage at a time when alternatives elsewhere in the Middle East are narrowing.
If the election results disappoint Tehran, Clarke expects persistence rather than retreat.
"Iran has the difficult task ahead of having to rebuild these proxy groups and dedicate more time, energy, and resources -- all of which are in short supply -- to keep the relationships strong," he said.
Iraq's vote is not just another election. It is a test of whether Iran can still shape outcomes in a region where its power is being steadily chipped away.