Middle East
- By Ray Furlong
As Hezbollah Steps Up Attacks, Who Really Calls The Shots?
When rocket fire from Lebanon hit the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona, it damaged a bus and left a man in his 50s with a serious shrapnel wound to his face, according to emergency services.
Just 2 kilometers from the border, Kiryat Shmona is in the direct firing line of Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group based in Lebanon that's deemed a terrorist organization by Israel and the United States.
The March 23 strike was not the first on the town by Hezbollah since it attacked Israel three weeks ago after Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28.
Despite an intense Israeli military campaign in response, Hezbollah appears to be not only resilient but is even stepping up its campaign.
"Since Hezbollah joined the fighting on March 2…there has been a continuous increase in the scope of attacks, with a shift to higher and more consistent levels of activity in recent days," Israeli think tank Alma said in its daily war report on March 23.
What's Behind Hezbollah's Resilience?
Hezbollah entered the current war severely weakened by its 2023-24 fighting with Israel.
But analysts have said Iran was able to partially rebuild it, while organizational changes creating greater autonomy for individual units have helped the group better absorb repeated losses of leaders.
"Hezbollah's leadership had spent months quietly rearming -- drawing on a monthly budget estimated at around $50 million, replenishing rockets and drones through Iranian funding and local production," wrote Guy Itzhaki, a former anti-terrorism chief for Israeli military intelligence, in a paper on March 15.
However, he added that the current conflict was "pushing the organization closer to a battered insurgency than to an unbeaten 'resistance army,' even if its core force remains substantial."
Heiko Wimmen, a Beirut-based analyst who heads the International Crisis Group's Iraq/Syria/Lebanon project, told RFE/RL the reorganization of Hezbollah was "to some extent what they try to communicate to the outside world after 2024, that [idea of] going back to the roots of resistance."
"You just make it clear to the enemy that occupation and offensive warfare would be very, very costly and [would] not give you any results. So, with that you go back to the original model of guerrilla warfare, which, as you can see now, they're still good at," he added.
Indeed, the latest attack on Kiryat Shmona came just days after four people were injured when a Hezbollah rocket hit an apartment block in the town. The group says it has managed to strike the town, which has a population of 25,000 people, on seven occasions.
"Hezbollah is seeking a 'victory image' that, from its perspective, will be achieved by causing Israeli residents in communities near the border to leave," the Alma think tank said, noting also the group's continuing ability to attack Israeli soldiers in Lebanon.
All this comes after a three-week Israeli campaign that, according to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief Eyal Zamir, has struck "2,000 targets, dozens of weapons depots, and eliminated hundreds of terrorists."
The Israeli attacks, mostly air strikes but also some ground operations, have killed more than 1,000 people and displaced around 1 million, according to the Lebanese authorities.
The Revolutionary Guards
Israel's military response also included a strike on a four-star downtown Beirut hotel that Israel said killed five senior commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on March 8.
The IDF said the commanders were involved in aiding Hezbollah with financing and intelligence, highlighting how Iran not only bankrolls but also exerts influence on the group.
It was followed by reports that Russia had evacuated more than 100 Iranians, thought to include diplomats and embassy staff, on a special flight from Lebanon.
Wimmen, the Beirut-based analyst, indicated it was likely at least some of these people were also IRGC figures fleeing future Israeli strikes. It's not clear if others remain or if they are now working remotely.
In a TV interview on March 22, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the IRGC was still directly commanding Hezbollah. It was, he said, "managing the military operation in Lebanon" after its members entered the country illegally using "forged passports."
Salam's government is under pressure from Israel to take action against Hezbollah, but Lebanon's military ability to do so is limited and any action could also risk of sparking civil strife within the country.
Wimmen said it was hard to gauge to what degree the IRGC controlled Hezbollah but that its influence has certainly grown since the group's former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike in 2024.
"I think it's pretty well established and credible that he and Khamenei would talk on eye level," he said, referring to Iran's former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli air strike on February 28.
"It's very clear -- and it would be nonsense to expect anything else -- that this balance, that the needle there, has shifted significantly toward the IRGC after Nasrallah and all the other senior [Hezbollah] leaders were assassinated," Wimmen added.
More News
- By RFE/RL
Trump Sees 'Very Serious Chance' Of Iran Deal As He Delays Strikes On Energy Targets
US President Donald Trump said he sees a "very serious chance" of making a deal with Tehran after he revealed the two sides held talks over the weekend that led him to delay any strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.
Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One on March 23, Trump said special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were involved in talks initiated by Iran with a "senior" Iranian leader -- though not Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei -- that have lead to "major points of agreement."
"They will never have a nuclear weapon. They've agreed to that," Trump said.
Officials and state-affiliated media in Iran immediately denied any such dialogue taking place. The Tasnim and Fars news agencies, both close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), cited sources saying "no negotiations" were under way, either directly or indirectly, between Tehran and Washington.
Oman, meanwhile, is "working intensively to put in place safe passage arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz," the country's foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said on social media shortly before Trump said the United States had "productive conversations" about ending the war.
"Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, witch [sic] will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period," Trump said in the social media post on March 23, adding the halt was subject to the success of the talks.
There had been no prior announcement that talks between Washington and Tehran were being held. There was no immediate public comment from Israel, which said just after Trump's announcement that it was conducting air strikes on central Iran.
"We've wiped out the leadership phase one, phase two, and largely phase three. But we're dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader," Trump told reporters. "We want no enrichment, but we also want the enriched uranium."
Strait Of Hormuz Deadline
Trump's announcement comes as a deadline he set looms for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Trump had given Tehran until 7:44 p.m. Washington time on March 23 to "fully open" the key waterway, which handles about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies, or face dire consequences, including the obliteration of Iran's power plants.
That warning came a day after Trump had said he was considering "winding down" military operations with, he asserted, most US goals achieved. The Pentagon is also reportedly sending thousands of additional ground forces to the region.
Iran had vowed to retaliate if Trump should carry out his threat on power plants.
Iran's military command was quoted by state media as saying that if Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy infrastructure belonging to the United States in the region will be targeted. Iran also said desalination facilities will be struck.
Separately, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, warned that "immediately after the targeting of power plants and infrastructure in our country, vital infrastructure and energy and oil infrastructure throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be irreversibly destroyed."
According to the HRANA Iranian human rights group, more than 3,000 people have been killed in the war since the United States and Israel launched strikes on February 28.
The conflict has upended energy and stock markets, driven up fuel costs, fueled global inflation fears and rocked the Middle East and the West, with concerns the fighting will spillover and engulf the region.
The threat of strikes on Gulf electricity grids raised fears of mass disruption to desalination for drinking water and further rattled oil markets.
The price of the Brent crude oil benchmark has skyrocketed since the outbreak of the conflict, but was down sharply after Trump's initial comments about the talks with Iran.
He added during his remarks to the press that a decision last week to ease sanctions on Iranian oil -- which had been criticized by some for allowing Iran to help fund its strikes on targets around the Middle East -- was made because he wanted there to be "as much oil in the system as possible."
The price of Brent crude oil was trading at around $102 a barrel in midafternoon activity on March 23, down almost 9 percent on the day.
With reporting by Reuters and RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Iran's Long-Distance Strikes On Diego Garcia Put Europe On High Alert
European nations have tried their best not to get too entangled in the US-Israeli war with Iran, now in its fourth week. They've been weighing whether to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz but said they would do so only after a cease-fire and preferably with a mandate from the United Nations.
But on March 21, the threat came closer to home when Iran proved that its missiles have the potential to reach European cities.
Tehran fired two ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia -- a joint American-British base in the Indian Ocean some 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory -- and officials in Brussels and beyond are suddenly taking notice.
Previously, Iran -- under the reign of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- had maintained a cap to its ballistic missile range at 2,000 kilometers.
Khamenei was killed by a US-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28. And that cap that now appears gone -- much to the discomfort of Europe.
Brussels is already tied up in a war closer to home: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year. The bloc has sent more than 70 billion euros in military aid to date.
"This is for us a new dimension to the [Iran] war," says one senior EU official speaking to RFE/RL under condition of anonymity. "Let's be honest, our air defenses are pretty depleted right now."
Many European nations have contributed to Kyiv's air defenses but also realized there are considerable air-defense gaps on the Continent if it were ever tested. While possessing high-quality technology such as Patriots, SAMP/T and IRIS-T missile systems, several European defense ministries openly admit there are considerable shortages in interceptors.
Europe would also struggle against so-called saturation attacks used by Russia in Ukraine in which the air-defense systems are overwhelmed by an onslaught of jamming, cyberattacks, drones and various types of missiles.
Europe continues to be heavily reliant on the United States for long-range coverage. It is here that Iran's potential threat to Europe comes into the picture.
Commenting on the Diego Garcia strikes, the Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir noted that "these missiles are not intended to strike Israel. Their range reaches European capitals; Berlin, Paris, and Rome are all within direct threat range."
Speaking to RFE/RL on March 21, Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel, said that "Iran can no longer be seen as a threat confined to the Middle East. It is building capabilities meant to raise the costs for more distant adversaries, too" adding that "If I were the Europeans, I'd be worried."
The British cabinet minister Steve Reed said on March 22 that one missile launched toward Diego Garcia "fell short" while another missile was "intercepted." He also refuted Israeli claims that Europe could be targeted by adding that "there was no assessment that backed claims that Iran was planning to strike European cities with ballistic missiles, or that it had the capacity to do so."
Iranian drones have so far been intercepted over British military bases on Cyprus whereas the NATO-member Turkey had intercepted three ballistic missiles on various occasions early in March.
While NATO hasn't offered any new comments to RFE/RL since the Diego Garcia attacks, the military alliance instead referred to its comment about when Turkey successfully intercepted those attacks.
"So far NATO BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense) has been effective against Iranian missiles in Turkey, which is exactly what it was designed for," Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and current fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, told RFE/RL.
A NATO official speaking to RFE/RL under the condition of anonymity also noted that the NATO BMD was designed exactly to withstand Iranian missiles -- not necessarily Russian ones -- when it was first tconstructed in the early 2000s and became operational in 2012.
Germany hosts the command center at its Ramstein air base, while the actual missile defenses are situated in Polish and Romanian bases. Turkey hosts a radar, and Spain has four BMD-capable ships at its Rota naval base.
But make no mistake: The NATO BMD has a significant American footprint that makes Europe reliant on US military protection.
Robert Pszczel, a former NATO official and current security expert with the Warsaw-based think tank Center for Eastern Studies, told RFE/RL that "the working presumption is that the system is operational and is doing exactly what it is supposed to do."
"Of course, it is a special system with key elements provided by the US," he added.
- By RFE/RL and
- Serhiy Stetsenko
At Least 175 Injured In Iranian Strikes Across Israel, Including Near Nuclear Site
Iranian missile attacks injured at least 175 people across several Israeli cities, officials said. A strike in the southern city of Arad wounded 115 people. Another attack injured dozens near Dimona, close to Israel’s nuclear site, officially described as a research facility.
- By RFE/RL
Trump Gives Tehran 48 Hours To Open Hormuz Or US Will 'Obliterate' Iran's Power Plants
US President Donald Trump has given Tehran 48 hours to "fully open" the crucial Strait of Hormuz or the United States will "obliterate" Iran's power plants, a major escalation of tensions in a war that already threatens to spin out of control.
The deadline threat was posted on Trump's Truth Social platform on the evening of March 21, saying: "If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!"
He did not specify which power plants would be targeted, and the warning came a day after Trump had said he was considering "winding down" military operations.
Even as he spoke, the Pentagon was sending thousands of additional ground forces to the region aboard US Navy ships to bolster military assets in the war with Iran, multiple media outlets reported. The Pentagon hasn't commented officially on the reported deployments.
In an almost immediate response to Trump's ultimatum, Iran's military command was quoted by state media as saying that if Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy infrastructure belonging to the United States in the region will be targeted. Iran also said desalination facilities will be struck.
Backing up that claim, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, warned on X that "Immediately after the targeting of power plants and infrastructure in our country, vital infrastructure and energy and oil infrastructure throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be irreversibly destroyed."
Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, adding that it would only be reopened once any facilities destroyed in US attacks had been rebuilt.
Although not physically blocked, Iran has made the waterway ungovernable through a combination of kinetic strikes, mines, electronic warfare, and market fear.
Blockage of the strait has restricted global supplies, sending oil prices surging worldwide and raising the cost of living for hundreds of millions of people.
Trump has demanded that countries that utilize the strait for transport of their energy resources take the lead in protecting shipping through the waterway by military escort or other means.
US European allies and Japan have expressed readiness for "appropriate" efforts to secure passage through the strait, but many have said such an action would only come after a cease-fire, angering Trump, who called them "cowards."
Tit-For-Tat Attacks Near Nuclear Sites
Meanwhile, Israel and Iran appeared to intensify risks of a major disaster, with each side striking close to nuclear facilities of the other combatant, raising the rhetoric level in Tel Aviv and Tehran and worrying the UN atomic watchdog.
An Iranian missile on March 21 hit the two southern Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona, with a reported 175 people needing medical treatment.
Media also reported that blasts were heard and air raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem early on March 22 after the Israeli military warned of incoming missile fire from Iran.
Dimona is home to a nuclear facility, in what Tehran said was in retaliation for strikes on its Natanz uranium enrichment facility earlier in the day.
Israel has never publicly acknowledged that it has a nuclear weapon and the Dimona complex is officially described as a research facility. The site, just outside the main town, is widely believed to possess Israel’s nuclear arsenal, the only such holding in the Middle East.
After the earlier strike on Iran's Natanz site, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reiterated its call for "military restraint to prevent a nuclear accident."
The IAEA then repeated the call for "maximum military restraint" following Iran's missile launch against Dimona.
"The IAEA is aware of reports of an incident in the city of Dimona, Israel, involving a missile impact and has not received any indication of damage to the nuclear research center Negev," the agency said on X.
"Information from regional states indicates that no abnormal radiation levels have been detected," it added.
The Israeli Army announced on March 22 that Iran has fired more than 400 ballistic missiles at Israel since the start of the war three weeks ago and that about 92 percent of which have been intercepted.
Meanwhile, Israel also said its forces had struck a facility within a Tehran university that it claimed was being used to develop components for nuclear weapons.
"The Malek-Ashtar University facility was utilized by the Iranian terror regime's military industries and ballistic missiles array to develop nuclear weapon components and weapons," the military said.
Hezbollah Attacks, Gulf States Targeted
In a parallel development, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group said it attacked Israeli soldiers in northern Israel's Misgav Am, where first responders said rocket fire from Lebanon killed one person.
The death is the first Israeli fatality from fire from Lebanon since fighting started with Hezbollah on March 2.
There were also reports of at least six overnight attacks targeting a US diplomatic and logistics center at Baghdad's International Airport while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also detected Iranian missile and drone attacks.
'Battle For Our Future'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue striking Iran after what he called a "very difficult evening" following the attacks on Dimona and Arad.
"This is a very difficult evening in the battle for our future," Netanyahu said in a statement. "We are determined to continue striking our enemies on all fronts."
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Israel and the United States would begin intensifying their air strikes on Iran beginning on March 22.
"The intensity of the strikes to be carried out by the IDF and the US military against the Iranian terror regime and the infrastructure on which it relies will rise significantly," Katz said in a statement.
Iran's Longest Shot
The world continued to react to Iran's surprise launch of ballistic missiles toward the joint US-UK base on the island of Diego Garcia, some 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory.
Israel said Iranian forces had for the first time fired long-range missiles, expanding the risk of attacks beyond the Middle East. Neither missile hit the site.
"These missiles are not intended to strike Israel. Their range reaches European capitals -- Berlin, Paris, and Rome are all within direct threat range," Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir said.
The British cabinet minister Steve Reed said on March 22 that one missile launched "fell short" while another missile was "intercepted." He also added that there was no assessment that backed claims that Iran was planning to strike European cities with ballistic missiles, or that it had the capacity to do so.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, and AFP
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Chokehold On Hormuz And The Limits Of Military Force
The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide chokepoint through which roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, is effectively closed to normal commercial traffic.
Iran has not blockaded the strait with a chain or a fleet. Instead, it has made the waterway ungovernable through a combination of kinetic strikes, mines, electronic warfare, and market fear -- creating a closure that is arguably harder to reverse than a conventional blockade.
"I can think of no way to reopen and keep open Hormuz militarily and easily," Richard Allen Williams, a retired US Army colonel and former NATO Defense Investment Division official, told RFE/RL.
How The Strait Was Closed
The shutdown has four interlocking layers.
The first is physical: more than two dozen drone, missile, and fast-attack boat strikes on commercial shipping since the war began, with Iran demonstrating it can reach vessels hundreds of kilometers from the strait itself, off the coast of Iraq.
The second is mines. According to US intelligence reporting, Iran has begun laying mines in the strait. Its total arsenal is estimated at around 6,000, ranging from crude contact mines to sophisticated seabed devices that respond to acoustic or magnetic signals.
Laying them is easy; it can be done from ordinary fishing boats, indistinguishable from normal Persian Gulf traffic. Clearing them is not. It took the United States and its allies 51 days to sweep 907 mines off Kuwait after the Persian Gulf War, with the advantage of Iraqi minefield maps. Even a limited Iranian mining campaign would mean a closure measured in months.
The third layer is electronic. GPS spoofing and signal jamming affected more than 1,650 vessels on a single day in March, with navigation systems showing supertankers sailing over dry land and cargo ships transiting airports. In a narrow waterway, that level of disruption creates genuine collision risk with no missile required.
The fourth and final layer is financial: War-risk insurers have withdrawn coverage across much of the commercial market. Without insurance, ships don't move.
Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel, says the threat is structurally asymmetric.
"Just a few attacks per month is enough to increase insurance prices and market pressure," he told RFE/RL, comparing the situation to the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea. "This is a battle heavily tilted in favor of the disrupter."
What Washington Is Considering, And Why It's Hard
The Trump administration is weighing a couple of options.
Tanker escorts -- warships accompanying commercial vessels with drone and missile cover -- are the lightest footprint but require roughly two warships per tanker and continuous drone patrols overhead.
But the risk is high, according to Horowitz.
"A land-based attacker, even without a proper navy, can be very effective. A US loss would be dramatic and roll back the positive impact of escort missions in an instant."
Mines compound the problem further. The US mine countermeasure capability in the region, already limited to aging helicopters and troubled littoral combat ships, was weakened further when dedicated minesweepers stationed in Bahrain were decommissioned in late 2025.
Heavier air strikes aimed at Iranian coastal infrastructure are a second option. US Central Command says it has destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers. But Iran's mobile launchers are designed for shoot-and-scoot operations, and years of dispersal and hardening make systematic degradation from the air enormously difficult.
A third option that has been floated in the media is a ground operation, a Marine amphibious assault to seize or repeatedly raid Iran's southern coastline.
Williams was blunt about what that means in practice: large forces, mountainous terrain, and 190,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) troops with asymmetric warfare experience. "Difficult, expensive, risky," he said, "with no assurance of success."
The Bottom Line
Even an optimistic escort scenario would reduce traffic to 10 percent of normal volume, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence, with a backlog of over 600 stranded vessels taking months to clear. None of the military options address the insurance and market dimension -- and shippers, not the Pentagon, ultimately decide whether tankers sail.
Horowitz sees a negotiated settlement as the most realistic path, but flags two other possibilities: blockading Iran's own energy exports to pressure both Tehran and its top buyer China, or waiting for the collapse of the Islamic republic. He's skeptical of the latter.
"The chances of that happening quickly enough for markets to recover are low, to say the least," he added.
What that leaves is a strait that may stay closed for the foreseeable future, not for lack of military options, but because none of them can do what only a political outcome can.
Alex Raufoglu contributed to this report.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Missile Cap Died With Khamenei, Putting Europe Within Reach
Iran for years maintained that it had capped its ballistic missile range at 2,000 kilometers.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's then-supreme leader, said in 2021 that he had imposed the limit despite protests from military figures, framing it as a deliberate choice.
That choice, according to Iranian military officials, was a signal to Europe that it was not in Iran's crosshairs.
On March 21, within weeks of Khamenei's assassination in the US-Israeli war with Iran, Tehran fired two ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint US-British base in the Indian Ocean some 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory.
The cap, it appears, is gone.
The missiles did not hit their target; one failed in flight, and a US warship intercepted the second. Analysts note that striking Diego Garcia at all would require gutting the payload of Iran's most capable long-range missile, the Khorramshahr-4, to a fraction of its normal warhead weight, raising serious questions about accuracy over open ocean.
But the signal, experts say, was the point.
"The rules of the game have changed," Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel, told RFE/RL.
"Iran is in a war of survival and is making short-term decisions. For years, Tehran treated the 2,000-kilometer cap as a way to reassure the region while preserving deterrence," he said. "Now that logic is giving way to something more urgent: demonstrating that Iran can still impose costs, and that its capacity for disruption extends well beyond its immediate neighborhood."
The collapse of the cap within days of Khamenei's death is difficult to read as a coincidence. The 2,000-kilometer limit was never a technical constraint -- Iran's missile program had long exceeded it -- but rather a personal political one, maintained by Khamenei over reported internal resistance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Danny Citrinowicz, a security analyst at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, attributed the strike to "the shifting balance of power inside Iran" and the "growing dominance" of the IRGC.
"The emerging Iran is likely to behave less like the cautious, calculating actor we've known and more like a risk-tolerant, North Korea–style system," he said.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father on March 8 as supreme leader, has yet to consolidate authority. In fact, he has not been seen in public since his ascension. Whether the attempt to hit Diego Garcia was ordered by the new supreme leader or driven by an IRGC no longer bound by the old rules, the outcome is the same: a constraint that held for years has evaporated almost immediately.
Horowitz argues the attempted strike on Diego Garcia reflects Iranian weakness as much as capability.
"The more its existing deterrent architecture breaks down, the more attractive nuclear capability and longer-range missiles become as substitutes," he said. "Iran can no longer be seen as a threat confined to the Middle East. It is building capabilities meant to raise the costs for more distant adversaries, too."
For Europe, the implications are significant. Iran now has a demonstrated willingness -- if not yet a reliable ability -- to strike assets far beyond its neighborhood while simultaneously threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in ways that would hit European energy markets and, as a consequence, bolster Russia.
"If I were the Europeans," Horowitz said, "I'd be worried."
- By RFE/RL
IAEA Urges 'Military Restraint' As Iran's Natanz Facility Hit, More Ground Troops Travel To Region
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reiterated its call for restraint as Iran reported that its Natanz uranium enrichment facility had been hit on March 21, as US and Israeli strikes continued despite US President Donald Trump saying the day before that the war could be "winding down."
No increase in radiation levels had been reported outside the Natanz facility, the IAEA said. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said in a statement that "no leakage of radioactive materials has been reported in this complex and no danger threatens the residents of the areas surrounding this site," it said in a statement.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, in a post on X, reiterated his call for "military restraint to prevent a nuclear accident."
This is at least the second time the Natanz facility has been targeted during the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran that began on February 28.
Natanz was struck by US B-2 bombers on July 1, 2025, during Israel's 12-day war with Iran. At the time, Trump said the facility was "completely and absolutely" destroyed.
Meanwhile, a massive fire was reported at a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad airport in Iraq. Images from eyewitnesses showed a huge fire followed by dark columns of smoke rising into the sky.
Iraqi security sources said the fire was reported after renewed drone attacks on the US diplomatic compound near Baghdad airport.
At least three strikes were also reported on the compound, with a fire breaking out after the third attack.
The pro-Iranian militia group Ashab al-Kahf claimed responsibility for the attacks in a statement.
On March 20, Trump said he is considering "winding down" military efforts in the Middle East, even as reports grow of thousands of US ground forces heading toward the region as the war with Iran enters its fourth week.
"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran," Trump posted on Truth Social on March 20.
In the post, he listed the main US goals in the war, including degrading Iran's military and preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Trump also suggested it will be up to other countries that utilize the Strait of Hormuz -- now effectively shut down by Iran -- to secure shipping in the crucial waterway and help put a cap on soaring oil prices that threaten to roil the world economy.
"The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it -- The United States does not [use it]!" he said.
"If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them," he added.
Trump's latest comments appear to be somewhat contradictory to recent remarks in which he suggested that, while Iran's military and leadership were mostly destroyed by US-Israeli air strikes, there was still work to be done.
The US Treasury Department on March 20 issued a 30-day authorization for the delivery and sale of previously sanctioned Iranian crude oil and petroleum products currently "stranded" on vessels.
However, Iranian oil ministry spokesman Saman Ghodousi wrote on X that Iran did not have any surplus oil stranded on vessels, rejecting US remarks that the action would free up some 140 million barrels for the world market.
Washington had previously granted a 30-day allowance for the purchase of sanctioned Russian oil that was also stranded at sea to bolster global supplies.
Israel To Ramp Up Strikes
Israel Katz, Israel's defense minister, said on March 21 that military operations against Iran are expected to increase in intensity in the coming days.
"The intensity of the attacks that will be carried out by the Israeli and US military against the Iranian regime and its supporting infrastructure will increase significantly," Katz said in a statement released by Israel's Defense Ministry.
A growing number of media outlets have reported -- citing unnamed US officials -- that thousands of additional US ground troops are on their way to the region, a move seen as giving the United States additional options in the war with Iran.
Trump, on March 19, denied to reporters he was about to deploy more troops, although he appeared to keep the door open: "I'm not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you. But I'm not putting troops. We will do whatever is necessary."
Reuters cited three US officials as saying 2,500 Marines, along with the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship, and accompanying warships would deploy to the region, although they did not say what their role would be.
CBS, citing sources, reported that the Pentagon is preparing to send the famed 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
Newsmax, meanwhile, reported that the US military had already accelerated the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to potentially help reinforce its forces fighting against Iran.
Citing three officials speaking on condition of anonymity, the agency reported that the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit were deploying ahead of schedule from the West Coast of the United States.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, citing unnamed US officials.
"Roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines from the California-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the US Central Command, responsible for all American forces in the Middle East," the Journal cited officials as saying.
The forces would be in addition to an earlier deployment of Marines, due to arrive this week in the region. The Pentagon sent the 5,000-strong, Japan-based USS Tripoli and 31st MEU to the Middle East, adding to the approximately 50,000 troops already stationed in the region, the WSJ reported.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian forces targeted the strategically important US-UK military base on the tiny island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean but did not hit the site in the most ambitious strike geographically by the Islamic republic.
The report said two ballistic missiles were fired, with one failing to reach the island and the other being fired at by a US warship, although it wasn't clear if the US interceptor struck the missile.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, AFP, dpa, and The Wall Street Journal
Zineb Riboua: What The War With Iran Means For China And Russia
Beijing and Moscow are both close partners of Tehran. With the US-Israeli strikes approaching a third week and Iran retaliating across the region, the conflict is poised to possibly -- and significantly -- affect those ties, the broader roles Russia and China play in the Middle East, and their relations with Washington.
Zineb Riboua is a research fellow with the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and an expert on Chinese and Russian involvement in the region. She spoke to RFE/RL's Georgian Service about how China and Russia are responding to the war and what they stand to lose or gain.
RFE/RL: How is this war reshaping Beijing's role in the Middle East, its interests, its limits, and perceptions of China across the region?
Zineb Riboua: By attacking Iran, the United States is also indirectly weakening China's posture in the Middle East. For a few reasons, obviously China has a very good relationship with Gulf countries as well has a trade relationship, very transactional, some of them mainly because of the oil.
Obviously for China, it's beyond just [the] Belt and Road initiative and the Digital Silk Road. Why? Because Iran is a very aggressive partner to have. They terrorize the whole region. They have militias. These militias are very useful when you are openly contesting US power in the world, in a very important region due to its energy flows and to its importance.... You want that to happen because it's the only way you can gain a better posture.
There's also the fact that Iran plays a big role in sanctions evasion. China does not want to be a victim of US sanctions and does not want to be in the same position as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Using Iran as a way to go around sanctions and financial channels is very important for China, especially when we're thinking about a possible crisis in Taiwan.
Lastly, Iran, because of its geography, is very interesting for China, which is why they had this 25-year cooperation agreement where the Chinese pledged for $400 billion worth of investment -- so that every single thing the Chinese would do would reverberate beyond just the Middle East, but also in Central Asia and other regions.
On many levels, it's very noticeable how China also benefited from a very aggressive Iran, to the point where Iran's own military arsenal was basically built by China --- the missiles, the components, the chemicals, a lot of it came from China. Also, there's the surveillance part, and Iran's own regime is obviously very repressive. They relied heavily on Chinese technology to identify people.
That just tells you the depth of China's involvement in Iran, but also how it spread towards the region. And so, Operation Epic Fury is actually dismantling a lot of this. Because whatever comes next, they will have to be a non-hostile US actor. Otherwise, the United States will not approve it.... So, I think that's a very dangerous thing for China to not have access to a regime that is as willing, as open, as submissive. That, I think, is a big deal.
RFE/RL: What can China realistically do to prevent the loss of this hugely important asset?
Riboua: This is a certain type of asset that is very hard to replicate. It's very hard to just replicate what the Islamic republic was doing. What they are doing right now is adopting a balancing position, condemning Iran's aggression against Gulf countries, because at the end of the day, all these things were actually for China so that they can get access to US allies, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and these countries are very important.
I think they are going to recalibrate, but they will have to look at some other country where they can use it as a laboratory for sanctions and so on. I don't think a lot of countries will be open to doing that. You can see that by the fact that Trump is going not just after the Islamic republic, but also Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba.
The whole world is going to think twice about dealing with China precisely because China did not help Iran. It did not help Iran during the 12-day war and even now.
RFE/RL: Why didn't China help? If so much riding on it for Beijing, how long can it remain on the sidelines?
Riboua: They did not help and can't help because they see Iran [as] a dying regime. In [Iran], way before the strikes, you could see their inflation rate, youth unemployment, bad water management, incapacity to basically have a monetary policy.... There were all of the indicators that show that it's a dying republic, a dying regime. There is maybe a discussion about whether China basically just decided to do the rational thing, which is to not help a dying regime.
RFE/RL: What would be the cost of that? As you said, other actors are watching -- they're seeing that a strategic ally of China is being dismantled and China is not doing anything. What does that do for China's reputation?
Riboua: China cannot change what is already being done. There is little actually they can do when a military campaign is dismantling every single launcher, ballistic missile.
The military superiority of the Israelis and Americans has been quite extraordinary, to the point where even these leaks and these assessments showing that China maybe is sending targeting [intelligence] to the Iranians will not change the balance of power.
In fact, China helped and sent a lot of weapons prior to that. It's not working.... It's just a reality of it that even if China tries to help, it cannot do much. Other countries are watching, but they are also looking at the fact that Iran is just not popular.
One of the things Iran did was that they were hitting oil infrastructure [of] Gulf countries despite the fact that these very Gulf countries -- for example, Qatar -- played a very good role for Iran as they were transmitting a lot of messaging, etc. And they still hit them. China is basically in a weird position where it cannot totally dismiss the Islamic republic but it also cannot alienate Gulf countries.
RFE/RL: [If] we were to look at possible end games where China loses or where it comes out ahead, is it fair to say anything short of maximalist US objectives -- a US-compliant Iran where Trump gets to say who the next ayatollah is going to be -- would be manageable for Beijing?
Riboua: I think so. If the operation leaves even a spark of hope for the Islamic republic to continue, China can still capitalize on some of the gains because there is already a structure for it. But it will be very hard for China to use Iran as a tool as it used to. Gulf countries [are] already discussing how to expand their security partnership with the US. The security dividend [of] aligning with Israel is already paying off. The UAE, for example, sees that....
There's also a calculus that China was doing for a very long time: that there is a US fatigue with foreign policy intervention, that the United States would just not do anything about deterrence or preemptive action. This operation just breaks that model. It just shows that America is going to do things. And that changes...the thinking of China, [which] actually made a huge bet that the US is in decline.
RFE/RL: The Strait of Hormuz -- its closure, partial closure, or effective disruption -- has emerged as a potential trump card, no pun intended, for Iran. For how long and how effectively can Iran play this card?
Riboua: Not for long. It's a very risky card that can only be played once. And it needs to have the maximum pressure effect on a US president that just sees oil prices increasing and says, OK, we need to stop. But Trump just didn't. He absolutely did not change his posture. He doubled down.... The Iranians were hoping that it would be a huge debate in the United States and trigger some sort of reaction. It just didn't happen, really. I mean, it happened for a day.
RFE/RL: Does that also mean it won't happen if it drags on?
Riboua: I don't think it can drag on precisely because it's harmful for China. China will either directly or indirectly make sure it doesn't go on because it's not just about the oil -- it's also about fertilizers, and [planting] season is happening very soon. So Iran is hurting its own partners in this operation.
I also just don't think they have the necessary military dominance to do so for very long. Every single military operation needs to have a political effect, and it needs to, in this case, happen very fast. It just didn't. So even if they try to continue, the Israelis are still continuing their decapitation strategies. [Iran doesn't] have enough weapons or ammunition to continue. So I'm less pessimistic than many analysts on this one.
RFE/RL: As one of the responses to the Strait of Hormuz closure, a potential seizure of Kharg Island appears to be on the table. And it may not be particularly difficult to take, but how difficult and costly would it be to hold, including political costs?
Riboua: I don't have a good sense of the cost, but what I can say is I think Trump spoke about it in 1988 in an interview, so he's been looking at it for a very long time.... It just actually shows, however, that even if the Iranians accelerate their threats, the US is just doubling down on the operation, that it's escalating so that it can establish deterrence.
This is the real story that matters: that the Iranians have very few options left. And every day they have fewer. So I think they are being cornered.
RFE/RL: How much of a game changer would Kharg Island's capture be?
Riboua: It would be a huge game changer, at least for Gulf countries. It would show the United States is actually willing to follow through every single one of its threats.... It already is, at this point. But yes, if it goes through and it happens, I think it will have a huge effect.
RFE/RL: There's an ongoing debate whether Moscow is winning or losing in this, and one camp points to the degradation of yet another Kremlin strategic partner. The other camp points to higher oil prices and the temporary lifting of sanctions. So which is it, really? Is Russia a winner or loser in this?
Riboua: Russia definitely loses a key partner that was helpful in countering NATO. People, when they think about NATO, they always think about the eastern flank. But the southern flank is as important. And Iran played a huge role in weakening it. The Russians were also in Syria, but in Libya as well. And the Iranians obviously played a big role in that. So because NATO explicitly considers Iran as a threat, I think that it's overall bad news for Russia.
However, [the Russians] kind of decoupled from Iran after what happened in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad. They don't need Iranians in Syria anymore. They're speaking to Al-Sharaa.
They don't need Iran in Armenia or Azerbaijan anymore. It's a US-led coalition right now. Even on the drones, Putin took all the know-how for the drones and transferred it to Russia in a facility in Tatarstan.
Russia is not as dependent on Iran as it used to be, but it was a very critical partner in pushing against NATO.... Obviously, people are talking about the sanctions and how they are making some gains. It's true -- the numbers speak for themselves. However, we have to also take into consideration the fact that Russia's deficit and economy, no matter how much gain they're making, will not cover up for their structural economic failures. They're not in a very good shape. So that's also something to take into consideration because it will be important in negotiations with the United States.
Because of this, the Russians and the Chinese are exploring perhaps wider negotiations or cooperation on energy between Russia and China -- but the Chinese will expose themselves to Russian sanctions. Deepening ties with China will be very difficult to publicly state with a United States that is very adamant to break that.... My personal view is that it depends on what the United States does to make sure that it's a loss for Russia.
RFE/RL: Will there be consequences for Russia providing intelligence support to Iran, even at the level of a slap on the wrist? What we've seen is quite the opposite -- sanctions relief, even if it's temporary.
Riboua: Yeah, I think [the Russians] are doing payback for the United States providing intelligence to Ukrainians. But they also playing with fire because for the last two years -- last year, especially -- they had a Trump that was willing to actually sit down and think about Russian interests.... I think they are closing that window.
RFE/RL: He'll be less inclined to do so?
Riboua: I think so.... Russia showing once more that it is targeting the United States -- I think it will change a lot of the administration's calculus.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Will Tizard
Strikes On South Pars Oil Field May Impact Ordinary Iranians, Say Experts
Strikes that targeted the largest oil field on Earth, an area called South Pars that is shared by Qatar and Iran, may impact ordinary Iranians, say experts. The facilities process fossil fuels that supply Iranian homes with both heating and cooking gas. The attacks, which followed Iran's strikes on Persian Gulf states' oil resources, also indicate a deepening of the three-week US-Israeli conflict with Iran, say analysts.
Estonia Calls For Unity As US-Allied Divide Grows Over Hormuz Crisis
WASHINGTON -- Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has called for unity between the United States and its European allies as US President Donald Trump signals frustration with NATO members after several resisted his calls to help Washington during its military action in Iran.
The dispute, driven by a deepening confrontation with Iran and rising global energy prices, is quickly becoming a broader test of transatlantic cohesion -- and of how the alliance responds to crises beyond its traditional scope.
Trump voiced frustration on March 17 after most NATO allies reportedly declined requests to deploy naval assets, including minesweepers and escorts, to secure commercial shipping through the narrow waterway, which carries roughly one-fifth of global maritime energy supplies.
Pevkur told RFE/RL that Tallinn is ready to discuss options with the United States and other allies, emphasizing that cooperation, not division, is critical.
"We are ready to discuss what the options are to solve the situation in the Middle East and also to ensure free trade," he said in an interview in Washington on March 17.
The Trump administration's push comes as Iran's blockade -- using mines, drones, and naval forces -- has effectively shut down the strait, sending oil prices above $100 per barrel and pushing US gasoline prices to their highest levels in months.
Divisions on Capitol Hill
The dispute also has put a spotlight on political divisions on Capitol Hill.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has backed the administration's position, warning that allies' reluctance could have "wide and deep" consequences for both Europe and the United States.
He described the situation as deeply frustrating and said it raises broader questions about the reliability of alliances in moments of crisis.
Democrats, however, urged a more cautious approach.
Senator Dick Durbin told RFE/RL that while NATO -- established in 1949 to collectively defend against the Soviet Union, of which Estonia was once a part of -- is being tested, it remains indispensable.
"We need to embrace our allies and build on our friendship," he said. "We don't need to find ways to divide us."
In key European capitals, many have made clear they won't participate in efforts to reopen the strait while active hostilities continue.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris would "never" take part in such operations under the current conditions, emphasizing that France is not a party to the conflict. But at the same time, he indicated France and other European countries could contribute to escorting commercial shipping once the situation "has calmed down."
Germany has taken a similarly cautious position.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed that the crisis cannot be resolved through military means alone, reflecting broader European concerns about escalation and long-term entanglement.
Behind the reluctance is also a practical concern: that European navies could become responsible for a prolonged security mission in the Gulf, effectively policing the strait after the immediate crisis subsides.
While Western Europe hesitates, some allies on NATO's eastern flank are signaling a more open approach.
Pevkur framed the crisis not only as a security issue but as a global economic one.
"The situation in the Middle East affects oil, gas, fertilizers -- everything," he said, noting that rising costs will impact farmers, industries, and consumers worldwide.
"At the end of the day, this affects every citizen."
He repeatedly stressed that unity within NATO is essential, warning divisions would benefit Russia, especially in its war against Ukraine, which has for more than four years depended on the support of Europe, the United States, and other Western allies to try to keep Moscow at bay.
"This is the time to build bridges, and we cannot lose our unity," he said. "Russia has always wanted to divide us."
According to Pevkur, rising energy prices linked to the Hormuz crisis will strengthen Moscow's position against Ukraine beyond the economic benefits of increased revenues from oil sales.
"When they see cracks in our unity, they are only winning," he said.
"When one ally is asking for support, allies should come together and see what we can do," he said.
He also stressed the importance of continued vigilance toward Russia, even as attention shifts to the Middle East.
"The threat is always there," he said, adding that while a full-scale war with NATO is unlikely, allies must remain alert and maintain close cooperation.
A Coalition Problem, Not Just a Policy Dispute
Veteran US diplomat Daniel Fried said the current impasse between Washington and NATO reflects both shifting European positions and the difficulty of assembling a coalition for a complex, fast-moving crisis.
Speaking to RFE/RL, Fried, a former assistant secretary of state whose career spanned seven US administrations, said European governments had initially signaled an openness to limited military involvement.
He pointed to a March 1 statement by Britain, France, and Germany indicating they would consider supporting defensive actions against Iran, including countering missile and drone attacks -- a position he described as relatively forward-leaning.
Since then, however, several countries have ruled out participating in naval operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting what Fried called a degree of movement "back and forth" in Europe's stance.
At the same time, he said the situation is not fixed.
"It's not clear to me that the Europeans are completely opposed," Fried said, noting that some countries -- including Estonia and potentially others -- have signaled openness to discussions about possible contributions.
He said European reluctance reflects a combination of political, strategic, and practical considerations, including the risks of escalation, public opinion at home, and uncertainty about the scope and duration of any mission.
Even so, Fried argued that European interests are directly engaged, arguing it is "in everybody's interest" to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and defend Gulf states against Iranian attacks, particularly given earlier European signals of willingness to take on a role in the region.
He suggested European governments could still look for ways to contribute, particularly in defensive roles or limited missions consistent with their earlier positions.
Fried also stressed that any such effort would not formally be a NATO operation.
Without invoking Article 5, he said, the more likely framework would be a "coalition of the willing," with individual countries participating on a voluntary basis rather than through the alliance as a whole.
"I think they ought to see what's possible and what they could do," he said.
- By RFE/RL
Qatar Hit As Tehran Vows Retaliation For Strike On Massive Gas Field; US Says Iran 'Degraded' But Capable Of Attacks
Iran threatened to attack energy facilities throughout the Persian Gulf region after announcing that its massive South Pars gas field was hit on March 18 in the first reported strike on the country's Gulf infrastructure since the US and Israel began a bombardment campaign on the last day of February.
Hours after Iran vowed to retaliate, Qatar reported a fire at its main gas hub, Ras Laffan, after an alleged Iranian missile attack, with emergency crews deployed to contain the blaze and state giant QatarEnergy reporting "extensive damage." Qatar demanded that Iran's military and security attaches and their staffs leave the country within 24 hours.
Saudi Arabia said it had destroyed four ballistic missiles headed toward Riyadh, and reported an attempted drone attack on a gas facility in the east. Fragments of one of the missiles fell near a refinery south of the capital, the Saudi Defense Ministry said.
Meanwhile, Iran confirmed the death of its intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, a day after it acknowledged that two other senior figures had been killed. In Washington, the top US intelligence official said Iran’s government "appears to be intact but largely degraded by Operation Epic Fury,” the US name for its military operation.
“Even so, Iran and its proxies remain capable of and continue to attack US and allied interests in the Middle East," US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate hearing. "If a hostile regime survives, it will seek to begin a years-long effort to rebuild its missiles and UAV (drone) forces.”
South Pars is the Iranian part of the world's largest natural gas deposit, which the country shares with Qatar, across the Gulf. "A spokesman for Iran’s central command said Tehran would “severely strike the origin of this aggression,” calling it legitimate to hit the attacker’s “fuel, energy, and gas infrastructure.”
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari described the targeting of facilities linked to South Pars as a “dangerous and irresponsible step,” warning that attacks on energy infrastructure threaten global energy security, regional stability, and the environment.
Qatar blamed Israel for the attack, which was also criticized by the United Arab Emirates.
Global oil prices -- which have risen as a result of the war and Iran's virtual blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for Gulf oil -- increased after news of the strike, which increased concerns about dangers to energy infrastructure in the region as the conflict persists.
“The attack...indicates Israel’s willingness to hit aspects of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and then of course Iran’s willingness to retaliate against other energy targets," Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
It's unclear if "Israel is going to start targeting energy infrastructure more broadly -- this could be a warning shot, a prelude to a more significant campaign. It’s also unclear if Iran’s retaliation against [Gulf] energy targets is going to be significant enough to deter additional attacks, given that its capabilities have been degraded," he said.
"So we will have to wait and see but this does suggest that without de-escalation , likely led by President Trump, this war is going to continue and could very well escalate to a point where energy becomes a more prominent target," Brew said.
Trump asserted on March 17 that the US campaign "will be over in a week or two and it won't take long." He did not provide a more specific time frame, but added that "everything is moving very quickly" and that "we are well ahead of schedule."
Gabbard's appearance at the Senate left questions about the state of Iran's nuclear program. Her prepared remarks said that Tehran's enrichment capability had been destroyed in US-Israeli strikes last June and that the US had not seen efforts to rebuild, while her oral testimony suggested Iran was attempting to recover from damage.
Intelligence chief Khatib was the latest in a growing number of senior Iranian figures who have been killed since the longtime supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, died on February 28, the first day of the US-Israeli campaign. His son, Ayatollah Mojtabi Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he was named as the new supreme leader.
Acknowledging Khatib's demise in an X post on March 18, which also named the head of Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, and the country's defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, who died in earlier attacks, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said that their "cowardly assassination" had "left us in mourning."
Early on March 18, a barrage of Iranian missiles killed two people in Israel, near Tel Aviv, as Tehran vowed revenge for the assassination of Larijani. Tehran said the overnight attacks, which brought the war's death toll in Israel to at least 14, were to "honor" Larijani's death.
A statement read by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on state television said the attacks used Khoramshahr-4 and Qadr missiles, both of which carry multiple warheads.
Israel has accused Iran of repeatedly using cluster munitions, which split into several smaller bombs midflight and spread over a wide area, making them difficult to intercept.
Iranian media on March 18 reported strikes in Lorestan Province and Hamedan city, both in the west of Iran, as well as the southern Fars Province.
Israel also intensified its strikes on targets that it said are related to Iranian-backed Hezbollah -- which the United States and Israel have deemed a terrorist organization -- in Lebanon. Several people were reported dead in the attacks, which are bolstering concerns that the conflict could be widen throughout the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Rosatom, the Russian operator of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in western Iran, said a projectile hit an area near the facility on March 17, though no damage or injuries or release of radiation were reported.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi reiterated the IAEA's "call for maximum restraint during the conflict to prevent risk of a nuclear accident," the nuclear watchdog said in a post on X.
Russian-built Bushehr, on the Gulf coast, is Iran's sole nuclear power plant; it is fueled by uranium produced in Russia, not Iran, and is monitored by the IAEA. Russia has evacuated some staff, but hundreds remain.
Several explosions were also heard in Jerusalem on March 18, following the Israeli military's announcement that it had detected a new wave of missiles fired from Iran.
Larijani was killed along with his son Morteza, his deputy Alireza Bayat, and several bodyguards, the Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in a statement late on March 17. Larijani was secretary of the council and one of the most powerful figures in Iran following Ali Khamenei's killing.
Separately, the IRGC confirmed the death of Qolamreza Soleimani, commander of Iran's paramilitary Basij force, giving few details. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had said Soleimani and Larijani were killed in the same series of strikes on March 16.
Khatib was killed in a targeted strike on Tehran, the IDF said. "Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, both with regards to the arrest and killing of protesters," it said in a statement published on Telegram.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Ministry had previously authorized the Israeli military to target any senior Iranian official without requiring additional approval.
The US-Israeli offensive against Iran has shown no signs of letting up, and air raid sirens were heard in several locations around the Middle East on March 18.
Several loud explosions were heard in Dubai early in the day as officials in the United Arab Emirates said the country's air defense systems had intercepted 13 ballistic missiles and 27 drones launched by Iran on March 18.
According to Emirati officials, more 2,000 drones and missiles have been fired at the country by Iran since the start of the war.
Trump said on March 17 that the United States had been informed by most of its NATO allies that they don't want to get involved with the country's military operation in Iran.
Trump had called for help securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively shut down with attacks on vessels and threats of more.
Some countries had said they'd consider such a move, but many others rejected getting involved.
A senior official of the United Arab Emirates said the country is considering joining the US naval initiative.
Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said negotiations are continuing in this regard, but a final decision has not yet been made, and emphasized that ensuring trade and energy security is the shared responsibility of major countries.
Iran's targeting of crude oil and gas producing nations around the Gulf has pushed energy prices up sharply in many countries.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda and Reuters
- By Amos Chapple
Amid US-Israeli Campaign, Iranian Kurds Watch And Wait
After initially voicing support, US President Donald Trump says he doesn't want Iran's Kurds to enter the military operation against Tehran -- at least for now. Still, one group of exiled Kurds is "preparing for war" just in case, according to a photographer who visited one stronghold of Iranian Kurds.
Photojournalist Sedat Suna gained access on March 12 to a mountain base of the Komala -- Reform Faction, an armed political entity of Iranian Kurds based in the northeastern region of Iraq that has recently been targeted by Iranian drone strikes.
The armed group is part of an alliance of several Iranian Kurdish political parties that was formed shortly before the US-Israeli military operation was launched on February 28. It seeks a self-determining region within Iran that would be similar to the current semiautonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
"They see [the war] as an opportunity," the photographer told RFE/RL, adding that the fighters insisted they are not waiting for a green light from the United States to enter the conflict in Iran. "They say they can make their own decisions."
A spokesman for the Komala party has vowed the fighters would "start the liberation," in the Kurdish region of Iran, provided the United States pledges support.
Kurds are an ethnic group of around 30-40 million people living largely across mountainous areas spanning parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. The mostly Sunni Muslim group is one of the world's largest ethnicities without a country of their own.
Iranian Kurds live mostly along the western border of the country and make up around 10 percent of Iran's population of some 92 million.
Kurdish relations with Tehran have remained tense since soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the country's new rulers launched mass killings of Kurds, who were viewed as a danger to Iran's territorial integrity.
Today, observers say there are immense complications involved with potential Kurdish involvement in the ongoing war in Iran.
Kamran Matin, an Iran expert at Sussex University, says exiled Iranian Kurdish groups enjoy widespread support inside Iran's Kurdish region, but he believes only a specific set of conditions would open the door to Iranian Kurds -- both inside and outside the country -- openly entering the war against the Islamic republic.
Firstly, Matin says, Iranian regime forces would need to be "significantly degraded in [Iranian] Kurdistan." Additionally, Kurdish groups would require an "explicit commitment from the US for long term military and political support in the form of the establishment of a no-fly zone over Iranian Kurdistan."
And, he says, they would need a US pledge of support for Kurdish rights within a future Iran.
That level of US commitment appears unlikely for now.
Amid reports the CIA was arming Kurdish groups in neighboring Iraq, on March 5 Trump stated he would be "all for it" if Iranian Kurds sparked an uprising. He later walked that back, telling reporters he had ruled out the Kurds getting involved, saying, "We don't want to make the war any more complex than it already is."
Photographer Suna says there is widespread goodwill toward the United States among the fighters he visited, with some bearing US flags on their uniforms.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, the authorities have ruled out the idea of Iraqi Kurds entering the war in Iran.
Qubad Talabani, the deputy prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, recently told reporters, "We're not guns for hire."
In a message apparently aimed at Iranian Kurdish militant groups in Iraq, the Kurdistan regional government has also stated that "Iraqi territory must not be used as a launching point for attacks against neighboring countries."
For its part, Tehran has threatened that if there is any incursion by Kurdish fighters from Iraqi territory, "all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...will be widely targeted."
Will Iran Mine The Strait Of Hormuz?
This tiny stretch of water carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil. And Iran is trying to close it by mining it. US President Donald Trump has put pressure on European allies to help protect the Strait of Hormuz, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if its members fail to come to Washington’s aid.
- By Frud Bezhan
Next Flashpoint In Iran War? The Bab Al-Mandab Strait Off Yemen's Coast
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to a massive US-Israel bombing campaign has wreaked havoc on world energy markets and sent oil prices soaring.
Things could get even worse, experts say, if passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial shipping route in the Middle East -- is also disrupted.
A choke point off Iran's coast, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and global markets via the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Likewise, Bab al-Mandab is a narrow passage for ships entering or exiting the Red Sea, whose Yemeni coastline is largely controlled by the Houthi rebels, an armed group backed by Iran.
A US-designated terrorist organization that has previously attacked international ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, the Houthis -- one of Tehran's most potent allies -- have so far stayed out of the US-Israeli war on Iran. If they do enter the fray, there will be even more shock waves across energy markets, experts say.
"The Houthis' threat here is a real one," said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait accounts for around 6 percent of the world's seaborne-traded oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, has been redirecting millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline since the war began on February 28.
"There's a large number of tankers that are now making the Red Sea transit to pick up crude" from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, the country's only other oil-export route, said Brew. "This is very important for oil markets because it relieves pressure from the total shutting of the Persian Gulf."
"But if the Houthis attacked Yanbu and if they did enough to disrupt exports from the terminal, then you're looking at" a disruption of 7 millions barrel per day, he said.
‘Fingers On The Trigger'
The Houthis have not made a formal announcement of joining the Iran war. But their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has said the group was ready to strike any time it sees fit.
"Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it," he said in a televised speech on March 5.
Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency said on March 12 that the Houthis were on full alert and could join Tehran's war effort. Fars warned that the involvement of the Houthis in the war could lead to the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
It is unclear if the Houthis' absence from the Iran war is deliberate or a sign of the group's current weakness.
US and Israeli air strikes have degraded the Houthis' fighting capabilities in recent years. The strikes were in response to the Houthis' missile and drone attacks on Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea. In May 2025, the group signed a cease-fire deal with the United States.
The Houthis are a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel. But the Houthis retain considerable autonomy and Iran has only limited control over the group's actions, experts say.
Another member of the axis, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, has opened a second front in the war by firing rockets and drones into Israel. That has triggered a devastating military response from Israel, which has sent ground troops into Lebanon and waged a deadly aerial campaign.
"I think the Houthis' fiscal and military situation would discourage them from engaging in large-scale hostilities," said Brew. "The US and Israeli campaigns did real damage to the Houthis' position in Yemen. They're struggling to pay their fighters."
But Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the Houthis' decision to stay out of the war is a calculated move coordinated with Iran.
"Rather than activating all fronts at once, Iran appears to be managing escalation gradually and keeping the Houthis in reserve," said Nagi. "In this sense, the Houthis function as an important card that can be played later, especially given their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping and create wider economic and security pressure."
Holding the Houthis back preserves that leverage, Nagi said.
"If the military pressure on Iran increases or the war enters a more critical phase, the Houthis could still jump in despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen," he added. "Their current restraint therefore looks more like timing than reluctance to get involved."